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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimation Mean Wind Speed in Iraq By Using Parametric And Nonparametric Linear Mixed Models
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In this research, the one of the most important model and widely used in many and applications is linear mixed model, which widely used to analysis the longitudinal data that characterized by the repeated measures form .where estimating linear mixed model by using two methods (parametric and nonparametric) and used to estimate the conditional mean and marginal mean in linear mixed model ,A comparison between number of models is made to get the best model that will represent the mean wind speed in Iraq.The application is concerned with 8 meteorological stations in Iraq that we selected randomly and   then we take a monthly data about wind speed over ten years Then average it over each month in corresponding year, so we g

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 18 2019
Journal Name
وقائع مؤتمر
واقع تطبيق خصائص الحوكمة في ميدان الإدارة العامة دراسة تحليلية في المنظمات العامة في العراق
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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Knowledge Management in Small Project Management Afield Study in Oxygen Ahli Plant in Iraq
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       Most of the literature on the management and application terkzat waved the last period on large organizations was the negligence  of  knowledge management in small organizations where research aims to find out knowleddge management, small projects  In oxygen Ahli plant in Iraq, and the fact the role of knowledge management in small projects from the standpoint of employees in order to achieve this used production method results.  The results showed that knowledge management has a role in the high level of productivity during the years 2010-2013. The results showed that knowledge management has a role in the high level of productivity during the years 2

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Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
التعلم ألمنظمي وأثره في نجاح المنظمات دراسة ميدانية في شركات وزارة الأعمار والإسكان في العراق
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The world witness quality jumps under radical change in the management and work styles, through adopting organizational learning as a process of continuous improvements in response to environmental stimulus, in the knowledge age and turbulent competitive environment the organizational success concept is shift from the view narrow for financial performance and marketshare to long term view which focus on building strategic capabilities that provide a sustainable competitive advantage.

Considering the strategic role assumed for the companies of the Ministry of Construction and Housing to play it, these companies have been chosen to be the field in which questions of th

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Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Apr 29 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
The net effect of the nominal protection coefficients in the production of table eggs and poultry meat in Iraq For the period 1990- 2013.: The net effect of the nominal protection coefficients in the production of table eggs and poultry meat in Iraq For the period 1990- 2013.
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The research aims to measure the net nominal protection coefficients for the products table eggs and poultry meat and the extent of its impact on domestic production volume for the period of 1990- 2013 has been the use of mathematical formulas simplified in the calculation of the transaction process with a view to the extent of support and protection offered by the state pricing policy for products Resources Sector Animal in Iraq and reach search Highlights and most important, there are volatile price state policy with regard to eggs and poultry meat, as it ranged net nominal protection coefficients between the larger and less than the right one, which means that values are unstable to support local producers or consumers, and can be The

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Prevalence of Parasites in the Domestic Pigeons (Columba livia domestica) in Zakho City, Kurdistan-Iraq
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Pigeons have accompanied humans since ancient time because they are used as a source of food, pets, hobby, and religious symbols. Pigeons have shown high prevalence rate of infection with gastrointestinal helminths and protozoan. This study was conducted to evaluate the prevalence of parasitic infections in the domestic pigeon (Columba livia domestica) from October, 2017 to April, 2018, purchased from bird market of Zakho City, Kurdistan region. The samples were taken from 50 adult pigeons (28 males and 22 females). The birds were transferred to Parasitology Laboratory, Faculty of Science, Zakho University. In the laboratory, each bird was sacrificed and immediately the feather and skin of under wings, chest and the rest of the

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effectiveness of public expenditure in correcting the Imbalance of Trade Structure in Iraq after year 2003
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This research aims to focus on the reality of the imbalance of the balance of trade structure in order to improve it and determine the size of the imbalance as a result of dependence on one commodity, namely crude oil in the structure of exports versus the diversity of the structure of imports of various goods and goods.

    In order to achieve that goal, a deductive approach was adopted, which included a shift from general theory data to special applications.

   We have reached through the research to a number of conclusions, most notably the effectiveness of public spending in correcting the imbalance of the balance of trade structure during the study pe

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Feb 28 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Social Dimension of the Phenomenon of Suicide in Iraq: Reasons and Proposals "Field Study in Baghdad Police Stations
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There have been many negative phenomena in Iraqi society, especially after the political crises over the last years, such as the spread of violence, the deterioration of the economic situation, the spread of unemployment and poverty, and the disintegration of social ties, divorce, and the entry of the scourge of drugs. Among the most dangerous of these emergent phenomena, the phenomenon of suicide among young people of both sex, which has grown and increased in an unprecedented manner, surpassing all known social norms in Iraqi society and the prevailing religious values. Suicide in Iraqi society has transformed from a simple case to a visible presence in all Iraqi provinces. Suicides cases have registered in all cities of Iraq and of bo

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 02 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
واقع واتجاهات بعض مؤشرات التنمية البشرية في العراق دراسة احصائية في اللامساواة بين المحافظات
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ان الحالة الانسانية في العراق تنطوي على تحديات كبيرة تتمثل بالفقر – والبطالة – وازدياد المدن العشوائية البائسة التي تفتقر الى المياه الصالحة للشرب ومنظومات الصرف الصحي – وتدني مستوى الخدمات العامة – والهجرة من الريف الى المدينة نتيجة تدهور امكانيات القطاع الزراعي – والتزاحم في المدن الكبيرة – وتداعيات التصحر – والتدهور البيئي – وتبديد الموارد الطبيعية – ومافيات الفساد والتهريب – وكذا الحال مع ا

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 26 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
تحليل الاداء المالي للقطاع المصرفي في احدى المصارف المدرجة في سوق العراق للأوراق المالية
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Analysis of the main financial statements (financial position, income, cash flow) using the analysis tools gives a clear picture of the results of the annual activity of the economic units, which contribute to the development of future plans and programs and identify weaknesses in the work of economic units including banks. Therefore, the indicators used in the analysis Would be feasible for the rest of the other sectors. such as Central Bank , Security exchange market , which will accordingly contribute in National product , determining market requirements , investor’s desires , knowing economic situation and providing liquidity in a timing manner.

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