يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
This paper shed light on castles in Iraq through Othman reign to know their sorts , and studying planning concentrating on the nature of architecture , this is a serious trying to study and important side of military architecture in Iraq with its reasons of building them which had related with political, military , social ,and economical circumstances of country .
The Mesopotamian soil is muddy and fertile, and so from ancient eras Iraqis used mud in their building, settlements and architecture in different methodologies according to the nature and the function of the building that was either in its pure form or by mixing it with other materials such as straw . also as raw bricks in different ways either for the whale building or parts of it, or for the finishing parts such as roofing for instance. In this research these different forms and methodologies will permeate through out a chosen examples of historical building, rural buildings and settlements and ancient buildings as well as some current uses of mud in the structures and building in standing cities, this in order to conclude some
... Show MoreThe state did not witness the emergence of independent bodies because of the nature of the ruling regimes that were characterized by political tyranny represented by the king at the time, as is the case with Greece and the Greeks and Persia and the Romans and others. As for the Islamic state, which emerged later, it saw the emergence of what looks like independent bodies that we see today, There was the so-called Diwan Al-Hesba and the Ombudsman's Office as an independent body from the Islamic State, which operated independently to support the oppressed and the equitable distribution of financial resources, even though it was headed by well-known governors of justice and honesty. A state in the modern era, many countries, especially in E
... Show MoreThe banking system considered as one of the most important intermediate circle between creditor and debtors it is mean the most important funding rings in economic activity, whether finance takes the a consumer or investment form and therefore it is the main base to stimulate economic activity both on the demand side, both consumption and investment and therefore of the main motivating factors for economic growth.
The banking system depends in achieve its goals on the grants and loan recovery, or what is known credit process and according to what the importance referred to the role of the banking system, it is important to ensure the safety and efficiency of the mechanisms of banking device and safety is
... Show MoreThe research deals with analyzing the influencing role of trade policies in the growth and development of productive economic sectors and their contribution to GDP and its reflection on workforce employment. Studies have proven the success of the Malaysian experience in stimulating the productive economic sectors to grow and their contribution to the gross domestic product with an increase in the growth of local markets and access to international markets for national products. The research also deals with the ineffectiveness of Iraqi trade policies after 2003 in stimulating the productive economic sectors (agricultural and industrial) on economic growth, as most of the increase in Iraqi GDP growth throughout the study period was
... Show MoreThis study focused on a fundamental issue which was represented by ability of Iraqi central bank in facing the difficulty of determining the optimal ratio of liquidity in the Iraqi banks in terms of the balancing between its obligations to the depositors and borrowers, and liquidate their funds on one hand and the risks on the other hand.the search aimed for achieving the goals which represented by identifying the possibility of Iraqi banks to apply the regulations rules and instructions issued by central bank of Iraq in determining ratio of liquidity and its appropriate with Iraqi banks action to implement a reasonable profit to&
... Show MoreAbstract:-
The phenomenon of financial and administrative corruption is not the result today, but not tied to time or designated place, he is the scourge is rampant in all countries of the world, without exception, those developed and developing, a phenomenon that crossed national boundaries and become withstand a global character, and corruption is limited to communities of particular economic systems without the other, but suffered Throughout history most societies to varying degrees, Iraq is one of the countries that suffered and continues to suffer from corruption, which has become, B grumble in most of the Iraqi state institutions, especially after the occupation in 2003 as administrative corruption in Iraq arrived i
... Show MoreAlmost human societies are not void of poverty, as the latter accompanied the emergence of humanity, and it, thus, represents an eternal problem. To advance an individual's reality and raise the level of the poor social classes, social security networks have been established. Such networks operate in society following social systems and laws to provide food, and material support. Besides, such networks help to rehabilitate the individual academically and vocationally. They empower vulnerable groups through the establishment of courses and workshop, provide (conditional) subsidies related to the health and educational aspects in order to achieve the sustainable development goals of (2030), and apply developmental roles of social safety ne
... Show MoreThe study titled “The role of the social media sites of Iraqi satellite channels in prioritizing the public” is a field study for the public of Dhi Qar.
The emergence of the social networking sites we are currently experiencing has undergone radical and important changes in the role of the mass media in light of the growth and rapid spread of modern technologies Or the so-called new media، which led the media organizations to create satellite channels on the social networks، which led to bypass the traditional lines between the public and media institutions with the public gain the possibility of The purpose of the research is to determine the habits and patterns of public use of the social media sites of the Iraqi satellite cha
The main idea that led me to write such research paper within the framework of Germanic linguistics is that I have not found any topic dealing with the term correlate in the German language, except in several articles in linguistic journals as well as one topic in a book describing the use of such a linguistic phenomenon in the language system. The research initially deals with the definition of the correlate at the level of the German language system. Correlate is unity describes specific relation of two sentences and identifies denoted constructs. Correlate is called a placeholder at the syntactic level because it does not occupy its original topological fields in the syntactic structure. The correlate (es) or the prepositiona
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