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تحليل وقياس الاستدامة المالية لصندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي في العراق للمدة 2004-2018
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يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison between robust methods in canonical correlation by using empirical influence function
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       Canonical correlation analysis is one of the common methods for analyzing data and know the relationship between two sets of variables under study, as it depends on the process of analyzing the variance matrix or the correlation matrix. Researchers resort to the use of many methods to estimate canonical correlation (CC); some are biased for outliers, and others are resistant to those values; in addition, there are standards that check the efficiency of estimation methods.

In our research, we dealt with robust estimation methods that depend on the correlation matrix in the analysis process to obtain a robust canonical correlation coefficient, which is the method of Biwe

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 05 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
K-Nearest Neighbor Method with Principal Component Analysis for Functional Nonparametric Regression
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This paper proposed a new  method to study functional non-parametric regression data analysis with conditional expectation in the case that the covariates  are functional and the Principal Component Analysis was utilized to de-correlate the multivariate response variables. It  utilized the formula of the Nadaraya Watson estimator (K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN)) for prediction with different types of the semi-metrics, (which are based on Second Derivative and Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA))  for measureing the closeness between curves.  Root Mean Square Errors is used for the  implementation of this model which is then compared to the independent response method. R program is used for analysing data. Then, when  the cov

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
English Personal Pronouns as a Manipulation Strategy in Political Discourse: A Critical Discourse Analysis
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Manipulation is a discursive concept which plays a key role in political discourse by which politicians can impose some impact on their recipients through using linguistic features, most prominent of which are personal pronouns (Van Dijk, 1995). The aim of this study is to investigate how politicians utilize the personal pronouns, namely; We and I and their possessive forms as a tool of manipulating the audience's mind based on Van Dijk's  "ideological square" which shows positive-self representation and negative-other representation (Van Dijk,1998:p.69). To this end, American President Donald Trump's 2020 State of the Union speech was chosen to be the data of analysis. Only (8)

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Análisis de la traducción del relativo “QUE” en “la Barraca” al árabe
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The field of translation studies is full of different types of social, economic, political, and literary translations as well as other types related to the life of the human being which are several, but the translation of the grammatical aspects is considered one of the important tasks that both of the translator and interpreter have to take in consideration, so as to get an translation so perfect and so correct as much as possible. One of the grammatical aspects that we have to know how to be translated correctly is the relative pronouns. And it’s about the relative pronouns translation from Spanish to Arabic turns my research work.

      In this research, I will consider how to be translated the relat

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analyzing the relationship between stock market volatility and economic activity in the USA
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This study examines the dynamic relationship between stock market and economic activity in the United States to verify the possibility of using financial indicators to monitor the turning points in the expected path of future economic activity. Has been used methodology (Johansen - Juselius) for the Co-integration and causal (Granger) to test the relationship between the (S & P 500 , DJ) index  and gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States for the period
(1960-2009). The results of the analysis revealed the existence of a causal relationship duplex (two-way) between the variables mentioned. which means the possibility of the use stock market indicators to pre

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Analisis de la metáfora en la poema " Noche oscura del alma" de San Juan de la Cruz Analysis metaphor in the poem "Dark Night of the Soul" John of the Cross
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RESUMEN

 Una joven cuenta cómo, en plena noche, aprovechando la tranquilidad de esa hora, sale a escondidas de su casa y va a reunirse con su enamorado. Envuelta en la oscuridad, se deja dirigir por la luz de su propio amor hasta el lugar de la cita, donde la pasión de los amantes culmina. A continuación, relajados por la brisa nocturna, los amantes se adormecen, primero, el amado velado por la amada, por último, ella misma.

Amor entre dos enamorados. Unión mística de alma y Dios , aunque , de hecho , podría servirnos de clara exposición temática el subtitulo con que el poema suele publicarse en la tradición , tanto manuscrita como impresa : Canciones del alma que se goza d

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Time Series Analysis of Total Suspended Solids Concentrations in Euphrates River in Al-Nasria Province
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The monthly time series of the Total Suspended Solids (TSS) concentrations in Euphrates River at Nasria was analyzed as a time series. The data used for the analysis was the monthly series during (1977-2000).

The series was tested for nonhomogenity and found to be nonhomogeneous. A significant positive jump was observed after 1988. This nonhomogenity was removed using a method suggested by Yevichevich (7). The homogeneous series was then normalized using Box and Cox (2) transformation. The periodic component of the series was fitted using harmonic analyses, and removed from the series to obtain the dependent stochastic component. This component was then modeled using first order autoregressive model (Markovian chain). The above a

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 27 2020
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
سبل تطوير المكتبات التراثية في العراق
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In a unique way, heritage libraries enrich Iraq's cultural landscape. Iraq has a large number of heritage libraries, which carry a large number of books of Arab-Islamic heritage. The Library of the Center for the Revival of Heritage is one of these .

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2006
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
الادراك السياسي للاصلاح الاداري في العراق
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الادراك السياسي للاصلاح الاداري في العراق

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2015
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Topics of Iraq in the Arab International Press
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The research entitled "the Iraqi Topics in International Arab Press" is an analytical study of two newspapers: Al-Arab and Al-Hayat published in London from September 1-30, 2013.

      The Arab press is one of the cultural monuments Home stretches for culture and media of Arabs outside the Arab Homeland which made them international press targeting public Arab audience's not civil audiences in a particular country and formulating their contents on this basis taking into account intake affairs and issues that have been national or international.

        Because of this international presence of the Arab press, these newspa

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