Grey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "model structure", So that traditional GM(1,M) submitted to many trials of optimizations to getting rid this defects. This research shows the characteristics of the traditional GM(1,M), the problems it suffer from, the method of getting rid of such problems and presents two optimized multivariable grey model of one order derivative equation. the first one is called the Optimized Grey Model abbreviated as OGM(1, M) by adding the linear correction term h1(M-1)and the grey action quantity term (h2) to the traditional model GM(1,M) the latter is called Optimized Background value Grey Model OBGM(1,M) by optimizing the Background value of the last model OGM(1,M). We use two A realistic data represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022) to compare the two optimized models with the traditional represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022)). we use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the determination coefficient R2. To compare the two optimized model with traditional one. The results show that the two optimized have less values than the those of the traditional model GM(I,M), and that verify the correctness of defects analysis of GM(1,M).
In most manufacturing processes, and in spite of statistical control, several process capability indices refer to non conformance of the true mean (µc ) from the target mean ( µT ), and the variation is also high. In this paper, data have been analyzed and studied for a blow molded plastic product (Zahi Bottle) (ZB). WinQSB software was used to facilitate the statistical process control, and process capability analysis and some of capability indices. The relationship between different process capability indices and the true mean of the process were represented, and then with the standard deviation (σ ), of achievement of process capability value that can reduce the standard deviation value and improve production out of theoretical con
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Support vector machines (SVMs) are supervised learning models that analyze data for classification or regression. For classification, SVM is widely used by selecting an optimal hyperplane that separates two classes. SVM has very good accuracy and extremally robust comparing with some other classification methods such as logistics linear regression, random forest, k-nearest neighbor and naïve model. However, working with large datasets can cause many problems such as time-consuming and inefficient results. In this paper, the SVM has been modified by using a stochastic Gradient descent process. The modified method, stochastic gradient descent SVM (SGD-SVM), checked by using two simulation datasets. Since the classification of different ca
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The developed financial system is essential for increasing economic growth and poverty reduction in the world. The financial development helps in poverty reduction indirectly via intermediate channel which is the economic growth. The financial development enhancing economic development through mobilization of savings and channel them to the most efficient uses with higher economic and social returns. In addition, the economic growth reduces the poverty through two channels. The first is direct by increasing the introduction factors held by poor and improve the situations into the sectors and areas where the poor live. The second is indirect through redistribution the realized incomes from the economic growth as well as the realiz
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.
In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete
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In this paper, the process of comparison between the tree regression model and the negative binomial regression. As these models included two types of statistical methods represented by the first type "non parameter statistic" which is the tree regression that aims to divide the data set into subgroups, and the second type is the "parameter statistic" of negative binomial regression, which is usually used when dealing with medical data, especially when dealing with large sample sizes. Comparison of these methods according to the average mean squares error (MSE) and using the simulation of the experiment and taking different sample
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The pre - equilibrium and equilibrium double differential cross
sections are calculated at different energies using Kalbach Systematic
approach in terms of Exciton model with Feshbach, Kerman and
Koonin (FKK) statistical theory. The angular distribution of nucleons
and light nuclei on 27Al target nuclei, at emission energy in the center
of mass system, are considered, using the Multistep Compound
(MSC) and Multistep Direct (MSD) reactions. The two-component
exciton model with different corrections have been implemented in
calculating the particle-hole state density towards calculating the
transition rates of the possible reactions and follow up the calculation
the differential cross-sections, that include MS
يهدف البحث الى تطبيق إدارة القيمة االجمالية في تحسين تصميم عملية أنتاج معجون االسنان في مصنع المامون التابع للشركة العامة للمنتوجات الغذائية. وقد تمثلت مشكلة البحث في أن الشركة المبحوثة ال تقوم بقياس فاعلية تصميم العمليات فهي تعاني من ضعف في تحليل فاعلية تصميم العمليات في إطار مت ازمن مع أسلوب تطبيق إدارة القيمة االجمالية ، فضالً عن عدم اعطاء االنتباه الكافي لموضوع كلف المنتجات واسعار البيع ضمن ما يسمى بقيم
... Show MoreThis world is moving towards knowledge economy which basically depends on knowledge and information. So, the economic units need to develop its financial reporting system which helps to provide useful information in timeliness for investors in accordance with the requirements of the knowledge economy and meets the needs of those investors. This research aims to revealing the reflects of knowledge economy on the approaches of financial reporting and suggesting a financial reporting model in the environment of knowledge economy, depending on combining the value approach with the events approach using database and communication technology and providing useful accounting information for all users regardless of
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In this paper, Bayes estimators of the parameter of Maxwell distribution have been derived along with maximum likelihood estimator. The non-informative priors; Jeffreys and the extension of Jeffreys prior information has been considered under two different loss functions, the squared error loss function and the modified squared error loss function for comparison purpose. A simulation study has been developed in order to gain an insight into the performance on small, moderate and large samples. The performance of these estimators has been explored numerically under different conditions. The efficiency for the estimators was compared according to the mean square error MSE. The results of comparison by MSE show that the efficiency of Bayes est
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The need to exchange large amounts of real-time data is constantly increasing in wireless communication. While traditional radio transceivers are not cost-effective and their components should be integrated, software-defined radio (SDR) ones have opened up a new class of wireless technologies with high security. This study aims to design an SDR transceiver was built using one type of modulation, which is 16 QAM, and adding a security subsystem using one type of chaos map, which is a logistic map, because it is a very simple nonlinear dynamical equations that generate a random key and EXCLUSIVE OR with the originally transmitted data to protect data through the transmission. At th
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