Grey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "model structure", So that traditional GM(1,M) submitted to many trials of optimizations to getting rid this defects. This research shows the characteristics of the traditional GM(1,M), the problems it suffer from, the method of getting rid of such problems and presents two optimized multivariable grey model of one order derivative equation. the first one is called the Optimized Grey Model abbreviated as OGM(1, M) by adding the linear correction term h1(M-1)and the grey action quantity term (h2) to the traditional model GM(1,M) the latter is called Optimized Background value Grey Model OBGM(1,M) by optimizing the Background value of the last model OGM(1,M). We use two A realistic data represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022) to compare the two optimized models with the traditional represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022)). we use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the determination coefficient R2. To compare the two optimized model with traditional one. The results show that the two optimized have less values than the those of the traditional model GM(I,M), and that verify the correctness of defects analysis of GM(1,M).
Abstract
The multiple linear regression model of the important regression models used in the analysis for different fields of science Such as business, economics, medicine and social sciences high in data has undesirable effects on analysis results . The multicollinearity is a major problem in multiple linear regression. In its simplest state, it leads to the departure of the model parameter that is capable of its scientific properties, Also there is an important problem in regression analysis is the presence of high leverage points in the data have undesirable effects on the results of the analysis , In this research , we present some of
... Show More
The impact of cartoon concepts strategy in the Achievement of the first grade student's average in geography and visual thinking
The study aimed to measure the impact of cartoon concepts strategy to Achievement, visual thinking in the first grade students in the average geographical material.
Find sample consisted of 52 students were divided into two groups, the first experimental studied strategy cartoon concepts and the control group was studied in the traditional manner of parity between the two variables (chronological age, the overall rate, prior knowledge, the degree of intelligence, visual) thinking.
... Show MoreThe process of coordination and joint cooperation between SAIs and internal auditors in the public sector is considered one of the very important matters in performing efficient audits and are of high quality, especially if this coordination and cooperation is implemented in accordance with international standards, as it leads to avoiding duplication in auditing work. And the distribution of work in a distribution that achieves the objectives of auditing in general and is of general benefit to the economic unit.
The research problem lies in the weakness of the relationship between internal auditing and external auditing as a result of not applying INTOSAI Standard (9150) coordination and joint cooperation
... Show MoreAbstract
The study aims to clarify the impact of the adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS16) on lease contracts in the General Iraqi Insurance Company on the financial statements, and thus the impact on financial ratios and indicators, Since the financial reporting standard considers lease contracts as an asset called the right to use the asset and is offset by a liability, this changes the way the financial statements are presented, with an addition to both the asset and liability sides. In order to show the extent to which the adoption of the standard reflects on the financial performance
... Show MoreA comparison of double informative and non- informative priors assumed for the parameter of Rayleigh distribution is considered. Three different sets of double priors are included, for a single unknown parameter of Rayleigh distribution. We have assumed three double priors: the square root inverted gamma (SRIG) - the natural conjugate family of priors distribution, the square root inverted gamma – the non-informative distribution, and the natural conjugate family of priors - the non-informative distribution as double priors .The data is generating form three cases from Rayleigh distribution for different samples sizes (small, medium, and large). And Bayes estimators for the parameter is derived under a squared erro
... Show More
The remove of direct blue (DB71) anionic dye on flint clay in aqueous solution was investigated by using a batch system for various dye concentrations. The contact time, pH, adsorbent dose, and temperature was studied under batch adsorption technique. The data of adsorption equilibrium fit with isotherm Langmuar and Freiundlich ,when the correlation coefficient used to elucidate the best fitting isotherm model. The thermodynamic parameters such as, ?Hº ,?Sº and ?Gº. Thermodynamic analysis indicated that the sorption of the dyes onto Flint clay was endothermic and spontaneous.
In this paper, an ecological model with stage-structure in prey population, fear, anti-predator and harvesting are suggested. Lotka-Volterra and Holling type II functional responses have been assumed to describe the feeding processes . The local and global stability of steady points of this model are established. Finally, the global dynamics are studied numerically to investigate the influence of the parameters on the solutions of the system, especially the effect of fear and anti-predation.
(1)
As the banking sector is a strong influence on the country's economic growth,The solid financial well-being of anybank does not mean only a guarantee for its investors, It is also important for both owners and workers and for theeconomy in all its joints.The elements of capital adequacy and quality of assets are important to the functioning of thebanking business.In this study, the research sample included four private banks. Quarterly data were used for the period(2011 - 2018).Moreover, data is also collected from articles, papers, the World Wide Web (the Internet) and specializedinternational journals.In this research, an effort was made to try to find out the effect of (the ratio of the capital owned todeposits on the value of the bank),
... Show More
In this paper, a method based on modified adomian decomposition method for solving Seventh order integro-differential equations (MADM). The distinctive feature of the method is that it can be used to find the analytic solution without transformation of boundary value problems. To test the efficiency of the method presented two examples are solved by proposed method.
In this paper, we present new algorithm for the solution of the nonlinear high order multi-point boundary value problem with suitable multi boundary conditions. The algorithm is based on the semi-analytic technique and the solutions are calculated in the form of a rapid convergent series. It is observed that the method gives more realistic series solution that converges very rapidly in physical problems. Illustrative examples are provided to demonstrate the efficiency and simplicity of the proposed method in solving this type of multi- point boundary value problems.