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The Bayesian Estimation in Competing Risks Analysis for Discrete Survival Data under Dynamic Methodology with Application to Dialysis Patients in Basra/ Iraq
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Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete hazard function and the time-dependent parameters, two estimation methods have been used that depend on the Bayes method according to dynamic modeling: the Maximum A Posterior method (MAP) This method was done using numerical methods represented by a Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation maximization algorithm (EM), the other method is represented by the Hybrid Markov Chains Monte Carlo (HMCMC) method using the Metropolis Hasting algorithm (MH) and Gypsum sampling (GS). It was concluded that survival analysis by descretization the data into a set of intervals is more flexible and fluid, as this allows analyzing risks and diagnosing impacts that vary over time. The study was applied in the survival analysis on dialysis until either death occurred due to kidney failure or the competing event, represented by kidney transplantation. The most important variables affecting the patient’s cessation of dialysis were also identified for both events in this research.

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 24 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The public's reliance on satellite channels to get information about human rights issues
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The research aimed to study the role that the media play in shaping the public knowledge of human rights issues among the people of Kirkuk, which will be the focus of the study. The research was conducted by applying a survey panel to a random sample of the city's audience. The research dealt with the theoretical aspect of a theory that relied on the media, and the loans provided by the theory, on the basis of which the research was conducted and the research problem was determined based on a major question: What is the role that the mass media play in developing the knowledge of members of the public on human rights and the relationship between the intensity of view in that, as well as the identification of the effect of two variables G

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 20 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Natural-Convection Phenomenon from a Finned Heated Vertical Tube: Experimental Analysis
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       In this work, an experimental analysis is made to predict the thermal performance of the natural-convection phenomenon from a heated vertical externally finned-tube to surrounding air through an open-ended enclosure. Two different configurations of longitudinal rectangular fin namely, continuous and interrupted are utilized with constant thickness, different numbers, and different heights are extended radially on the outer surface of a heated tube. The tube is heated electrically from inner surface with five varied power input magnitudes. The effect of fins configuration, fins number, fins height, and heat flux of the inner tube surface on the thermal performance of natural c

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2014
Journal Name
Current Research In Microbiology And Biotechnology
Cytogenetic Analysis for the Effect of Alcoholic and Water Extracts of Iraqi Propolis in Mice
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This study was conducted to study the cytogenetic effect of both alcoholic and water extracts of propolis on mice. Three different samples of propolis were collected from three different regions of Iraq (Najaf, Arbil and Baghdad) to be used in this study. The cytotoxic effect of two different doses of each extracted sample was measured by employing cytogenetic analysis which included (mitotic index (MI), chromosomal aberrations (CAs), micronucleus index (MN) and sperm abnormalities). Results showed that significant increase in MI and significant reduction in MN, CAs and sperm abnormalities percentage were seen after treatment with both alcoholic and water extract of the three samples when compared with negative control, and alcoholic extrac

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 28 2025
Journal Name
Chemical Papers
New chemiluminometric method for the determination of azithromycin in a continuous flow injection analysis system
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A novel analytical method is developed for the determination of azithromycin. The method utilizes continuous flow injection analysis to enhance the chemiluminescence system of luminol, H2O2, and Cr(III). The method demonstrated a linear dynamic range of 0.001–100 mmol L-1 with a high correlation coefficient (r) of 0.9978, and 0.001–150 mmol L-1 with a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.9769 for the chemiluminescence emission versus azithromycin concentration. The limit of detection (L.O.D.) of the method was found to be 18.725 ng.50 µL−1 based on the stepwise dilution method for the lowest concentration within the linear dynamic range of the calibration graph. The relative standard deviation (R.S.D. %) for n = 6 was less than 1.2%

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Development of a Blueprint Impact System of the risks on construction projects Implementation
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In Production and Operations Management the specialists  have  tried to develop a strategy to counter the risks arising from the activities of the organization and of waste of various types and therefore the risk management in the contemporary framework represents a phenomenon of new quality, and can not be this phenomenon to take practical dimensions, but the development of culture of the organization towards the risks and deal with all aspects and paint ways to address them within an integrated program, and requires new skills and systems provide accurate information capable of coordination between the various parties within the organization.

     The research aims to develop a blu

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 08 2024
Journal Name
Fifth International Conference On Applied Sciences: Icas2023
Bifurcation analysis of the role of good and bad bacteria in the decomposing toxins in the intestine with the impact of antibiotic and probiotics supplement
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This study presents a mathematical model describing the interaction of gut bacteria in the participation of probiotics and antibiotics, assuming that some good bacteria become harmful through mutations due to antibiotic exposure. The qualitative analysis exposes twelve equilibrium points, such as a good-bacteria equilibrium, a bad-bacteria equilibrium, and a coexisting endemic equilibrium in which both bacteria exist while being exposed to antibiotics. The theory of the Sotomayor theorem is applied to study the local bifurcation around all possible equilibrium points. It’s noticed that the transcritical and saddle-node bifurcation could occur near some of the system’s equilibrium points, while pitchfork bifurcation cannot be accrued at

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 11 2018
Journal Name
Internationaljournalofresearchinpharmaceuticalsciences
Treatment satisfaction with disease-modifying therapy in relapsing-remit-tingmultiple sclerosis in Iraq
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Multiplesclerosis(MS)isachronic,inflammatory,immune-mediateddiseaseof the central nervous system (CNS). More than 2 million people worldwidehave MS. The goal of the present study was to compare Iraqi patients' treat-ment satisfaction with three different disease-modifying therapies (DMTs),administeredorally,subcutaneously,andbyslowinfusion;namely,fin-golimod, interferon beta-1b (IFNβ-1b), and natalizumab, respectively. Aswell as to assess the individual differences among these therapies about theireffectiveness, convenience and global satisfaction also to assess the role ofcertain predictors on treatment satisfaction. Patient satisfaction with medi-cation assessed by the Treatment Satisfaction Questi

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Iterative Reweighting Algorithm and Genetic Algorithm to Calculate The Estimation of The Parameters Of The Maximum Likelihood of The Skew Normal Distribution
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Excessive skewness which occurs sometimes in the data is represented as an obstacle against normal distribution. So, recent studies have witnessed activity in studying the skew-normal distribution (SND) that matches the skewness data which is regarded as a special case of the normal distribution with additional skewness parameter (α), which gives more flexibility to the normal distribution. When estimating the parameters of (SND), we face the problem of the non-linear equation and by using the method of Maximum Likelihood estimation (ML) their solutions will be inaccurate and unreliable. To solve this problem, two methods can be used that are: the genetic algorithm (GA) and the iterative reweighting algorithm (IR) based on the M

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2014
Journal Name
كلية التربية -الجامعة المستنصرية
study the electron drift velocity in gas mixtures of SF6 with N2 obtained from Boltzmann equation analysis
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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2013
Journal Name
كلية التربية الجامعة المستنصرية
Study the electron drift velocity in gas mixtures of CF3I with N2 obtained from Boltzmann equation analysis
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