Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Stripping is one of the major distresses within asphalt concrete pavements caused due to penetration of water within the interface of asphalt-aggregate matrix. In this work, one grade of asphalt cement (40-50) was mixed with variable percentages of three types of additives (fly ash, fumed silica, and phosphogypsum) to obtained an modified asphalt cement to resist the effect of stripping phenomena .The specimens have been tested for physical properties according to AASHTO. The surface free energy has been measured by using two methods namely, the wilhelmy technique and the Sessile drop method according to NCHRP-104
procedures. Samples of asphalt concrete using different asphalt cement and modified asphalt cement percentages(4.1,4.6 an

In the present work a modification was made on three equations to represent the
experiment data which results for Iraqi petroleum and natural asphalt. The equations
have been developed for estimating the chemical composition and physical properties
of asphalt cement at different temperature and aging time. The standard deviations of
all equations were calculated.
The modified correlation related to the aging time and temperature with penetration
index and durability index of aged petroleum and natural asphalts were developed.
The first equation represents the relationship between the durability index with aging
time and temperature.

log_e(DI)=a₁+0.0123(2log_e T

Moisture damage is a primary mode of distress occurring in hot mix asphalt (HMA) pavements in Iraq. Because of the loss of bond, or stripping, caused by the presence of moisture between the asphalt and aggregate, which is a problem in some areas and can be severe in some cases, it is requires to evaluate the design asphalt mixture to moisture susceptibility. Many factors such as aggregate characteristics, asphalt characteristics, environment, traffic, construction practices and drainage can contribute to stripping. Asphalt concrete mixes were prepared at their optimum asphalt content by superpave system and then tested to evaluate their engineering properties, which include tensile strength, resilient modulus, and perman

Hot mix recycling of asphalt pavements is increasingly being used as one of the major rehabilitation methods by various highway agencies. Besides general savings in costs and energy expended, it also saves our natural resources and environment.  Recycling process presents a sustainable pavement by using the old materials that could be reclaimed from the pavement; these materials could be mixed with recycling agents to produce recycled mixtures. The important expected benefits of recycling process are the conservation of natural resources and reduction of environmental impact. The primary objectives of this work are evaluating the Tensile and Shear Properties of recycled asphalt concrete mixtures, In addition to the

The present paper deals with studying the effect of electrical discharge machining (EDM) and shot blast peening parameters on work piece fatigue lives using copper and graphite electrodes. Response surface methodology (RSM) and the design of experiment (DOE) were used to plan and design the experimental work matrices for two EDM groups of experiments using kerosene dielectric alone, while the second was treated by the shot blast peening processes after EDM machining. To verify the experimental results, the analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to predict the EDM models for high carbon high chromium AISI D2 die steel. The work piece fatigue lives in terms of safety factors after EDM models were developed by FEM using ANSY

        The performance of asphalt concrete pavement has affected by many factors, the temperature is the most important environmental one which has a large effect on the structural behavior of flexible pavement materials. The main cause of premature failure of pavement is the rutting, Due to the viscoelastic nature of the asphalt cement, rutting is more pronounced in hot climate areas because the viscosity of the asphalt binder which is
inversely related to rutting is significantly reduced with the increase in temperature resulting in a more rut susceptible paving mixtures. The objective of this study is to determine the effect of temperatures variations on the permanent deformation parameters (perm

The aim of present work is to improve mechanical and fatigue properties for Aluminum alloy7049 by using Nano composites technique. The ZrO₂ with an average grain diameter of 30-40 nm, was selected as Nano particles, to reinforce Aluminum alloy7049 with different percentage as, 2, 4, 6 and 7 %. The Stir casting method was used to fabricate the Nano composites materials due to economical route for improvement and processing of metal matrix composites. The experimental results were shown that the adding of zirconium oxide (ZrO₂) as reinforced material leads to improve mechanical properties. The best percentage of improvement of mechanical properties of 7049 AA was with 4% wt. of ZrO₂ about (7.76% ) for ultim