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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimation Mean Wind Speed in Iraq By Using Parametric And Nonparametric Linear Mixed Models
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In this research, the one of the most important model and widely used in many and applications is linear mixed model, which widely used to analysis the longitudinal data that characterized by the repeated measures form .where estimating linear mixed model by using two methods (parametric and nonparametric) and used to estimate the conditional mean and marginal mean in linear mixed model ,A comparison between number of models is made to get the best model that will represent the mean wind speed in Iraq.The application is concerned with 8 meteorological stations in Iraq that we selected randomly and   then we take a monthly data about wind speed over ten years Then average it over each month in corresponding year, so we g

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The economic importance of diversifying income sources in Iraq, experiences of selected countries (Norway and Chile).
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The research dealt with a study of economic diversification indicators in Iraq and an indication of the extent to which economic diversification events are desirable in its sectors because desirable diversification events are truly the best means of targeting a fair distribution of income. The research included studying the experiences of selected countries for Norway and Chile, and studying economic indicators and policies for each of them in order to benefit From these two experiences, the research has concluded that the Iraqi economy suffers from a large concentration of the oil sector, which made the Iraqi economy unilateral in which oil represents 90% according to the Herfindel-Hirschman Index, either for Norway and Chile, i

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measurement of Government Debt Indicators and the most Its important Effects in Iraq for The period of 1990 – 2013
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Indicators of government debt is of extreme importanse in economic activity through knowledge of the economic impact of government debt, if the phenomenon is accepted or prepared to dangerous stage by stage, and there fore it can Through these indicators to measure the degree of indebtedness in relation to the economic activity of the Government on the one hand, the governments  ability to repay  the other hand.

      Due to this it inferred that the degree of indebtedness in Iraq  specificratio has exceed 60% during the period 1990 – 2002 ntejh lack of political and economic stability of the government, which led to the governments  inability to repay the ma

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Diversity, Abundance, and Distribution of Cladocera at the end of the Tigris River North of Basrah – IRAQ
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Seasonal variations of the species composition and abundance of Cladocera were studied in two stations at the end of the Tigris River and one station at the confluence of the Tigris with Euphrates area, at the beginning of the Shatt Al-Arab River in Al-Qurnah North of Basrah Province, from October 2015 to August 2016. Samples of zooplankton were collected by plankton net 100-µm. mesh size. The population density of Cladocera ranged between 1 Ind /m³ during summer and 211 Ind./m³ during winter at station 1 (Al-Jewaber Bridge). A total of 16 species of Cladocera belonging to 12 genera were recorded in the study. The average density of Cladocera ranged from 23.2 ind./m3 at Station 2 (Hamayon Bridge) to 53.7 Ind./m3

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The secondary vocational education and labor market requirements in Iraq (the period after 2003(
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Vocational education has great importance to comprehensive national development as it provides intermediate cadres able of operating the factories and laboratories in the farms and fields beside the work in the fields of health, service, administration and commercial. Due to the importance of this type of education in society, it is necessary to do a qualitative reform of vocational education in order to make the educational staffs get the necessary basic expertise to adapt the requirements of the labor market and try to rearrange and organize the workforce through put long-term economic and social policy through certain planning open to the workforce. The workforces structure according to gradual expansion in all the national ec

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 08 2026
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
MOTIVES FOR STUDENTS TO BE EXPOSED TO EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMS ON TV CHANNELS (Iraqi educational channels as a model)
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The educational function of television is one of the basic functions in light of the technical development that included the specialized satellite channels in all its fields, including the educational field, as its role became parallel to the role of educational institutions. These studies are among the descriptive studies in terms of the type of study methodology that describes the phenomenon, interprets its and extract the results and relationships between the variables. The study sample was multistage (random and intentional) included the students of the sixth academic and literary preparatory stage in the city of Baghdad.
The study problem was summarized by the following main question:
( What are the motives for the exposure of

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
اكليل للدراسات الانسانية
الخطأ المضمر في نطاق المسؤولية الطبيةدراسة معززة بالقرارات القضائية (فرنسا-العراق) انموذجا
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يقوم الخطأ المضمر على فكرة مبناها استنتاج الخطأ من وقوع الضرر، منشئاً بذلك قرينة قانونية بسيطة للمدعي (المضرور) تعفيه من اثبات خطأ المدعى عليه (المسؤول)، وهذا الافتراض في الاساس فكرة قضائية وجدت لمساعدة المضرور في الحصول على التعويض في حالة عدم تمكنه من تحديد خطأ المسؤول ، الا انه افتراضٌ قابلٌ لإثبات العكس من خلال نفي اي خطأ صادر عن المدعى عليه ، ويمكن نفيه ايضاً بإثبات انقطاع السببية بين الخطأ المضمر والضرر

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2015
Journal Name
Euphrates Journal Of Agricultural Science
MEASURES OF SPECIFIC PRODUCTIVITY, ACTUAL TIME, APPEARANCE AND TILLAGE DEVIATION FOR TWO PLOWS MOSTLY USED IN IRAQ
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Experiment was conducted in Baghdad, three factor were used in this research included Two types of Plows included moldboard and disk plows which represented the main plot, Three forward speeds of the tillage was the second factor included 1.85, 3.75 and 5.62 km / h which represented sup plot , and Three levels of Soil Moisture was third factor included 21, 18 and 14 % in all of Vertical and Lateral Plowing Deviation, Practical and specific productivity, actual time for plowing one donam and appearance (goodness) of Tillage represented by the number of clods > 10 cm in silt clay loam soil with depth 22 cm were studied. the experiment was used Split – split plot design under randomized complete block design with three replications and Le

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 11 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Hydrochemistry of Groundwater in Northeast Part of Anbar Governorate – West of Iraq
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A groundwater quality assessment has been carried out in northeast part of Anbar governorate in western Iraq. We analyzed hydrochemical parameters such as pH, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids presence of ions to describe groundwater quality. The study area has the only confined aquifer within the geological formation extended in area. Values of groundwater hydrochemical parameters were ranged from (7) to (7.9) for ph, (1599) to (6800) µmhos/cm for electrical conductivity (EC) and (1048) to (4446) mg/l for total dissolved solids (TDS). The origins and types of groundwater in the area were of marine origin and MgCl2 water type while only (6) samples were of continental origin and Na2SO4 wate

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The reality of manufacturing industries and ways to reduce the rent economy in Iraq (Future Vision)
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Manufacturing industries are at the beginning of the thinking of those who put economic policies in developed countries and also more in developing countries, where manufacturing is the engine of industrial and economic development through its performance and its effective role in the formation of GDP, as well as the great advantages that characterize this sector and affect Largely on sustainable development, as well as its importance in its influential role in protecting national industry through increased exports and reduced imports.

      Iraq is one of the countries that rely on its oil economy to rely entirely on the provision of needs and requirements of the state, and this

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