The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

The mechanical design of elevator elements is always performed by international standards. The engineer selects the appropriate elements of elevator according to catalogues without knowing scientific details. Therefore, a theoretical analysis is achieved at two operating conditions for guide rails (1) safety gear operation, and (2) running condition with the loads unevenly distributed on the elevator car. The guide rail is considered a continuous beam with variable supports. Then the British code is listed showing the equations used in it.

The theoretical equations showed that guide rails are never subjected to stress in simultaneous combined buckling and bending in the plane, where the bending moment is exerted. It is always a c

Three hundred Iraqi people participated in demographic and attitudes study about red and white meat consumption. The mean age of the participants was 50 SD ± 11 years (mean 30-72); 51% were females and 49% males, mostly in forties who lived ≥ 5 years in Baghdad. The results showed that 80% of individuals prefer red meat. A 90% of people prefer fresh meat compared to frozen and processed meat. A 60% of people buy meat from popular markets. Nearly 87% of respondents believe the improving of livestock sector is essential and 80% of people confirmed there are obstacles to development this sector. An 80% of participates thought the reasons of the high prices of local fresh meat is the lack of plann

Background: Periodontal diseases are bacterial infections of the gingiva, bone and attachment fibers that support the teeth and hold them in the jaw. Lactoferrin is a multifunctional glycoprotein and it is the main component of neutrophil polymorphonuclear leukocytes that activated during inflammatory processes such as Periodontal diseases Aims of the study: Determine the salivary levels of Lactoferrin and pH and their correlations with clinical periodontal parameters(Plaque Index , Gingival Index , Bleeding on Probing , Probing Pocket Depth , and Clinical Attachment Level ) and the correlation between Lactoferrin with potential of hydrogen ion (PH) ,flow rate and α-amylase of study groups that consisted of patients had gingivitis and pa

Background: Many studies have been conducted to evaluate the effect of using a hot material in the root canal and its potential for causing damage to the tooth supporting structure. Materials and methods: thirty permanent premolars were obturated with thermoplasticized Gutta-Percha using three different obturation techniques: soft core, Thermafil, and obtura to evaluate the rise in temperature on the root surface using a multipurpose digital thermometer. Results: temperature increases was significantly greater for Obtura versus Soft core (p<0.003), not significant for Thermafil versus Soft core (p<0.087), and Thermafil versus Obtura (p<0.125). Conclusions: temperatures rise on the root surface were below the critical level and, therefore, s

This study examined the problematic of the ambiguous relationship between the media and terrorism and the problems that result from press coverage of terroristic incidents. The paper sought to show the classification and confrontation of such incidents had been established from the point of view of a sample of media professionals, researchers and writers who are frequenters of Al-Mutanabi Street in Baghdad. The media outlets that carry this coverage would not give up their media mission as well as the terrorists would not be given an opportunity to take advantage of this coverage in achieving their goals and objectives. Furthermore, the terrorist organizations would have no chance to exploit these means to deliver their terroristic messa

This research is aiming  to analyze the impacts of the current budget in Iraq by using  the Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM) , the research is based on hypothesis: (There is an impact on the using of the Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM) In public budget in Iraq) .This hypothesis was demonstrated by using the questionnaire, a number of conclusions were reached, the most important being the lack of terminology adopted in the government accounting system and the Iraqi financial and accounting manual as a result of their adoption of the monetary basis for the lack of accounting terminology that meets t

Background: Known as suxamethonium or succinylcholine, is a medication used to cause short-term paralysis as part of general anesthesia. The duration of operation is one of the important factors accounting to the success of the operation. Simple safe available drug can change the plan of anesthesia.

Objective:  The purpose of this study was to assess adding Lidocaine three minutes intravenously before induction of general anesthesia on the duration of optimum prolongation the action of  Suxamethonium  . With other group with regular meth

Research covers the uses the method of Quality Rating Evaluation to evaluate the
quality of production through which a determination of product quality of its production in
order to determine the amount of sales hence the profits for the company. The most important
function is to satisfy consumer at reasonable prices. Methods were applied to the product
(toothpaste) in the General Company for Vegetable Oil – Almaamoon Factory .
The company's has obtained ISO-certified (ISO 9001-2008). Random samples of
final product intended for sale were collected from the store during months (February, April ,
June , October and December) for the year 2011 to determine the "quality rating " through
the applicat

The trading banks in Iraq invest their funds according to regulations imposed by the Central Bank in Iraq in different financial fields like stock exchanges, acquire stocks as assets that could be sold at any time as well as make loans and contributing in corporations establishment also magnitude foreign capital through direct contacts with foreign exchange markets.

We can summarize the problem of this paper as shortage in mathematical models that used in studying and analyzing these investments and according to this problem we used (a constructed mathematical model ) consists of three major indicators: profitability of total investment assets which is divided into three sub-indicators: owners equity risk indicator, debits risk i