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The Bayesian Estimation in Competing Risks Analysis for Discrete Survival Data under Dynamic Methodology with Application to Dialysis Patients in Basra/ Iraq
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Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete hazard function and the time-dependent parameters, two estimation methods have been used that depend on the Bayes method according to dynamic modeling: the Maximum A Posterior method (MAP) This method was done using numerical methods represented by a Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation maximization algorithm (EM), the other method is represented by the Hybrid Markov Chains Monte Carlo (HMCMC) method using the Metropolis Hasting algorithm (MH) and Gypsum sampling (GS). It was concluded that survival analysis by descretization the data into a set of intervals is more flexible and fluid, as this allows analyzing risks and diagnosing impacts that vary over time. The study was applied in the survival analysis on dialysis until either death occurred due to kidney failure or the competing event, represented by kidney transplantation. The most important variables affecting the patient’s cessation of dialysis were also identified for both events in this research.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-adab Journal
הדיאקסיס בלשון העברית
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         נושא הדאיקסיס בצורה כללית הוא אחד הנושאים הלשוניים החשובים, הנושא הזה שייך לתחום הפרגמאטיקה, חשיבותו טמונה בכך שהוא אמצע הבעה חשוב בחיי היומיום שלנו, מכיוון שהוא נחשב אחד מאמצעי התקשורת בין האנשים. נושא זה קשור בקשר הדוק בהקשר, משום שהוא עוזר להסיר הדו-משמעות שבאמצעותו אנו מגיעים לרפרנטים המכוונים בצורה מדוייקת.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Sust Journal Of Engineering And Computer Science (jecs)
Virtual failure influence of Roseires dam on Khartoum city using HEC-RAS Hydraulic simulation modeling
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Dam break is series phenomenon that can result in fatal consequences and loss of properties. Unfortunately, the observed consequences can only be available after the dam breaks. Therefore, it is important to anticipate what will happen prior to dam break to issue suitable warning and locate the possible risk areas. This study attempts to simulate the case of dam break in Blue Nile at Roseires dam and see its consequences downstream. Roseires dam lies at a distance of 630 km south of Khartoum, Sennar dam lies at about 260 km downstream of Roseires dam. In this study hydraulic model is developed based of Hydraulic Engineering Centre (HEC), River Analysis System (RAS), and HEC- RAS. The HEC-RAS based model is calibrated and validated usi

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Publication Date
Wed May 30 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Numerical Modeling of Water Movement from Buried Vertical Ceramic Pipes through Soils
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The problem of water scarcity is becoming common in many parts of the world, to overcome part of this problem proper management of water and an efficient irrigation system are needed.  Irrigation with a buried vertical ceramic pipe is known as a very effective in the management of irrigation water.  The two- dimensional transient flow of water from a buried vertical ceramic pipe through homogenous porous media is simulated numerically using the HYDRUS/2D software.  Different values of pipe lengths and hydraulic conductivity were selected.  In addition, different values of initial volumetric soil water content were assumed in this simulation as initial conditions.  Different value

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Drug Delivery Technology
. Preparation and Characterization of Atorvastatin Calcium Trihydrate-cyclodextrin Inclusion Complex
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Atorvastatin calcium (ATR) is an antihyperlipidemic agent used for lowering blood cholesterol levels. However, it is very slightly soluble in water with poor oral bioavailability, which interferes with its therapeutic action. It is classified as a class II drug according to Biopharmaceutical Classification System (low solubility and high permeability).

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 20 2021
Journal Name
Materials Science Forum
Red Laser Irradiation Effect on the Structural Properties of MawsoniteCu<sub>6</sub>Fe<sub>2</sub>SnS<sub>8</sub> [CFTS] Thin Films Deposited via Semi-Computerized Spray Pyrolysis Technique
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The existing investigation explains the consequence of irradiation of violet laser on the structure properties of MawsoniteCu6Fe2SnS8 [CFTS] thin films. The film was equipped by the utilization of semi-computerized spray pyrolysis technique (SCSPT), it is the first time that this technique is used in the preparation and irradiation using a laser. when the received films were processed by continuous red laser (700 nm) with power (>1000mW) for different laser irradiation time using different number of times a laser scan (0, 6, 9, 12, 15 and 18 times) with total irradiation time (0,30,45,60,75,90 min) respectively at room temperature.. The XRD diffraction gave polycrysta

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Publication Date
Sat May 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
The substitutions of Strontium by yttrium and their effects on Bi<sub>2</sub>Sr<sub>2</sub>-<sub>x</sub>Y<sub>x</sub>Ca<sub>2</sub>Cu<sub>3</sub>O<sub>10</sub>+<sub>δ</sub> superconducting compound
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Abstract<p>Superconducting compound Bi<sub>2</sub>Sr2-<sub>x</sub>Y<sub>x</sub>Ca<sub>2</sub>Cu<sub>3</sub>O<sub>10+δ</sub> were Synthesized by method of solid state reaction, at 1033 K for 160 hours temperature of the sintering at normal atmospheric pressure where substitutions Yttrium oxide with Strontium. When Y2O3 concentration (0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5). All specimens of Bi<sub>2</sub>Sr<sub>2</sub>Ca<sub>2</sub>Cu<sub>3</sub>O<sub>10+δ</sub> superconducting compounds were examined. The resistivity of electrical was checked by the four point probe technique, It was found th</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 30 2012
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Effect of car painting vapours on pulmonary and liver function of Automobile painting worker within Baghdad governorate area
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Background: Automobile spray painting is considered an occupation with a high risk of respiratory impairment and asthma. Exposure to organic solvents used for spraying might be of high risk for development of dysfunction in other organs.
Objective: The study was designed to evaluate the pulmonary and hepatic toxicity due to exposure of automobile painters to organic solvents in work places within the Baghdad governorate area.
Methods: Thirty cross sectional selected male workers employed in automobile body paint shops in two industrial areas within Baghdad city (Al-Sheikh Omar and Al-Rasheed camp regions) were recruited to the study during the period from March to May 2012. Thirty non-exposed students and employees in the college o

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Urban Morphological Studies (Concepts, Techniques, and Methods)
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Urban morphological approach (concepts and practices) plays a significant role in forming our cities not only in terms of theoretical perspective but also in how to practice and experience the urban form structures over time. Urban morphology has been focused on studying the processes of formation and transformation of urban form based on its historical development. The main purpose of this study is to explore and describe the existing literature of this approach and thus aiming to summarize the most important studies that put into understanding the city form. In this regard, there were three schools of urban morphological studies, namely: the British, the Italian, and the French School. A reflective comparison between t

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Publication Date
Wed May 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Thixotropic Hardening of Fao Clay
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Fao region is characterized by weak soft silty clay to clayey silt thick layer which extends to a depth of about 20 m. The construction of some structures on such soils may needs piles. During the installation of driven piles, the soil geotechnical properties are exposed to significant changes result due to shearing under large shear strains. These changes significantly decrease the shear strength of the virgin soil due to the destruction of soil structure caused by remolding. The degradation of shear strength is usually followed by strength regaining which is called “Thixotropy”. In this study, the thixotropic effect on Fao clay was investigated. Many disturbed and undisturbed soil samples were brought from Fao regi

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Ocean Engineering
Stresses and pore water pressure induced by machine foundation on saturated sand
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In this study, the response and behavior of machine foundations resting on dry and saturated sand was investigated experimentally. In order to investigate the response of soil and footing to steady state dynamic loading, a physical model was manufactured. The manufactured physical model could be used to simulate steady state harmonic load at different operating frequencies. Total of (84) physical models were performed. The parameters that were taken into considerations include loading frequency, size of footing and different soil conditions. The footing parameters were related to the size of the rectangular footing and depth of embedment. Two sizes of rectangular steel model footing were used (100 200 12.5 mm) and (200 400 5.0 mm).

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