Artificial Neural networks (ANN) are powerful and effective tools in time-series applications. The first aim of this paper is to diagnose better and more efficient ANN models (Back Propagation, Radial Basis Function Neural networks (RBF), and Recurrent neural networks) in solving the linear and nonlinear time-series behavior. The second aim is dealing with finding accurate estimators as the convergence sometimes is stack in the local minima. It is one of the problems that can bias the test of the robustness of the ANN in time series forecasting. To determine the best or the optimal ANN models, forecast Skill (SS) employed to measure the efficiency of the performance of ANN models. The mean square error and
... Show MoreStatistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)
Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).
The time series of statistical methods mission followed in this area analysis method, Figuring certain displayed on a certain period of time and analysis we can identify the pattern and the factors affecting them and use them to predict the future of the phenomenon of values, which helps to develop a way of predicting the development of the economic development of sound
The research aims to select the best model to predict the number of infections with hepatitis Alvairose models using Box - Jenkins non-seasonal forecasting in the future.
Data were collected from the Ministry of Health / Department of Health Statistics for the period (from January 2009 until December 2013) was used
... Show MoreABSTRACT Background: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is one of the most common endocrine disorders affecting women in their reproductive age.It is characterized by anovulation or oligo-ovulation and hyperandrogensim.Androgen excess is the central defect in polycystic ovary syndrome. It is a complex disorder affects general health in addition to oral health.This study aimed to assess the gingival health status among a group of women with polycystic ovary syndrome as well as to estimate the levels of salivaryfree testosterone in unstimulated saliva in relation to gingival health condition. Materials and methods: Sixty two women with an age range 20-25 years old and with a body mass index range18.5-24.9 (normal weight) were included in this s
... Show MoreThe population has been trying to use clean energy instead of combustion. The choice was to use liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for domestic use, especially for cooking due to its advantages as a light gas, a lower cost, and clean energy. Residential complexes are supplied with liquefied petroleum gas for each housing unit, transported by pipes from LPG tanks to the equipment. This research aims to simulate the design and performance design of the LPG system in the building that is applied to a residential complex in Baghdad taken as a study case with eight buildings. The building has 11 floors, and each floor has four apartments. The design in this study has been done in two parts, part one is the design of an LPG system for one building, an
... Show More
One and two-dimensional hydraulic models simulations are important to specify the hydraulic characteristics of unsteady flow in Al-Gharraf River in order to define the locations that facing problems and suggesting the necessary treatments. The reach in the present study is 58200m long and lies between Kut and Hai Cities. Both numerical models were simulated using HEC-RAS software, 5.0.4, with flow rates ranging from 100 to 350 m3/s. Multi-scenarios of gates openings of Hai Regulator were applied. While the openings of Al-Gharraf Head Regulator were ranged between 60cm to fully opened. The suitable manning roughness for the unsteady state was
... Show MoreKinematics is the mechanics branch which dealswith the movement of the bodies without taking the force into account. In robots, the forward kinematics and inverse kinematics are important in determining the position and orientation of the end-effector to perform multi-tasks. This paper presented the inverse kinematics analysis for a 5 DOF robotic arm using the robotics toolbox of MATLAB and the Denavit-Hartenberg (D-H) parameters were used to represent the links and joints of the robotic arm. A geometric approach was used in the inverse kinematics solution to determine the joints angles of the robotic arm and the path of the robotic arm was divided into successive lines to accomplish the required tasks of the robotic arm.Therefore, this
... Show MoreTechnological development intersects with terrorism to a large extent, beyond the use of the Internet and social media, in order to spread ideas, obtain support and financing, and recruit new elements, to the area of tactics and techniques of terrorist attacks, and everything related to the arsenal of terrorist weapons in the present and future, while technology offers many benefits. In various fields, and contribute to achieving multiple gains for humanity, they provide extremist and terrorist organizations and elements with a set of weapons and means through which they attempt to bypass monitoring and control efforts and the restrictions imposed on the use of weapons. They also help in planning and implementing their terrorist operations,
... Show More