Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

The artistic concepts differ in their expressive and semantic relations, among these concepts are the artistic values, as there are points of view, social concepts and historical values interacted from one generation to another over the time. These values represent symbols and indications reflect reality, which has passed through the time to reach us with environmental forms saved by the history at the Natural History Museum, has an impact on the receives mind with its formal and sensory dimensions and connecting with that history as an environment that lacks to the current reality which has immortal means particularly in the cognitive thinking , and the reflection of that in the Iraqi culture and with the associated concepts of interior

المستخلص: هناك مشكلة تعاني منها الدولة وهي الأعتماد على الطاقات التقليدية الملوثة Abstract: The country suffers from a problem which is the reliance on traditional polluting and non-renewable energies and the failure to discover and exploit sustainable sources such as geothermal energy. The research hypothesis is whether the modern state’s orientation towards exploiting a modern energy source such as geothermal energy contributes in some way to achieving another source of energy and benefiting from it to enhance the building of a new type of state power from buried energy sources? And does artificial intelligence technology contribute to solving a specific problem by exp

  The general trend in Iraqi banks is focused towards the application of international financial reporting standards, especially the international financial reporting standard IFRS 9 “Financial Instruments”, in addition to the directives issued on the Central Bank of Iraq’s instructions for the year 2018 regarding the development of expected credit losses models, and not to adhere to a specific method for calculating these losses and authorizing the banks’ departments to adopt the method of calculating losses that suits the nature of the bank’s activity and to be consistent in its use from time to time. The research problem revolves around the different methodologies for calculatin

Wind energy is one of the most common and natural resources that play a huge role in energy sector, and due to the increasing demand to improve the efficiency of wind turbines and the development of the energy field, improvements have been made to design a suitable wind turbine and obtain the most energy efficiency possible from wind. In this paper, a horizontal wind turbine blade operating under low wind speed was designed using the (BEM) theory, where the design of the turbine rotor blade is a difficult task due to the calculations involved in the design process. To understand the behavior of the turbine blade, the QBlade program was used to design and simulate the turbine rotor blade during working conditions. The design variables suc

Background: The study aim was to evaluate thermocycling effect on microleakage of occlusal and cervical margins of MOD cavity filled with bulk filled composites in comparison to incrementally placed nanohybrid composite and to evaluate the difference in microleakage between enamel and dentin margins for the three materials groups. Materials and method: Forty eight maxillary first premolars were prepared with MOD cavities. Samples were divided into three groups of sixteen teeth according to material used: Grandio: Grandio. SDR: SDR +Grandio. X-tra: X-tra base + Grandio. Each group was subdivided into two according to be thermocycled or not. After 24 hrs immersion in 2% methylene blue, samples weresectioned and microleakage was estimated. Res

Under-reamed piles defined by having one or more bulbs have the potential for sizeable major sides over conventional straight-sided piles, most of the studies on under-reamed piles have been conducted on the experimental side, while theoretical studies, such as the finite element method, have been mainly confined to conventional straight-sided piles. On the other hand, although several laboratory and experimental studies have been conducted to study the behavior of under-reamed piles, few numer­ical studies have been carried out to simulate the piles' performance. In addition, there is no research to compare and evaluate the behavior of these piles under dynamic loading. Therefore, this study aimed to numerically investigate bearing capaci