Analyzing food production risk with Monte Carlo simulation
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Abstract
The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he
... Show MoreThis study tries to clear the correlation and association between asthma, obesity and leptin levels. Also it will work to indicate the main risk factors which play role in the elevation of leptin level within asthmatic patients. This is a case control study conducted on (38) asthmatic patients and (20) healthy control who were closely similar by age, gender and BMI. The main statistical tests used were student t test, linear regression test and correlation test. Significance was set at P < 0.05. Sampling method used for this study was convenience sampling method. The main results of this study show a significant association and positive correlation between age (old age ≥ 40 ye
... Show MoreBackground: Previous studies about the correlation of genetic polymorphisms in the multigene family of cyto- chrome P450 (CYPs), the effect of tobacco smoking, and the risk of developing cancer have been well in- vestigated in different populations, but not in Iraq. Furthermore, the studies of malignance occurrence re- lationship with cigarette tobacco smoking revealed the presence of strong association, however, little is known about the risk of Waterpipe (WP) tobacco smoking. Thus, determination two important genetic polymorphisms in CYP1A1, a main member of CYPs, among Iraqi men was our first aim. This is the first study that highlights the correlation of CYP1A1 polymorphisms with the risk of lung cancer in Iraq. The second aim was to ev
... Show MoreObjective: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients have increased morbidity and mortality from premature cardiovascular (CV) disease (CVD). Framingham risk score (FRS) is a simplified coronary prediction tool developed to enable clinicians to assess the risk of a cardiovascular event and to identify candidate patients for risk factors modifications worldwide. The predictive ability of the FRS varies between populations, ethnic groups, and socio-economic status. The aim of this study is to find if there is any correlation between the Framingham risk score and the inflammatory and biochemical parameters used to measure disease activity and functional ability in Iraqi patients with active RA.
A lab-scale packed Bio film reactor was used for ethanol production by fermentation of sugar solution using a local
isolated yeast saccharomyces cerevisia and glutaraldelryde on gelating as a covalent bounding agent. In this study four
types of packing in the reactor were used. They are; polypropylene mesh, glass rashig rings, ceramic rashig rings and
glass beads. Glucose solutions were used as substrate with four concentrations; (5, I 0, I 5, 20 g/l). Results show that the
ethanol productivity was increase with increasing sugar concentration. Also it was found that polypropylene mesh
packing give the highest productivity while glass beads gives the lowest productivity. The experiments were conducted at
three temperatur
In this work chemical vapor deposition method (CVD) for the production of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) have been improved by the addition of S. Steel mesh container (SSMC) inside which the catalyst (Fe/Al2O3) was placed. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) investigation method used to study nanotubes produced, showed that high yield of two types of (CNTs) obtained, single wall carbon nanotube (SWCNTs) with diameter and length of less than 50nm and several micrometers respectively and nanocoil tubes with a diameter and length of less than 100nm and several micrometers respectively. The chemical analysis of (CNTs) reveals that the main component is carbon (94%) and a little amount of Al (0.32%), Fe (2.22%) the reminder is oxygen. It was also fou
... Show MoreUsed vegetable oil was introduced to transesterfication reaction to produce Biodiesel fuel suitable for diesel engines. Method of production was consisted of filtration, transesterfication, separation and washing. Transesterfication was studied extensively with different operating conditions, temperature range (35-80oC), catalyst concentration (0.5-2 wt. % based on oil), mixing time (30-120 min.) with constant oil/methanol weight ratio 5:1 and mixing speed 1300 rpm. The concentration of Fatty acid methyl esters (Biodiesel) was determined for the transesterficated oil samples, besides of some important physical properties such as specific gravity, viscosity, pour point and flash point. The behavior of methyl esters production and the physica
... Show MoreUsed vegetable oil was introduced to transesterfication reaction to produce Biodiesel fuel suitable for diesel engines. Method of production was consisted of filtration, transesterfication, separation and washing. Transesterfication was studied extensively with different operating conditions, temperature range (35-80oC), catalyst concentration (0.5-2 wt. % based on oil), mixing time (30-120 min.) with constant oil/methanol weight ratio 5:1 and mixing speed 1300 rpm. The concentration of Fatty acid methyl esters (Biodiesel) was determined for the transesterficated oil samples, besides of some important physical properties such as specific gravity, viscosity, pour point and flash point. The behavior of methyl esters production and the phys
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