تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Abstract:
The research concerned the study of the railway transport sector in selected countries that sought to raise the efficiency of the railway network and develop it, after realizing the importance of this vital sector, which is a link between it and the rest of the other economic sectors.
The research sought to explain the methods, methods and procedures adopted by these countries for the development of the railway sector, and to benefit from these experiments to improve the efficiency of the railway transport sector in Iraq.
The railway transport sector in Iraq suffers from the erosion of railway lines and mobile units such as locomotives, pas
... Show MoreThe study area is witnessing divergence where I am North wind North East wind as we find that the north wind is getting replicated as we move from the south, The reason can be attributed to the nature of the surface of the region, with at least repeat this wind the northern region to the presence of mountain ranges, while we find that energizes the surface in the center and south helped to increase repeat this wind gusts, It also finds that the North wind East prevail in the northern region and least replicated as we move from the north to the south and to the fact that North stations are within blowing this wind sites for the circles near the display of high pressure located centers to the north-east, north and distancing itself from pa
... Show MoreThe social contract represents a set of laws and determinants agreed upon by a group of individuals in order to organize society for the better.This agreement guarantees them to live in peace according to the pre-agreed laws, and on the basis of that, it represents the key to resolving the crisis relations between the state and society, and this is what prompted Iraqi society to move towards the formulation of a new social contract through popular protest movements in 2019.To overcome the old social contract that shook the trust between the state and society as a result of its negative outputs at various political, economic and social levels, and many problems emerged that hindered the process of building the social contra
... Show MoreTo deduct the childhood status in Iraq, it was important manner to use statistical tools and approaches concerned with interpreting the causal relationships and their attitudes and use classification method for the important effects (variables) to draw an obvious picture of the phenomena under study in order to make it useful through investing, updating and improving it in by demographic studies in the future. Two statistical methods had been used in the field of analyzing data of multivariate analysis namely, Cluster Analysis and Factor Analysis.
The present study focuses on four fundamental axes .The nutrition axis, health axis, Educational axis, and the social axis. The study has ca
... Show MoreIndicators of government debt is of extreme importanse in economic activity through knowledge of the economic impact of government debt, if the phenomenon is accepted or prepared to dangerous stage by stage, and there fore it can Through these indicators to measure the degree of indebtedness in relation to the economic activity of the Government on the one hand, the governments ability to repay the other hand.
Due to this it inferred that the degree of indebtedness in Iraq specificratio has exceed 60% during the period 1990 – 2002 ntejh lack of political and economic stability of the government, which led to the governments inability to repay the ma
... Show MoreThe research aims to reveal the role of financial analysis in rationalizing the investor decision on the Iraqi stock Exchange market, by studying the relationship and impact techniques and methods of financial analysis on the decisions of investors in the market. The most important techniques and methods discussed in this study were: analysis (financial ratios analysis, comparison of financial statements analysis, cash flow statement analysis) for companies listed in the Iraqi stock Exchange market. The researcher adopted the analytical descriptive method which depends on the collection of data on the phenomenon and its interpretation. The questionnaire wa
... Show Moreاثر التواجد العسكري الامريكي على النظام السياسي في العراق
اهتمت المجتمعات العالمية في الآونة الأخير بفئة الأطفال ، ورعاية الطفولة وذلك لما لها من أهمية كبيرة في مستقبل المجتمع ، وتنميتة وتقدمه . لأنها يعتمد عليها في تقدم وتطور المجتمع فـي جميع المجالات الاقتصادية والاجتماعية والثقافية . ومن هنا ارتبطت الطفولة بالحياة برباط عضوي فالأطفال براعم الحياة ومع هذه البراعم تستمر الحياة لذلك اهتمت دول العالم بوضع البرامج وعقد المؤتمرات من اجل النهوض
... Show Moreيستهدف البحث الحالي التعرف إلى 1 .بناء مقياس سمات الشخصية المفضلة لدى معلمي ومعلمات التربية الخاصة في العراق من وجهة نظر ذوي اإلختصاص والعاملين في هذا المجال. 2 .مستوى توافر سمات الشخصية المفضلة لدى معلمي ومعلمات التربية الخاصة في العراق من وجهة نظر ذوي اإلختصاص والعاملين في هذا المجال. 3 .داللة الفروق اإلحصائية في سمات الشخصية المفضلة لدى معلمي ومعلمات التربية الخاصة ً في الع ارق من وجهة نظر ذوي اإلختصاص والعا
... Show MoreSeasonal variations of the species composition and abundance of Cladocera were studied in two stations at the end of the Tigris River and one station at the confluence of the Tigris with Euphrates area, at the beginning of the Shatt Al-Arab River in Al-Qurnah North of Basrah Province, from October 2015 to August 2016. Samples of zooplankton were collected by plankton net 100-µm. mesh size. The population density of Cladocera ranged between 1 Ind /m³ during summer and 211 Ind./m³ during winter at station 1 (Al-Jewaber Bridge). A total of 16 species of Cladocera belonging to 12 genera were recorded in the study. The average density of Cladocera ranged from 23.2 ind./m3 at Station 2 (Hamayon Bridge) to 53.7 Ind./m3
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