Grey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "model structure", So that traditional GM(1,M) submitted to many trials of optimizations to getting rid this defects. This research shows the characteristics of the traditional GM(1,M), the problems it suffer from, the method of getting rid of such problems and presents two optimized multivariable grey model of one order derivative equation. the first one is called the Optimized Grey Model abbreviated as OGM(1, M) by adding the linear correction term h1(M-1)and the grey action quantity term (h2) to the traditional model GM(1,M) the latter is called Optimized Background value Grey Model OBGM(1,M) by optimizing the Background value of the last model OGM(1,M). We use two A realistic data represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022) to compare the two optimized models with the traditional represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022)). we use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the determination coefficient R2. To compare the two optimized model with traditional one. The results show that the two optimized have less values than the those of the traditional model GM(I,M), and that verify the correctness of defects analysis of GM(1,M).
يعد أنموذج الانحدار اللوجستي من نماذج الانحدار المهمة، حيث يلقى اهتماماً واضحاً في معظم الدراسات التي تأخذ طابعاً اكثر تقدماً في عملية التحليل الاحصائي. أن طرائق التقدير الاعتيادية تفشل في التعامل مع البيانات التي تتضمن وجود القيم الشاذة حيث أن لها تأثير غير مرغوب على النتائج. سنستعرض في هذا البحث طرائق لتقدير معلمات انموذج الانحدار اللوجستي وهذه الطرائق هي: طريقة مقدر لابلاس (Laplace estimator) (LP-) وطريقة مقدر هوب
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History matching is a significant stage in reservoir modeling for evaluating past reservoir performance and predicting future behavior. This paper is primarily focused on the calibration of the dynamic reservoir model for the Meshrif formation, which is the main reservoir in the Garraf oilfield. A full-field reservoir model with 110 producing wells is constructed using a comprehensive dataset that includes geological, pressure-volume-temperature (PVT), and rock property information. The resulting 3D geologic model provides detailed information on water saturation, permeability, porosity, and net thickness to gross thickness for each grid cell, and forms the basis for constructing the dynamic reservoir model. The dynamic reservoir mo
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It has been shown in ionospheric research that calculation of the total electron content (TEC) is an important factor in global navigation system. In this study, TEC calculation was performed over Baghdad city, Iraq, using a combination of two numerical methods called composite Simpson and composite Trapezoidal methods. TEC was calculated using the line integral of the electron density derived from the International reference ionosphere IRI2012 and NeQuick2 models from 70 to 2000 km above the earth surface. The hour of the day and the day number of the year, R12, were chosen as inputs for the calculation techniques to take into account latitudinal, diurnal and seasonal variation of TEC. The results of latitudinal variation of TE
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The aim of this study is to provide an overview of various models to study drug diffusion for a sustained period into and within the human body. Emphasized the mathematical compartment models using fractional derivative (Caputo model) approach to investigate the change in sustained drug concentration in different compartments of the human body system through the oral route or the intravenous route. Law of mass action, first-order kinetics, and Fick's perfusion principle were used to develop mathematical compartment models representing sustained drug diffusion throughout the human body. To adequately predict the sustained drug diffusion into various compartments of the human body, consider fractional derivative (Caputo model) to investiga
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Diyala river is the most important tributaries in Iraq, this river suffering from pollution, therefore, this research aimed to predict organic pollutants that represented by biological oxygen demand BOD, and inorganic pollutants that represented by total dissolved solids TDS for Diyala river in Iraq, the data used in this research were collected for the period from 2011-2016 for the last station in the river known as D17, before the river meeting Tigris river in Baghdad city. Analysis Neural Network ANN was used in order to find the mathematical models, the parameters used to predict BOD were seven parameters EC, Alk, Cl, K, TH, NO3, DO, after removing the less importance parameters. While the parameters that used to predict TDS were fourte
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to show the concepts of nuclear shape and the geometrical picture to the even-even nuclei of 164,166,168E isotopes in the context of the Interacting boson Model IBM-1. The energy spectra were calculated and the effective charge values (eB) of the electromagnetic transition strength were obtained and used to calculate the B(E2) values of the electromagnetic transitions and the quadrupole moment Q of 2+ -states. The Hamiltonian parameters were calculated by taking in account the properties of these nuclei. Comparison were made with the available experimental data and included in tables. The geometrical picture of these nuclei were looked at by calculating the deformation which were represented by the potentia
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The phenomenon of financial failure is one of the phenomena that requires special attention and in-depth study due to its significant impact on various parties, whether they are internal or external and those who benefit from financial performance reports. With the increase in cases of bankruptcy and default facing companies and banks, interest has increased in understanding the reasons that led to this financial failure. This growing interest should be a reason to develop models and analytical methods that help in the early detection of this increasing phenomenon in recent year . The research examines the use of
... Show Moreأن أهمية البحث تكمن في أعداد منهج تعليمي مقترح وفق أنموذج بايبي وتعلم مهارتي الاعداد وأستقبال الارسال بالكرة الطائرة للطالبات وتكمن أهمية أنموذج بايبي بالمساعدة على توظيف المعلومات في المواقف المختلفة،وان مشكلة البحث جاءت بعد أطلاع الباحثات على الدراسات والمصادر السابقة لاحظت بأن هناك ضعف في الاداء المهاري في مهارتي الاعداد وأستقبال الارسال بالكرة الطائرة من قبل الطالبات لذلك أرتأت الباحثات الى التع
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The undimensionality hypothesis which is item response theory depend it is unable in some of measurement situations because there are many dimensions which are affect of the response, so as the researches reached to expand this hypothesis to construct a new one which is multidimensional, and many of theories are pointed to the concept of meaning of life is multidimensionality, so this research aimed to construct the scale of meaning of life as the student's perception according with Multidimensional Item Response Model and this research adopt Wong's theory 1998 which point to the meaning of life consist of (7) dimensions. The research tool contains (49) items distributed at dimensions of meaning of life. Sample of statistical ana
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