The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and the use of tests to confirm the accuracy of the grey model. After obtaining the results, the best method to estimate the parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the method of the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO) It has been used to treatment the missing values in the data and in the prediction where it has been shown to have the best results
One of the most important intellectual issues, which receive attention is the issue of modernity, it has occupied the scholars of all time. However, modern poetry used to have special care in Iraq and in the Arab countries .. it is not strange that the concept of modernity is linked to history .. or having history as the most important dimension of its dimensions .. because Arab poetry is historical and it is moving into an area of the past that is still active in terms of language and literary image .. When some poets found that changing and modernizing poetry became a necessity of evolution, and one of the fundamentals of modernization, the cultural impact did not respond to the desire of poets, and their impulse in modern poetry
... Show MorePerhaps going to watch movies in cinemas today has become different from what it was before. The cinematic film, the clarity of the image and the luster of its colors pulled the rug out from under the most important change that occurred in the structure of the contemporary cinematography, which is the sound. The surround sound environment that immerses viewers in the realism of sound that reaches them from all directions, and for this the researcher found it necessary to shed light on this topic because of its importance, so the research problem was represented in the following question: (How are modern sound systems used in the structure of contemporary feature films?) The theoretical framework included two topics: the first: the dialec
... Show MoreThe researcher studied transportation problem because it's great importance in the country's economy. This paper which ware studied several ways to find a solution closely to the optimization, has applied these methods to the practical reality by taking one oil derivatives which is benzene product, where the first purpose of this study is, how we can reduce the total costs of transportation for product of petrol from warehouses in the province of Baghdad, to some stations in the Karsh district and Rusafa in the same province. Secondly, how can we address the Domandes of each station by required quantity which is depending on absorptive capacity of the warehouses (quantities supply), And through r
... Show MoreThe logistic regression model is an important statistical model showing the relationship between the binary variable and the explanatory variables. The large number of explanations that are usually used to illustrate the response led to the emergence of the problem of linear multiplicity between the explanatory variables that make estimating the parameters of the model not accurate.
... Show Moreان الهدف من الدراسة هو بيان القدرة التنبؤية الافضل بين انموذج الانحدار اللوجستي والدالة المميزة الخطية باستعمال البيانات الاصليه اولا ثم المركبات الرئيسة لتقليص الابعاد بين المتغيرات لبيانات المسح الاجتماعي والاقتصادي للاسرة لمحافظة بغداد لعام 2012 وتضمنت عينة البحث 615 مفردة لـ13 متغير، 12منها متغير توضيحي والمتغير المعتمد شمل العاملين والعاطلين عن العمل، تم اجراء المقارنة بين الطريقتين اعلاه واتضح من خلال
... Show MoreNonparametric methods are used in the data that contain outliers values. The main importance in using Nonparametric methods is to locate the median in the multivariate regression model. It is difficult to locate the median due to the presence of more than one dimension and the dispersion of values and the increase of the studied phenomenon data.The genetic algorithms Minimum Weighted Covariance Determinant Estimator (MWCD), was applied and compared with the multilayer neural network Back propagation to find the estimate of the median location based on the minimum distance (Mahalanobis Distance) and smallest specified for the variance matrix. Joint Minimum Covariance Determinant (MCD) as one of the most nonparametric methods robust. The stud
... Show MoreThis study aimed at identifying the extent to which the social worker used the techniques of group discussion in the professional practice with the groups of school activity in the schools of Tubas governorate in light of some variables (gender, years of experience, academic qualification). The analytical descriptive method was used due to its suitability for the objectives of the study. A questionnaire was designed to collect data that included (30) items, distributed in three areas .The validity and reliability of the tool were verified and then distributed to the study sample.
The results of the study showed that the highest averages were in the discussion stage domain, where the pre-discussion stage was m
... Show MoreBasketball is one of the games that requires high physical effort because it is characterized by changing the level of playing rhythm and being an enjoyable competitive game because it includes many diverse offensive and defensive skills. The importance of research is related to developing these two skills because of their major role in influencing the performance of the game skill. The problem with the research lies in the fact that the skills performed by students are performed in a slow manner that is not consistent with the reality of the performance that should be during playing, which should be given in a competitive manner similar to the real skill performance in matches. The research aims to prepare competitive exercises, then fi
... Show MoreBackground and purpose: Animal model helps researchers to evaluate new treatment plan for human and understand pathological mechanism involved in a development of disease. The use of rats as an animal model for Alzheimer's research has become a favorite among researchers. Rats are capable in mimicking Alzheimer disease due to their intelligence and quick adaptation to nature. At present there are several methods that can be used to induce Alzheimer's animals, but each method has advantages and disadvantages. We need to learn other methods that can provide many advantages and few disadvantages. The Amyloid-beta 42 (Aβ-42) and Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) are thought to play an important role in the pathology of Alzheimer’s disease. Th
... Show More