Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete hazard function and the time-dependent parameters, two estimation methods have been used that depend on the Bayes method according to dynamic modeling: the Maximum A Posterior method (MAP) This method was done using numerical methods represented by a Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation maximization algorithm (EM), the other method is represented by the Hybrid Markov Chains Monte Carlo (HMCMC) method using the Metropolis Hasting algorithm (MH) and Gypsum sampling (GS). It was concluded that survival analysis by descretization the data into a set of intervals is more flexible and fluid, as this allows analyzing risks and diagnosing impacts that vary over time. The study was applied in the survival analysis on dialysis until either death occurred due to kidney failure or the competing event, represented by kidney transplantation. The most important variables affecting the patient’s cessation of dialysis were also identified for both events in this research.
The focus of this research lies in the definition of an important aspect of financial development, which is reflected on the alleviation of poverty in Iraq, namely financial inclusion and then taking the path of achieving a sustainable economy, certainly after reviewing one of the important international experiences in this regard and finally measuring the level of financial inclusion in Iraq and its impact on poverty reduction through the absolute poverty line indicator.
يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غي
... Show MoreVarious heavy metals, cations and anions of the Tigris River water in Baghdad regionwere studied during the winter, spring, summer and autumn of 2009, for 4 samplingsites. In the present investigation the levels of studied heavy metals, cations and anionswere found in the range of (0.011-0.333 mg/L) for As, in the water samples(undetectable-0.0043 mg/L) for Sb,( 0.011-0.080 mg/L) for Ti, (0.150-0.730 mg/L) forV, (0.01-1.06 mg/L) for Fe, (0.1-0.4 mg/L) for Zn, (0.011-0.15 mg/L) for Pb, (0.01-0.05mg/L) for Cd, (0.01-0.04 mg/L) for Ni, (50-290 mg/L) for Ca, (97-270 mg/L) for Mg,(0.65-1.74 mg/L) for K, (11-38.33) for Na, (35-113 mg/L) for Cl, (150-256 mg/L) forHCO3, (96-479 mg/L) for SO4, (0.93-3.9 mg/L) for NO3 and (undetectable - 0.360 mg/L)f
... Show MoreArtificial roughness on the absorber plate of a Solar Air Heater (SAH) is a popular technique for increasing its effective efficiency. The study investigated the effect of geometrical parameters of discrete multi-arc ribs (DMAR) installed below the SAH absorber plate on the effective efficiency. The effects of major roughness factors, such as number of gaps (Ng = 1-4), rib pitch (p/e = 4-16), rib height (e/D = 0.018-0.045), gab width (wg/e = 0.5-2), angle of attack ( = 30-75), and Reynolds number (Re= 2000-20000) on the performance of a SAH are studied. The performance of the SAH is evaluated using a top-down iterative technique. The results show that as Re rises, SAH-effective DMAR's efficiency first ascends to a specified value o
... Show MoreRecurrent respiratory tract infections are responsible for about 85% of all diseases in childhood, and are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study is to evaluate the main causes underlying recurrent respiratory tract infections in 176 pediatric patients aged 2 month to 4 year and weight from 4 to11 kg referred to the child center hospital and Al-sader hospital prospective study.All parents were given information sheet which then analyzed and the percentage of incidence of causes were recorded, we found that higher % related to many causes; mostly related to the parent like poor family education, mother carelessness, incomplete vaccination, other related to empirical diagnosis, and short course of t
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The researchers aim of this research to analyze the reality of educational services in the city of Ramadi in order to reveal the efficiency of the spatial distribution of schools at the level of residential neighborhoods and the requirements of the population, based on the standards and indicators for this service.
The research problem related to the educational function of the city of Ramadi was formulated by asking about the efficiency of the spatial distribution of educational services and whether there is a balance in the distribution of schools to residential neighborhoods in a way that meets the requirements of the population, and in order to answer the research problem, the research hypothesis was formulated that there is
... Show MoreRegression Discontinuity (RD) means a study that exposes a definite group to the effect of a treatment. The uniqueness of this design lies in classifying the study population into two groups based on a specific threshold limit or regression point, and this point is determined in advance according to the terms of the study and its requirements. Thus , thinking was focused on finding a solution to the issue of workers retirement and trying to propose a scenario to attract the idea of granting an end-of-service reward to fill the gap ( discontinuity point) if it had not been granted. The regression discontinuity method has been used to study and to estimate the effect of the end -service reward on the cutoff of insured workers as well as t
... Show MoreThe stratigraphic sequence of Cenomanian-Early Turonian is composed of Ahmadi, Rumaila, and Mishrif formations in the Rifai, Noor and Halfaya Oil Fields within the Mesopotamian Zone of Iraq, which is bounded at top and bottom by unconformity surfaces. The microfacies analysis of the study wells assisted the recognition of five main environments (open marine, basinal, shallow open marine, Rudist biostrome, and lagoon); these microfacies were indicative of a normal lateral change facies from shallow water facies to deeper water and open marine sediments.
Ahmadi Formation (Early Cenomanian) is characterized by open marine sediments during the transgressive conditions, and would be
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The two most popular models inwell-known count regression models are Poisson and negative binomial regression models. Poisson regression is a generalized linear model form of regression analysis used to model count data and contingency tables. Poisson regression assumes the response variable Y has a Poisson distribution, and assumes the logarithm of its expected value can be modeled by a linear combination of unknown parameters. Negative binomial regression is similar to regular multiple regression except that the dependent (Y) variables an observed count that follows the negative binomial distribution. This research studies some factors affecting divorce using Poisson and negative binomial regression models. The factors are unemplo
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