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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation Age and Gender for General Census of the population in Iraq by using nonparametric Bayesian Kernel Estimators
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The process of evaluating data (age and the gender structure) is one of the important factors that help any country to draw plans and programs for the future. Discussed the errors in population data for the census of Iraqi population of 1997. targeted correct and revised to serve the purposes of planning. which will be smoothing the population databy using nonparametric regression estimator (Nadaraya-Watson estimator) This estimator depends on bandwidth (h) which can be calculate it by two ways of using Bayesian method, the first when observations distribution is Lognormal Kernel and the second is when observations distribution is Normal Kernel

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of liquidity on the profitability and value of banks listed on Iraq stock market (An analytical study)
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  The purpose of the study is to analyze the extent of the impact of liquidity as an independent variable on profitability as an intermediate variable and the value of banks listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange as a dependent variable, as the research problem is summarized by the fact that most banks focus on profitability as a phased goal without focusing on maximizing its value as a strategic goal by enhancing the wealth of owners and shareholders. On the long term, the research community is represented by the banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange, while the research sample was deliberately chosen, which included three private banks such as Baghdad Commercial Bank, the Iraqi Commercial Bank and the Iraqi Investment Bank, an

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using system dynamics model and the statistical indicators for Road Map of "Green government departments" project In Iraq
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Abstract                                                         

The issue of the protection of the environment is a shared responsibility between several destinations and sectors, and constitutes a main subject in which they can achieve sustainable development. In the sectors of government programs can be set up towards the establishment of the government sector to the green environment, so to be the implementati

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Self-Esteem and its Relationship with the Age, Gender and academic Achievement among the students of the south Iraq Colleges of Nursing
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Abstract
Objectives: this study aims to: (1). Assess self-esteem level and academic achievement for students of nursing colleges in southern Iraq. (2). Determine the relationship between levels of self-esteem and academic achievement of the student in the first semester. (3). Identify differences of self-esteem with gender and different age groups.
Methodology: a sample of (426 students) was purposively selected then collected by using a questionnaire which consisted of: I- Sociodemographic characteristics for assessing some important aspects of students, II- Rosenberg's Self-Esteem Scale (RSES) III- Iraq Grading Scale for assessing student achievement. Finally statistical analysis (SPSS) for data processing.
Results: study resu

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 28 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Impact of some environmental parameters on phytoplankton diversity in the eastern Al-Hammer marsh / southern Iraq
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Biodiversity is one of the important biological factors in determining water quality and maintaining the
ecological balance. In this study, there are 223 species of phytoplankton were identified, and they are as
follows: 88 species of Bacillariophyta and were at 44%,70 species of Chlorophyta and they were at 29 %, 39
species of Cyanophyta and they were at 16 %, 12 species of Euglenozoa and they were at 4 %, four species of
Miozoa and they were at 3 %, and, Phylum Charophyta and Ochrophyta were only eight and two species,
respectively and both of them were at 2%. The common phytoplankton recorded in the sites studied
include Nitzschia palea, Scenedesmus quadricauda, Oscillatoria princeps, and Peridinium

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 22 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
التحول نحو أساس الإستحقاق المحاسبي لتعزيز المساءلة وإدارة الموجودات الثابتة للقطاع العام في العراق
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The research aims to present and discuss the accounting bases adopted in accounting for fixed assets in the public sector with an emphasis on its importance in the area of ​​accountability and fixed assets management , based on a realistic problem associated with the use of cash basis accounting in the public sector in Iraq, which are difficult  to provide accounting information useful for many users , including the same units and regulatory departments for the purposes of accountability and management of those assets. Search tool has been the organization questionnaire, its results show the importance of financial reporting for provide accounting information about fixed assets relate to the units of the public sector in Iraq fo

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 03 2005
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
التوجهات الفكرية الجديدة لانظمة دول العالم الثالث في ظل النظام العالمي الجديد : العراق نموذجاً
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التوجهات الفكرية الجديدة لانظمة دول العالم الثالث في ظل النظام العالمي الجديد : العراق نموذجاً

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Assessing the efficiency of the Economic performance of the general company for Vegetable oil Industry for the period (2003-2007)
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The State company for vegetable oils industry one of the most dynamic

companies in the Iraqi economy and is one of the companies manufacturing(food) that takes astrategic dimension and production within the concept of food security, this as well as to reduce dependence on imports and operation of national manpower.This study aims to describe the performance of the State company for vegetable oils industry for the period (2003-2007) which was characterized by economic and security instability of the country and give an accurate picture of their efficiency and their capacity to produce during this Period.    

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the relationship of public budget deficit on external debt in lraq with in the framework of joint integration of the period (1990 – 2016 )
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Abstract

The term public budget defects became nowadays a chronic, economical phenomenon, almost all the countries weather advanced or development country suffered from it, despite the different visions to economic schools of a thought to accept or reject the deficit in public budget but the prevailed opinion that is needed to rule the role of the state by reducing the public spending which led to continuous deficits in public budget and the consequent upon increase in government borrowing, increase taxes on income and wealth, thus weakening the in contrive for private investment which contributed to the increase of in flationary stagnation, it became a duty to state covered by the lack of financial sources

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Econometrics analysis of the impact of external shocks on foreign direct investment in Iraq for the period (1995-2016)
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The external shocks are one of the phenomena that the Iraqi economy is exposed to over a period of time. It is referred to as changes and events that come from outside the economic system and extends to many economic variables. However, foreign direct investment may be severely affected due to the extreme sensitivity to changes and local and international developments. This type of trauma and its characteristics to help manage and cope with external shocks, and in order to avoid the standard problems experienced by some models of simple linear regression, multi-linear regression models were used with variables Scientific and other dummy variables .

        The study foun

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