Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete hazard function and the time-dependent parameters, two estimation methods have been used that depend on the Bayes method according to dynamic modeling: the Maximum A Posterior method (MAP) This method was done using numerical methods represented by a Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation maximization algorithm (EM), the other method is represented by the Hybrid Markov Chains Monte Carlo (HMCMC) method using the Metropolis Hasting algorithm (MH) and Gypsum sampling (GS). It was concluded that survival analysis by descretization the data into a set of intervals is more flexible and fluid, as this allows analyzing risks and diagnosing impacts that vary over time. The study was applied in the survival analysis on dialysis until either death occurred due to kidney failure or the competing event, represented by kidney transplantation. The most important variables affecting the patient’s cessation of dialysis were also identified for both events in this research.
In real situations all observations and measurements are not exact numbers but more or less non-exact, also called fuzzy. So, in this paper, we use approximate non-Bayesian computational methods to estimate inverse Weibull parameters and reliability function with fuzzy data. The maximum likelihood and moment estimations are obtained as non-Bayesian estimation. The maximum likelihood estimators have been derived numerically based on two iterative techniques namely “Newton-Raphson†and the “Expectation-Maximization†techniques. In addition, we provide compared numerically through Monte-Carlo simulation study to obtained estimates of the parameters and reliability function i
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Abstract:
We can notice cluster data in social, health and behavioral sciences, so this type of data have a link between its observations and we can express these clusters through the relationship between measurements on units within the same group.
In this research, I estimate the reliability function of cluster function by using the seemingly unrelate
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Abstract
This study deals with the fluctuations of oil revenues and its effect on the public debt. This can be studied through the indicators of debt sustainability, the financial, and economic indicators which express the risk of debt. The study focuses on clarification of the public debt path and its management both domestic and foreign. The sustainability of debt takes an important role according the macroeconomic variables. This study stresses the relationship between the rental economy in Iraq and the risk of the public debt, it is very important to work high oil prices, and on investigating during high work to establish a fund to support the budget deficit. This will reduce future risks arising from the use of publi
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This study was conducted on a sample of commercial banks in Iraq, chosen according number of considerations for twenty banks, contained two public banks and eighteen private banks. &
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It can be said that the Security of water in Basra from the visual task vital strategic issues of concern to the attention of researchers in various attributions and those interested in water, environmental, economic, social, cultural and political affairs ... etc. This view of the great importance of the issue of water in the occupied Basra, which is characterized by parochialism and scarcity, When looking at the sources of our daily lives and in our reality today. We find that millions of people living on the two main exporters Tabaaan oil and water. And depleted oil wealth However Manfred him the most attention because we entered it surpasses all other sources of income, but is not it a littl
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The research aims to identify the tax policy strategy adopted in Iraq after the change of the tax system in 2003 and beyond, and then make a comparison of the two strategies on corporate data whether they are charged with progressive tax rates and after the change of the system as the tax rates became fixed, and then indicate the changes In the tax proceeds, and knowing the imensions of the approved tax policy, is it a tax reform strategy or a strategy to attract investments.The research started from the problem of exposure of the Iraqi tax system to several changes, as this led to a reflection on the technical organization of taxes, in terms of the tax rate.The descriptive analytical approach was chosen to study the actual reality of th
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to estimate the survival function for the data of lung cancer patients, using parametric methods (Weibull, Gumbel, exponential and log-logistic).
Comparisons between the proposed estimation method have been performed using statistical indicator Akaike information Criterion, Akaike information criterion corrected and Bayesian information Criterion, concluding that the survival function for the lung cancer by using Gumbel distribution model is the best. The expected values of the survival function of all estimation methods that are proposed in this study have been decreasing gradually with increasing failure times for lung cancer patients, which means that there is an opposite relationshi
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The objective of the research is to identify the efficiency of risk management in various names at Baghdad International Airport in the face of various risks (financial - technical - human - natural ..) facing the sample of the search of the General Establishment of Civil Aviation and the Iraqi Airways Company where the researcher identified the hypothesis that summarizes There is a significant significant correlation between risk management, risk management and risk review and assessment. The researcher used the means of research from observation and interviews with the relevant officials in this field, as well as used the questionnaire and distributed a sample of 170 employees in the field of risk management (SMS Department) in Iraqi A
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In this paper, we investigate the connection between the hierarchical models and the power prior distribution in quantile regression (QReg). Under specific quantile, we develop an expression for the power parameter ( ) to calibrate the power prior distribution for quantile regression to a corresponding hierarchical model. In addition, we estimate the relation between the and the quantile level via hierarchical model. Our proposed methodology is illustrated with real data example.
There is an assumption implicit but fundamental theory behind the decline by the time series used in the estimate, namely that the time series has a sleep feature Stationary or the language of Engle Gernger chains are integrated level zero, which indicated by I (0). It is well known, for example, tables of t-statistic is designed primarily to deal with the results of the regression that uses static strings. This assumption has been previously treated as an axiom the mid-seventies, where researchers are conducting studies of applied without taking into account the properties of time series used prior to the assessment, was to accept the results of these tests Bmanueh and delivery capabilities based on the applicability of the theo
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