تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Abstract:
The aim of this research to try to determine the type of expected relationship between inflation as the explanatory variable and market performance as a dependent variable, for that used data issued and published by the Central Bank of Iraq and the Iraqi Stock Exchange for a sample consisting of (159) observations using the intentional or intentional sampling method for the period extending between the months (January 2010 to March 2023), in the light of each of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Iraqi Stock Exchange Index, the number of traded shares and the number of market capital shares to ex
... Show MoreIn an intensive study of the various species of the Euglenophyceae under different environmental conditions, the algal samples were collected monthly in twelve springs and six related streams from September 2019 to August 2020 within Shaglawa district-Erbil Province in virgin areas for phycolimnological study. Twenty species of Euglenophyceaen are identified as a new record for the algal flora. These taxa consist of Colacium vesiculosum, Lepocinclis salina and L.wangi, Eutreptia viridis, Euglena chlamydophora, E. clavata,
... Show MoreIslamic banks are a financial institution that is interested in attracting financial savings from financial entities and directing them towards those with financial deficits, both for consumption purposes or for investment purposes. It provides banking services provided by commercial banks and other services But based on the principles and principles of Islamic law, and because of its recent emergence in Iraq, its ability to attract savings is not like non-Islamic commercial banks, which puts them in the option of using their capital to achieve its objective of banking. The research started from the premise that "Islamic banks in Iraq during the period (2008-2012) rely on their capital to perform their activities more than they rely on d
... Show MoreThe purpose of the research is to identify the role of Islamic banks in facing the financial crisis in Iraq for the period 2012-2014, and highlight the various factors that contributed to the emergence of the financial crisis, as well as to identify the problems and challenges facing the Islamic banking business in Iraq and identify the reasons and find appropriate solutions, And the development of treatments to avoid the occurrence of such problems and overcome them. The main findings of the research are as follows,Islamic banks (the sample of the study) were affected by the global financial crisis indirectly, as the financial crisis turned into an economic crisis affecting the real economy, because the activity of Islamic banks is more
... Show MoreВ статье рассматриваются понятие наглядности и ее классификация, эффективное применение принципа наглядности, возможность и преимущество использования наглядности и современные инструменты ее реализации в ираке.
Вследствие глобальных изменений во всем мире изменилась и роль иностранного языка в системе образования. Современный человек, шагающий в ногу со временем, не мыслит себя без зна
... Show MoreThe current research aims to analyze the content and and make a comparison based on the theory of art education as an organized cognitive area D.B.A.E. The researcher started by making a comparison followed by analysing the content to design a philosophical framework for content. He used these steps as starting point to study the comparison and some elements of art education due to the modern theories at the third intermediate stage in both Iraq and Egypt in light of the art education trend as an organizing cognitive area.
At different stages of the evolution of the modern Iraqi state ears last century did not receive the industrial sectors importance in great domestic production (GDP) and that the limited resources available in the initial stage and the dominance of public sector industry in the late stage , so the continued decline in the contribution of the private industrial sector in GDP , and this is why imbalance in the labor market and reduced demand for manpower in this sector despite the high rates of labor supply and the various skills and levels of investments, their human and the different geographical distribution , and direction of labor to other economic sectors most requested of the l
... Show MoreThe importance of government Expenditure policy in economy come from its role leading to the mitigation and adjustment of fluctuations in macroeconomic variables caused by imbalance between aggregate demand and aggregate supply, It is associated with the efficient management of government Expenditure to reinforcement the relationship between government Expenditure and the overall economic system .
Regarding the Iraqi economy,the increasing in financial rentier after the political change in 2003 has led to finance the budgets Characterized by consumption,The government Expenditure employed to encourage government employment in services jobs, and find different channels for the distribution of
... Show MoreThis research focuses on necessary state to develop and strong the financial sector in Iraq by consider that it is allow to achieve the financial flexibility and the enough currency to encourage the investment and economic growth , this picture will be coming by take and obligation the international criteria by general agreement on trade in services (GATS) that it is one of agreements of world trade organization (WTO). This mater doing to strong the legal and legislation environment founded international confidential , by it , the institutions and financial sector in Iraq will be more active.
The aim of the research is to highlight the income tax by direct deduction in Iraq and the most important problems and obstacles faced by this type of taxes and identify the reasons for the clear and striking differences in the deduction between those charged with the state departments to reach the exact calculation in accordance with the laws and instructions and the unification of tax deductions for similar cases and clarify Cases of confusion and ambiguity, and achieving justice by deduction, whether in favor of the taxpayer or financial authority. Under the laws and regulations in force.
The study was conducted on a sample of the salaries of the employees of the University of Basra, and interviews with account m
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