تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
The time series of statistical methods mission followed in this area analysis method, Figuring certain displayed on a certain period of time and analysis we can identify the pattern and the factors affecting them and use them to predict the future of the phenomenon of values, which helps to develop a way of predicting the development of the economic development of sound
The research aims to select the best model to predict the number of infections with hepatitis Alvairose models using Box - Jenkins non-seasonal forecasting in the future.
Data were collected from the Ministry of Health / Department of Health Statistics for the period (from January 2009 until December 2013) was used
... Show MoreThe rapid development of information technology and its use in all areas has had a positive impact on all areas, and financial markets have had a share of this development through the use of an electronic trading system to settle transactions, enhance transparency and disclosure in all activities of these markets and revitalize their performance.
The reason for choosing this topic is that it is a very important topic for what modern technology addresses in trading operations in financial markets. It is worth noting that these innovations have eliminated the need for direct contact with people, but through the Internet and telephone networks, and the new technology has reduced the costs of building systems
... Show MoreThe purpose of the study is to analyze the extent of the impact of liquidity as an independent variable on profitability as an intermediate variable and the value of banks listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange as a dependent variable, as the research problem is summarized by the fact that most banks focus on profitability as a phased goal without focusing on maximizing its value as a strategic goal by enhancing the wealth of owners and shareholders. On the long term, the research community is represented by the banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange, while the research sample was deliberately chosen, which included three private banks such as Baghdad Commercial Bank, the Iraqi Commercial Bank and the Iraqi Investment Bank, an
... Show Moreالتوجهات الفكرية الجديدة لانظمة دول العالم الثالث في ظل النظام العالمي الجديد : العراق نموذجاً
Özet
Sözlü Türk halk edebiyatı ürünleri içinde önemli yere sahip olan türlerden biri de atasözleridir. Atasözleri, nesilden nesile halk ağzında dolaĢan, kimin söylediği bilinmeyen, birtakım gerçekleri kısa ve öz bir Ģekilde ifade eden sözlerdir. Türk atasözleri Orhun Abideleri‟nde ilk kez karĢımıza çıkmakla birlikte, Uygur dönemi yazıtlarında ve özellikle Dîvânü Lûgati‟t Türk‟te geniĢ yer bulmuĢtur. Dilin anlatım ve kullanım imkânlarını geliĢtiren atasözlerine, dünyanın bütün dillerinde rastlanabilir. Bunun için, söyleyiĢte güzel, anlatımda güçlü, kavramda önemli unsurlar içeren kalıplaĢmıĢ sözler halinde bulunurlar. Bu çalıĢmada, Türk halk edebiyatında atas
The process of evaluating data (age and the gender structure) is one of the important factors that help any country to draw plans and programs for the future. Discussed the errors in population data for the census of Iraqi population of 1997. targeted correct and revised to serve the purposes of planning. which will be smoothing the population databy using nonparametric regression estimator (Nadaraya-Watson estimator) This estimator depends on bandwidth (h) which can be calculate it by two ways of using Bayesian method, the first when observations distribution is Lognormal Kernel and the second is when observations distribution is Normal Kernel
... Show MoreThe State company for vegetable oils industry one of the most dynamic
companies in the Iraqi economy and is one of the companies manufacturing(food) that takes astrategic dimension and production within the concept of food security, this as well as to reduce dependence on imports and operation of national manpower.This study aims to describe the performance of the State company for vegetable oils industry for the period (2003-2007) which was characterized by economic and security instability of the country and give an accurate picture of their efficiency and their capacity to produce during this Period.
Abstract
The issue of the protection of the environment is a shared responsibility between several destinations and sectors, and constitutes a main subject in which they can achieve sustainable development. In the sectors of government programs can be set up towards the establishment of the government sector to the green environment, so to be the implementati
... Show MoreCoronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models
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