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The Bayesian Estimation in Competing Risks Analysis for Discrete Survival Data under Dynamic Methodology with Application to Dialysis Patients in Basra/ Iraq
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Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete hazard function and the time-dependent parameters, two estimation methods have been used that depend on the Bayes method according to dynamic modeling: the Maximum A Posterior method (MAP) This method was done using numerical methods represented by a Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation maximization algorithm (EM), the other method is represented by the Hybrid Markov Chains Monte Carlo (HMCMC) method using the Metropolis Hasting algorithm (MH) and Gypsum sampling (GS). It was concluded that survival analysis by descretization the data into a set of intervals is more flexible and fluid, as this allows analyzing risks and diagnosing impacts that vary over time. The study was applied in the survival analysis on dialysis until either death occurred due to kidney failure or the competing event, represented by kidney transplantation. The most important variables affecting the patient’s cessation of dialysis were also identified for both events in this research.

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 28 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Numerical Modeling of Renal Ionic Equilibrium for Implantable Kidney Applications
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The human kidney is one of the most important organs in the human body; it performs many functions
and has a great impact on the work of the rest of the organs. Among the most important possible treatments is
dialysis, which works as an external artificial kidney, and several studies have worked to enhance the
mechanism of dialysate flow and improve the permeability of its membrane. This study introduces a new
numerical model based on previous research discussing the variations in the concentrations of sodium,
potassium, and urea in the extracellular area in the blood during hemodialysis. We simulated the differential
equations related to mass transfer diffusion and we developed the model in MATLAB Simu

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Valuation the Impact of Risks on the Goals and the Safety of Construction Projects in Iraq
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Construction projects have a special nature and affect them many factors making them exposed to multiple risks as a result of the length of the implementation period and the multiplicity of stages, starting from the decision stage through implementation until the final delivery, which leads to increased uncertainty and the likelihood of risk.
The process of analysis and risk management is one of the effective and productive methods that are used in managing the construction projects for the purpose of increasing the chances of ending the project successfully in terms of cost, time and quality and at the lowest possible problems.

The research aims first to the effective planning for analysis and risk managemen

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring the level of unemployment in Iraq by using the user / product schedule for 2010
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Economic performance is one of the most important indicators of economic activity and with the performance of the economy progress varied sources of output and increase economic growth rates and per capita national income, and to recover the business environment and increase investment rates and rising effectiveness of the financial and monetary institutions and credit market. Which leads to increased employment rates and reducing unemployment rates and the elimination of many of the social problems and improve the average per capita income as well as improve the level of national income.

The input / output tables is a technique mathematical indicates economic performance

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Towards measuring the aggregate index of banking stability in Iraq for the period 2010 -2016
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Abstract:

    The paper aims to measure an aggregated banking stability index reflecting the degree of stability of the banking system to help policy makers to take the necessary actions to avoid financial crises facing banks and to achieve a banking system with high efficiency in terms of banking risk.

    Therefore, the problem of paper is that the Central Bank of Iraq did not seek until 2016 to build a aggregated index for the purpose of identifying the stability of the banking situation in Iraq, but rather on the adoption of scattered indicators, which depend on the mechanism of relative changes in those indicators for the purpose of identifying the situation of b

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Implications of Financial Reporting Governance in rationalizing investors decisions In financial markets in light of An International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS)/ An analytical study of a selected sample of the joint stock companies in Iraq
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The financial crises that occurred in South East Asia and America, and the discovery of the financial and administrative corruption that affected these companies, which led to the crisis. Since then, organizations and institutions interested in accounting have begun new ways to further rationalize the management of these companies. Hence the concept of governance, which means good governance. Al-Susiya confirmed its adoption of the financial reporting standards and adopted internal and external auditing for the purpose of increasing the reliability and credibility of the financial and reports that increase the confidence of investors in making their investment decisions in the financial markets The study dealt with the contributi

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 31 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Estimate Gas Initially in Place of Tight Gas Reservoirs Based on Developed Methodology of Dynamic Material Balance Technique
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With growing global demand for hydrocarbons and decreasing conventional reserves, the gas industry is shifting its focus in the direction of unconventional reservoirs. Tight gas reservoirs have typically been deemed uneconomical due to their low permeability which is understood to be below 0.1mD, requiring advanced drilling techniques and stimulation to enhance hydrocarbons. However, the first step in determining the economic viability of the reservoir is to see how much gas is initially in place. Numerical simulation has been regarded across the industry as the most accurate form of gas estimation, however, is extremely costly and time consuming. The aim of this study is to provide a framework for a simple analytical method to esti

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Integrated Core and Log Data to Determine the Reservoir Flow Unit and Rock Facies for Mishrif Formation in South Eastern Iraq
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This work represents study the rock facies and flow unit classification for the Mishrif carbonate reservoir in Buzurgan oil Field, which located n the south eastern Iraq, using wire line logs, core samples and petrophysical data (log porosity and core permeability). Hydraulic flow units were identified using flow zone indicator approach and assessed within each rock type to reach better understanding of the controlling role of pore types and geometry in reservoir quality variations. Additionally, distribution of sedimentary facies and Rock Fabric Number along with porosity and permeability was analyzed in three wells (BU-1, BU-2, and BU-3). The interactive Petrophysics - IP software is used to assess the rock fabric number, flow zon

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Variation in the degree of Continentality climate of Iraq
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This research paper is about thevariationin the degree of Continentality climate of the
Iraq during (40) years for a number of climate station. Using Poresof formula, it is found out
that the climate of Iraq ranges between extreme Continentality and very extreme
Continentality, and that the Continentality degree is characterized with extreme frequency
from one year to another. In certain years, the degree of climate Continentality decreases
while in other years it rises in such a way that there is no similarity in the Continental degree
from one year to another for the same station.
As for the general trend of the degree of Continentality, the last years had noticed
special variations, which are divided in to thre

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process for Embedded Risk Reduction in Selecting the Right Planning Decision
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The aim of this work is to provide an efficient selection technique as a part of planning process to guide the decision makers to decide the preferences of one supplier over another for purchasing lab instruments in education domain. Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process has used as a multi-criteria decision process, as an industrial engineering tool with certain emphasis on the qualitative aspects required to the decision makers. While the concept of degree of possibility for each criterion is used to reach its relative weights, a specific methodology created to reach the final objective decision of supplier selection. A questionnaire form was developed and distributed to five universities located in Baghdad province with a total

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
the circulation of power in Iraq after 2003
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The deliberation and exchanged of power is a matter of political importance For the Iraqi political system after 2003, The deliberation of power and its democratic transition and electoral integrity Is a good indicator of political stability and progress In the Iraqi parliamentary political system , The transfer of authority in terms of adopting the deliberative approach represents a structural and institutional dimension of the political process , it led the power to become Authority of the Foundation Exercised in accordance with the Constitution and the law not real power , And lead to the recognition of the existence of an official parliamentary opposition and its right to take political power later through the ballot box Makes the pr

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