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The Bayesian Estimation in Competing Risks Analysis for Discrete Survival Data under Dynamic Methodology with Application to Dialysis Patients in Basra/ Iraq
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Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete hazard function and the time-dependent parameters, two estimation methods have been used that depend on the Bayes method according to dynamic modeling: the Maximum A Posterior method (MAP) This method was done using numerical methods represented by a Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation maximization algorithm (EM), the other method is represented by the Hybrid Markov Chains Monte Carlo (HMCMC) method using the Metropolis Hasting algorithm (MH) and Gypsum sampling (GS). It was concluded that survival analysis by descretization the data into a set of intervals is more flexible and fluid, as this allows analyzing risks and diagnosing impacts that vary over time. The study was applied in the survival analysis on dialysis until either death occurred due to kidney failure or the competing event, represented by kidney transplantation. The most important variables affecting the patient’s cessation of dialysis were also identified for both events in this research.

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 20 2023
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Application of GIS and Remote Sensing Techniques for Hydromorphometric Analysis of Wadi Al-Mohammadi Basin, Western Iraq
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Hydromorphometric analysis as a method is considered one of the most reliable and used methods in solving hydrological problems. Where it is possible to know the volume of runoff and the rest of the elements that enter into the water balance. Geographical Information System and Remote Sensing is the technique that used the hydro-morphometric analysis of the Wadi Al-Mohammadi basin. Wadi Al-Mohammadi, located in the Western Desert, is one of the main valleys that flow into the Euphrates River. It is considered an important basin, because of its many characteristics, including its relatively large area and the amount of water drained through, which is used mainly in watering livestock and agriculture, in addition to industrial purposes suc

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Internal Audit in Assessing the Risks of Management Decisions regarding Strategic Operations )Acquisition)
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The research aims to verify the Role of Internal Auditing in Assessing the Risks of Strategic Operations (Acquisition) and then reflect on management decisions. Since all corporations wish to expand, growth and domination of the market may expose them to multiple risks that lead to failure. The research assumes two main hypotheses. First, there is no role for internal audit in evaluating the strategic operations (acquisition). Second, there is no relationship between internal auditing in assessing the risks of strategic operations (Acquisition) and management decisions. The data was collected by using a questionnaire distributed to a group of private bank employees. The statistical analysis regarding research rejected the two hyp

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 03 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Fitting Scoring Rubrics for Electronic Portfolio to Partial Credit Model According to the Number of Assumed Dimensions
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Abstract

 

The current research aims to reveal the extent to which all scoring rubrics data for the electronic work file conform to the partial estimation model according to the number of assumed dimensions. The study sample consisted of (356) female students. The study concluded that the list with the one-dimensional assumption is more appropriate than the multi-dimensional assumption, The current research recommends preparing unified correction rules for the different methods of performance evaluation in the basic courses. It also suggests the importance of conducting studies aimed at examining the appropriateness of different evaluation methods for models of response theory to the

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model to Measure the Profitability of Some Iraqi Private Commercial Banks with Presence of Outliers
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A seemingly uncorrelated regression (SUR) model is a special case of multivariate models, in which the error terms in these equations are contemporaneously related. The method estimator (GLS) is efficient because it takes into account the covariance structure of errors, but it is also very sensitive to outliers. The robust SUR estimator can dealing outliers. We propose two robust methods for calculating the estimator, which are (S-Estimations, and FastSUR). We find that it significantly improved the quality of SUR model estimates. In addition, the results gave the FastSUR method superiority over the S method in dealing with outliers contained in the data set, as it has lower (MSE and RMSE) and higher (R-Squared and R-Square Adjus

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 04 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of agricultural insurance in the prevention of financing risks in the form of slam : "An Empirical Study on Shikan Insurance and Reinsurance Company
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The aim of this research is to introduce agricultural insurance, to define financing in the form of salam and the role of agricultural insurance in the prevention of risks to agricultural finance operations in the form of salam by verifying the hypotheses through which to reach the results, including the imposition of risks for agricultural finance in the form of salam, The study of agricultural finance in the form of salm, the deductive approach to the development of the problem of research and hypotheses, and the inductive method to extrapolate the results through analysis and brother The researcher concluded that agricultural insurance works to bridge the risks facing agricultural finance in the form of the ladder in cases of

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 11 2009
Journal Name
Al-mustansiriyah Journal Of Science
Thyroid Autoimmune Antibodies For Enzyme Peroxidase, Thyroglobulin and Se, Zn Levels in Elderly Patients with Hypothyroidism in Iraq
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Forty – two elderly hypothyroidism patients and forty – two apparently healthy as control groups , divided to (21) male (M) and (21) female (F) also (21) control male C(M) and (21) control female C(F) aged > 60 years, were tested for the presence of thyroid peroxidase autoantibody (TPo – Ab) and thyroglobulin auto antibody (Tg – Ab) , also for Se and Zn levels in their sera . The results revealed a significant increase in (TPO – Ab) and (Tg – Ab) for group (M) and (F) compared to control group , also a siginificant increase in TPo – Ab and Tg – Ab for (F) compared to (M) was found. A significant decrease in Se and Zn level for (M) and (F) compared to control group, while no significant difference between (M) and (F). In conc

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 13 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Water And Land Development
A study of the climate and human impact on the future survival of the Al-Sannya marsh in Iraq
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Polish Academy of Sciences

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 18 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of strategic approach in the effectiveness of small and medium Enterprises in Iraq
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The purpose of this research highlight the achievement of the effectiveness of small and medium enterprises dimensions and conformable to analyze the relationship between business strategies and human resources management strategies , and launched search of a dilemma thought provoking fundamental questions revolve around the search is the lack of appropriate strategies in these enterprises to help them continuity and permanence in business and markets , as these enterprises lack the human resources management strategies appropriate , as well as business strategies that make them withstand the changes in the market environment is changing and volatile . It was to

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimation of Reliability through the Wiener Degradation Process Based on the Genetic Algorithm to Estimating Parameters
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      In this paper, the researcher suggested using the Genetic algorithm method to estimate the parameters of the Wiener degradation process,  where it is based on the Wiener process in order to estimate the reliability of high-efficiency products, due to the difficulty of estimating the reliability of them using traditional techniques that depend only on the failure times of products. Monte Carlo simulation has been applied for the purpose of proving the efficiency of the proposed method in estimating parameters; it was compared with the method of the maximum likelihood estimation. The results were that the Genetic algorithm method is the best based on the AMSE comparison criterion, then the reliab

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