Grey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "model structure", So that traditional GM(1,M) submitted to many trials of optimizations to getting rid this defects. This research shows the characteristics of the traditional GM(1,M), the problems it suffer from, the method of getting rid of such problems and presents two optimized multivariable grey model of one order derivative equation. the first one is called the Optimized Grey Model abbreviated as OGM(1, M) by adding the linear correction term h1(M-1)and the grey action quantity term (h2) to the traditional model GM(1,M) the latter is called Optimized Background value Grey Model OBGM(1,M) by optimizing the Background value of the last model OGM(1,M). We use two A realistic data represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022) to compare the two optimized models with the traditional represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022)). we use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the determination coefficient R2. To compare the two optimized model with traditional one. The results show that the two optimized have less values than the those of the traditional model GM(I,M), and that verify the correctness of defects analysis of GM(1,M).
Abstract
Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous varia
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يدور هذا البحث حول جمع الالفاظ التي تتعلق بأعضاء جسم الانسان في ديوان محمد مصطفى الماحيّ, وترتيبها في حقول دَلاليّة على وفق دراسة معجمية, تناولت فيها الالفاظ التي تتعلّق بأعضاء جسم الانسان, فكان الهدف من هذه الدراسة هو دراسة الألفاظ التي ترتبط دَلالتها بمفهوم عام يجمعها حقل دلاليّ واحد كجمع الفاظ (الرأس, والعين, والانف), تحت مفهوم (أعضاء الانسان) وبيان العلاقات الدَلاليّة بين هذه الالفاظ, كــ (الترادف والمشترك
... Show MoreThe optical absorption data of Hydrogenated Amorphous Silicon was analyzed using a Dunstan model of optical absorption in amorphous semiconductors. This model introduces disorder into the band-band absorption through a linear exponential distribution of local energy gaps, and it accounts for both the Urbach and Tauc regions of the optical absorption edge.Compared to other models of similar bases, such as the O’Leary and Guerra models, it is simpler to understand mathematically and has a physical meaning. The optical absorption data of Jackson et al and Maurer et al were successfully interpreted using Dunstan’s model. Useful physical parameters are extracted especially the band to the band energy gap , which is the energy gap in the a
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The study of triples seeks to deal with the comprehensive nature of the Qur’an texts, and the choice fell on the trilogy of great torment, pain, and humiliation in the Noble Qur’an - an objective study, the title of this research, in which I tried to shed light on these terms, and the nuances between them, and in particular torment The eschatological terminology varied, which can be summed up in three terms, namely the great, the painful, and the offensive. The types of torment, the pain is the painful one that is described by the severity of pain and its horror, as for the humiliating punishment, it is that which humiliates the one who has fallen on it, and the diversity of torment is due to the diversity of sins.
يهدف هذا البحث الى بيان مفهوم محاسبة التحوط والمعاملات بالعملة الاجنبية والمشاكل الناجمة عن التعامل بها وتسليط الضوء على القواعد المحاسبية المحلية والدولية المتعلقة بمحاسبة التحوط للحد من مخاطر التقلبات في اسعار صرف العملة التي تتعرض لها الوحدات من خلال جعل الابلاغ المالي للوحدات المحلية بالتوافق مع المعايير الدولية للإبلاغ المالي ولإنجاز هذا الهدف تم اختيار عينة من الوحدات الاقتصادية الع
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يعد بيان التدفق النقدي من البيانات المهمة الصادرة من الوحدات الحكومية غير الهادفة للربح، بعد تبنيها معايير IPSASs ، مما يوفر معلومات اوسع تلبي حاجات المستخدمين لأتخاذ القرارات المناسبة . أذ يتضمن بيان التدفق النقدي بموجب المعيار رقم ( 2 ) التدفقات النقدية حسب الأنشطة التشغيلية و الاستثمارية والتمويلية ، وهذا لا ينسجم مع مخرجات النظام المحاسبي الحكومي العراقي . وان هدف البحث هو التعرف
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Abstract:
The research aims to monitor the image of the man in the group (The Cart and the Rain) by the storyteller (Badiaa Amin); With the aim of highlighting an aspect of feminist writing, especially with regard to the relationship of women to men, and determining the form adopted by the storyteller in drawing the features of men.
The research used the descriptive-analytical method in the space of its textual formation, which aims to stand on the text and deconstruct its narrative significance. To provide a comprehensive picture of it.
Three images of the man appeared in the group's stories, represented by (the authoritarian, the negative, and the positive), and the image of the authoritarian ma
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It is not often easy to identify a certain group of words as a lexical bundle, since the same set of words can be, in different situations, recognized as idiom, a collocation, a lexical phrase or a lexical bundle. That is, there are many cases where the overlap among the four types is plausible. Thus, it is important to extract the most identifiable and distinguishable characteristics with which a certain group of words, under certain conditions, can be recognized as a lexical bundle, and this is the task of this paper.
ABSTRACT
The research aims to clarify the role of electronic marketing and what it can achieve in promoting the products of the national industry in Iraq. Marketing channel depends on modern communication and information technology that industrial and metal companies can use in promoting and selling their products along with traditional marketing outlets. To achieve the objectives of the research, a questionnaire was used, which consists of three axes, the first includes the personal data of the sample (gender, age, educational attainment, place of residence, marital status, income level), while the second axis includes various questions about the products of the national industry. Third axis includes que
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