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The Bayesian Estimation in Competing Risks Analysis for Discrete Survival Data under Dynamic Methodology with Application to Dialysis Patients in Basra/ Iraq
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Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete hazard function and the time-dependent parameters, two estimation methods have been used that depend on the Bayes method according to dynamic modeling: the Maximum A Posterior method (MAP) This method was done using numerical methods represented by a Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation maximization algorithm (EM), the other method is represented by the Hybrid Markov Chains Monte Carlo (HMCMC) method using the Metropolis Hasting algorithm (MH) and Gypsum sampling (GS). It was concluded that survival analysis by descretization the data into a set of intervals is more flexible and fluid, as this allows analyzing risks and diagnosing impacts that vary over time. The study was applied in the survival analysis on dialysis until either death occurred due to kidney failure or the competing event, represented by kidney transplantation. The most important variables affecting the patient’s cessation of dialysis were also identified for both events in this research.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 18 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Incidence of Toxoplasmosis in Psoriasis Patients and Possible Correlation with Tumor Necrosis Factor-α
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            Toxoplasma gondii is an opportunistic parasite in immune-compromised persons. The prevalence of toxoplasmosis in psoriasis patients is investigated. In addition, the treatment effect on psoriasis patients infected with toxoplasmosis through evaluating Tumor Necrosis Factor-α (TNF-α) cytokine levels is studied. Blood samples were collected from 130 individuals who involved 60 control samples and 70 samples with psoriasis. They attended Medical City Hospital in Baghdad province from October 2017 - February 2018. Then, the anti- T. gondii antibodies (IgM and IgG) and TNF- α in the sera were determined via the enzyme linked immune-sorbent assay. The highe

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 26 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Dual use of Altman financial failure prediction analysis and stress tests to achieve integration in banking risk management : Analytical study of the National Bank of Iraq
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The research aims to demonstrate the dual use of analysis to predict financial failure according to the Altman model and stress tests to achieve integration in banking risk management. On the bank’s ability to withstand crises, especially in light of its low rating according to the Altman model, and the possibility of its failure in the future, thus proving or denying the research hypothesis, the research reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which (the bank, according to the Altman model, is threatened with failure in the near future, as it is located within the red zone according to the model’s description, and will incur losses if it is exposed to crises in the future according to the analysis of stress tests

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Designing an electronic program for the Assessment of project management in accordance with the methodology (PMBOK)
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The research aims to design an electronic program that allows users to assess the possibility of different practices for projects management professional according to the PMBOK methodology)) and using the requirements Data mentioned in the "knowledge and experience in project management Evaluation guide" issued by the professional Institute of project management According to the results of this program will be electronic The possible classification of project management in terms of both (proficiency_ perform tasks) as less than the desired level or within or above average in terms of best practices, and finally a number of recommendations to overcome the possible shortcomings. The most important is the need to enrich the service

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 31 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
APPLICATION OF TRIANGLES METHOD FOR QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATION OF MARL RESERVE IN EUPHRATES FORMATION, MIDDLE OF IRAQ
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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Rationalization the costs and improve seed quality under the application of biotechnology: An Applied Research in Ministry of Agriculture - the Directorate of Inspection &Certification of Seeds
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The importance of this research has been to rationalize the cost of producing maize seeds through the followers of modern techniques and methods in agricultural activities such as genetic engineering for the purpose of increasing production efficiency of maize seeds as well as the importance of calculating seed cost rationalization through the ABC system and thus rationalizing government spending. The research is based on a single hypothesis that the use of genetic engineering on corn seeds works to:increase production efficiency of seeds and savings in agricultural inputs, calculation of rationalization through the cost system on the basis of activity ABC The research reached a number of conclus

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 11 2023
Journal Name
Mathematical Problems In Engineering
Bayesian Methods for Estimation the Parameters of Finite Mixture of Inverse Rayleigh Distribution
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Methods of estimating statistical distribution have attracted many researchers when it comes to fitting a specific distribution to data. However, when the data belong to more than one component, a popular distribution cannot be fitted to such data. To tackle this issue, mixture models are fitted by choosing the correct number of components that represent the data. This can be obvious in lifetime processes that are involved in a wide range of engineering applications as well as biological systems. In this paper, we introduce an application of estimating a finite mixture of Inverse Rayleigh distribution by the use of the Bayesian framework when considering the model as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We employed the Gibbs sampler and

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2025
Journal Name
Iet Conference Proceedings
Spatial quantile autoregressive model with application to poverty rates in the districts of Iraq
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This research aims to provide insight into the Spatial Autoregressive Quantile Regression model (SARQR), which is more general than the Spatial Autoregressive model (SAR) and Quantile Regression model (QR) by integrating aspects of both. Since Bayesian approaches may produce reliable estimates of parameter and overcome the problems that standard estimating techniques, hence, in this model (SARQR), they were used to estimate the parameters. Bayesian inference was carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Several criteria were used in comparison, such as root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and coefficient of determination (R^2). The application was devoted on dataset of poverty rates acro

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Building a strategic perspective on the system of governance and measuring the level of its performance Survey study at the University of Basra
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The Local and Global Corporations are suffering of managerial and financial corruption phenomena, which leads them to loss and bankruptcy. So, it is necessary to search for tools which help prevent phenomena like this, and one of these tools is (corporate governance) which represent controlling tool that contribute in reducing corruption. this study aims at modifying (corporate governance system)in order to make it suitable with Iraqi government Corporations. the study depend upon main hypothesis which is (the performance level of the strategic perspective of governance system is depending upon work according to the perspective dimensions itself.  From the main conclusions:-It is possible to building a strategic perspective

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Diversity, Abundance, and Distribution of Cladocera at the end of the Tigris River North of Basrah – IRAQ
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Seasonal variations of the species composition and abundance of Cladocera were studied in two stations at the end of the Tigris River and one station at the confluence of the Tigris with Euphrates area, at the beginning of the Shatt Al-Arab River in Al-Qurnah North of Basrah Province, from October 2015 to August 2016. Samples of zooplankton were collected by plankton net 100-µm. mesh size. The population density of Cladocera ranged between 1 Ind /m³ during summer and 211 Ind./m³ during winter at station 1 (Al-Jewaber Bridge). A total of 16 species of Cladocera belonging to 12 genera were recorded in the study. The average density of Cladocera ranged from 23.2 ind./m3 at Station 2 (Hamayon Bridge) to 53.7 Ind./m3

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Fuzzy Games Theory to Determine the optimal Strategy for The Mobile Phone Networks in The Baghdad And Basra governorates
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      The objective of this research is employ the special cases of  function  trapezoid in the composition of fuzzy sets to make decision within the framework of the theory of games traditional to determine the best strategy for the mobile phone networks in the province of  Baghdad and Basra, has been the adoption of different periods of the  functions belonging to see the change happening in the matrix matches and the impact  that the strategies  and decision-making  available to each player and the impact on  societ

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