There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we st

The inverse problem is important method in the design of electrostatic lenses which is used in this work, with new technique by suggesting an axial electrostatic potential distribution using polynomial functions of the third order. The paraxial-ray equation is solved to obtain the trajectory of particles that satisfy the suggested potential function.In this work design of immersion electrostatic lens operated under zero magnification condition. The electrode shape of sthe electrostatic lens was the dermined from the solution of laplace equation and plotted in two deimensions . The results showed low values of spherical and chromatic aberrations , which are considered as good criteria for good desigh.

Free Space Optics (FSO) plays a vital role in modern wireless communications due to its advantages over fiber optics and RF techniques where a transmission of huge bandwidth and access to remote places become possible. The specific aim of this research is to analyze the Bit-Error Rate (BER) for FSO communication system when the signal is sent the over medium of turbulence channel, where the fading channel is described by the Gamma-Gamma model. The signal quality is improved by using Optical Space-Time Block- Code (OSTBC) and then the BER will be reduced. Optical 2×2 Alamouti scheme required 14 dB bit energy to noise ratio (Eb/N0) at 10-5 bit error rate (BER) which gives 3.5 dB gain as compared to no diversity scheme. Th

Due to wind wave actions, ships impacts, high-speed vehicles and others resources of loading, structures such as high buildings rise bridge and electric transmission towers undergo significant coupled moment loads. In this study, the effect of increasing the value of coupled moment and increasing the rigidity of raft footing on the horizontal deflection by using 3-D finite element using ABAQUS program. The results showed that the increasing the coupled moment value leads to an increase in lateral deflection and increase in the rotational angle (α◦). The rotational angle increases from (0.014, 0.15 to 0.19) at coupled moment (120 kN.m), (0.29, 0.31 and 0.49) at coupled moment (240 kN.m) and (0.57, 0.63 and 1.03) at cou

Summary

The conflict between Arab and Zionist movement before 1948 was not normal dispute about certain issue or quarrel on borders, it is comprehensive conflict, this research intraduce analytical and outlook future reading about Palestine identity in time of occupation and resistance in the first studying we take the concept of identity and the fundamental relationship identity history and geography. Our research treated the contents of palest Iain and Isralian identsunder. The political, cultural and military conflict between Israil and Palestine. The research introduce analytic study of research introduce analytic study of intellectual orientation of Zionist state in order to determine the exact meaning of this identity, beca

The study is devoted to both static and earthquake response analysis of retaining structures acted upon by lateral earth pressure. Two main approaches were implemented in the analysis, namely, the Mononobe-Okabe analytical method and the numerical Finite element procedure as provided in the ready software ABAQUS with explicit dynamic method. A basic case study considered in the present work is the bridge approach retaining walls as a part of AL-Jadiriya bridge intersection to obtain the effects of the backfill and the ground water on the retaining wall response including displacement of the retaining structure in addition to the behavior of the fill material. Parametric studies were carried out to evaluate the effects of several factors

This paper presents a novel idea as it investigates the rescue effect of the prey with fluctuation effect for the first time to propose a modified predator-prey model that forms a non-autonomous model. However, the approximation method is utilized to convert the non-autonomous model to an autonomous one by simplifying the mathematical analysis and following the dynamical behaviors. Some theoretical properties of the proposed autonomous model like the boundedness, stability, and Kolmogorov conditions are studied. This paper's analytical results demonstrate that the dynamic behaviors are globally stable and that the rescue effect improves the likelihood of coexistence compared to when there is no rescue impact. Furthermore, numerical simul

In order to study the dynamic response of historical masonry structures, a scaled down brick masonry model constructed in civil engineering department at Baghdad University to simulate a part of a real case study, which is Alkifil historic minaret. Most of the previous researches about masonry structures try to understand the behavior of the masonry under seismic loading by experimental and numerical methods. In this paper, the masonry units (bricks) simulated in scale (S= 1/6) with the exact shape of the prototype bricks. Cementitious tile adhesive was selected to be the mortar for the modeling. The height of the model designed to be 1.5 m with a 0.5 m diameter. Detailed construction steps were presented in this paper. Experts buil

Creep testing is an important part of the characterization of composite materials. It is crucial to determine long-term deflection levels and time-to-failure for these advanced materials. The work is carried out to investigate creep behavior on isotropic composite columns. Isotropy property was obtained by making a new type of composite made from a paste of particles of carbon fibers mixed with epoxy resin and E-glass particles mixed with epoxy resin. This type of manufacturing process can be called the compression mold composite or the squeeze mold composite. Experimental work was carried out with changing the fiber concentration (30, 40 and 50% mass fraction), cross section shape, and type of composite. The creep results showed that th