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The Bayesian Estimation in Competing Risks Analysis for Discrete Survival Data under Dynamic Methodology with Application to Dialysis Patients in Basra/ Iraq
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Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete hazard function and the time-dependent parameters, two estimation methods have been used that depend on the Bayes method according to dynamic modeling: the Maximum A Posterior method (MAP) This method was done using numerical methods represented by a Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation maximization algorithm (EM), the other method is represented by the Hybrid Markov Chains Monte Carlo (HMCMC) method using the Metropolis Hasting algorithm (MH) and Gypsum sampling (GS). It was concluded that survival analysis by descretization the data into a set of intervals is more flexible and fluid, as this allows analyzing risks and diagnosing impacts that vary over time. The study was applied in the survival analysis on dialysis until either death occurred due to kidney failure or the competing event, represented by kidney transplantation. The most important variables affecting the patient’s cessation of dialysis were also identified for both events in this research.

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
“Using the Statistical Analysis for deduction the childhood status in Iraq during 2006-2010”
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   To deduct the childhood status in Iraq, it was important manner to use statistical tools and approaches concerned with interpreting the causal relationships and their attitudes and use classification method for the important effects (variables) to draw an obvious picture of the phenomena under study in order to make it useful through investing, updating and improving it in by demographic studies in the future. Two statistical methods had been used in the field of analyzing data of multivariate analysis namely, Cluster Analysis and Factor Analysis.  

The present study focuses on four fundamental axes .The nutrition axis, health axis, Educational axis, and the social axis. The study has ca

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Concentrations, Sources and Distribution of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon (PAHs) Compounds in Basrah soils, Iraq
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  Anthropogenic activities cause soil pollution with different serious pollutants, such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs) compounds. This study assessed the contamination of PAHs in soil samples collected from 30 sites divided into eight groups (residential areas, oil areas, agricultural areas, roads, petrol stations, power plants, public parks and electrical generators) in Basrah city-Iraq during 2019-2020. The soil characteristics including (moisture, pH, EC and TOC) were measured. Results showed the following ranges (soil moisture (0.03-0.18%),pH (6.90-8.16), EC (2.48-104.80) mS/cm and TOC (9.90-20.50%)). Gas Chromatography (GC) was used to measure PAHs in extracted soil samples. The total PAH range (499.96 - 5864.86) ng/g dr

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 25 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Using Classification of Brown risks in Evaluation of the internal control system: Application Research in Karbala University
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Internal control system is a safety valve that preserves economic units assets and ensure the accuracy of financial data, as well as to obligation in the laws, regulations, administrative policies ,and improve the efficiency, effectiveness and economic of operation, so it has become imperative for these units attention to internal and developed control system The research problem in exposure the economic units when the exercise of their business to many of the risks to growth or hinder the achievement of its objectives and the risks (financial, operational, strategy, risk) and not it rely on risk Assessment according to modern scientific methods, as in Brown's risk Classification, Which led to the weakness of the internal control identif

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison between the logistic regression model and Linear Discriminant analysis using Principal Component unemployment data for the province of Baghdad
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     The objective of the study is to demonstrate the predictive ability is better between the logistic regression model and Linear Discriminant function using the original data first and then the Home vehicles to reduce the dimensions of the variables for data and socio-economic survey of the family to the province of Baghdad in 2012 and included a sample of 615 observation with 13 variable, 12 of them is an explanatory variable and the depended variable is number of workers and the unemployed.

     Was conducted to compare the two methods above and it became clear by comparing the  logistic regression model best of a Linear Discriminant  function written

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Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agricultural And Statistical Sciences
A noval SVR estimation of figarch modal and forecasting for white oil data in Iraq
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The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals

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Scopus
Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Compared to the poverty indicators in Iraq in 2007
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     There is poverty because of the difference in capacity and material resources, Previously poverty known on the basis of disparity between income and inadequate income. It realize later that fare wore effects of poverty is the erosion of human capital. The human poverty is the loss of food, education, health care and shelter.

     In order to provide a database that target the poor  , it have been propped a document on the features of poverty and the whereabouts of the poor and the rate of disparity between provinces.

    Here the goal of the research is the identify the factors affecti

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Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Jul 19 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Game Theory to Determine the Optimal Strategy for the Transportation Sector in Iraq
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In this paper, game theory was used and applied to the transport sector in Iraq, as this sector includes two axes, the public transport axis and the second axis the private transport axis, as each of these axes includes several types of transport, namely (sea transport, air transport, land transport, transport by rail, port transport) and the travel and tourism sector, as public transport lacks this sector, as the competitive advantage matrix for the transport sector was formed and after applying the MinMax-MaxMin principle to the matrix in all its stages, it was found that there was an equilibrium point except for the last stage where the equilibrium point was not available Therefore, the use of the linear programming method was

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 03 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Using the general budget for the year 2019 to achieve sustainable development in Iraq
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The public budget is on the same time an art and a science .As an accountable science it seeks balance between public income and public expenditure for an accountable year. And as an accountable art it seeks to achieve economic balance by distributing equitable income in order to reach sustainable development .This is the optimal use of all natural and human resources to address scarcity of natural resources facing the increase need of human resources by spending on education, health, environment, housing, agriculture and industry to achieve social justice for the current generation and future generations. Since the first budget in Iraq on 1921 an accounting budget, is balancing the sections and items has been adopted and since the publi

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Jun 05 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Statistical Methods for Controlling the Quality of Crude Oil Products in Iraq
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The purpose of this study is to measure the levels of quality control for some crude oil products in Iraqi refineries, and how they are close to the international standards, through the application of statistical methods in quality control of oil products in Iraqi refineries. Where the answers of the study sample were applied to a group of Iraqi refinery employees (Al-Dora refinery, Al-Nasiriyah refinery, and Al-Basra refinery) on the principles of quality management control, and according to the different personal characteristics (gender, age, academic qualification, number of years of experience, job level). In order to achieve the objectives of the study, a questionnaire that included (12) items, in order to collect preliminary inform

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Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use Of the Bayesian Method and Restricted Maximum Likelihood in estimating of mixed Linear Components with random effects model with practical application.
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In this research we study a variance component model, Which is the one of the most important models widely used in the analysis of the data, this model is one type of a multilevel models, and it is considered as linear models , there are three types of linear variance component models ,Fixed effect of linear variance component model, Random effect of linear variance component model and Mixed effect of linear variance component model . In this paper we will examine the model of mixed effect of linear variance component model with one –way random effect ,and the mixed model is a mixture of fixed effect and random effect in the same model, where it contains the parameter (μ) and treatment effect (τi ) which  has

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