يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
This study deals with the role that social work profession plays in all its fields to reduce social extremismat home, or school or within society. The study aims to: examine the historical roots of social work in the Iraqi society, investigate the objectives of the developmental role of social work, review the theories of social extremism, its characteristics, and causes, and to analyze the developmental role of social work to limit social extremism. To meet the objectives of the study, a descriptive analytical approach has been adopted. It involves using the social sampling survey method, i.e., a questionnaire tool in the University of Baghdad community-College of Media. The sample was randomly selected to include (100) students from th
... Show MoreThat the nature of an important role in children's lives, Including offer them fun and freedom of thinking and capacity in the imagination. And its effective role of poets in general and especially apoet of childhood Selecting from diverse elements, And the rise to the level of human nature In order to enrich the child's imagination And the delivery of various ideas and information in a surprising. And are far from the decision-making and direct screed.this importance we set off For the study of poetic texts for children in Iraq During the research stage. Those texts in which the humanization began clearly,and our offer to these texts in style of detail and precision Not without expressing an my opinion during the research We finished th
... Show Moreيناقش البحث الاسباب الحقيقية بتفشي الارهاب في العراق بعد العام 2003
Iraq is changing from the centralized system of governance to the decentralized system, which assumes devolution of more authorities to the local governments of Iraqi provinces and cities. This puts a responsibility on the academics to produce more research work on the best framework for this change, to ensure the best results. The main objective of this research is to suggest a policy for the decentralized transformation in domain of Urban and Regional Planning in Iraq. A suggested program for the transformation is involved in the paper as well, with analysis for the new relationships between different levels of planning authorities depending on democracy. In addition, a description for planning process flows from bottom to top.
This research deals with the study of the obstacles to peaceful coexistence in Iraq. Therefore, our hypothesis is that these obstacles are not attributed to one reason or to one source. Therefore, peaceful coexistence among the components of Iraqi society remains fragile and vulnerable to collapse and threat at any moment. This society, which is already in need of social relations, needs more than ever to coexist and consolidate it. Through the exercise of democracy in Iraq in a manner that guarantees rights and duties for all, to restore mutual trust between the components of this community in a way that feels they are citizens of the state.
This research paper is about thevariationin the degree of Continentality climate of the
Iraq during (40) years for a number of climate station. Using Poresof formula, it is found out
that the climate of Iraq ranges between extreme Continentality and very extreme
Continentality, and that the Continentality degree is characterized with extreme frequency
from one year to another. In certain years, the degree of climate Continentality decreases
while in other years it rises in such a way that there is no similarity in the Continental degree
from one year to another for the same station.
As for the general trend of the degree of Continentality, the last years had noticed
special variations, which are divided in to thre
الادراك السياسي للاصلاح الاداري في العراق
The deficit of the federal budget and the structural imbalances suffered by the Iraqi economy has affected the direction of research towards suggesting steps and mechanisms can be relied upon in the near term to form a broader base of non-oil revenues aimed at achieving a balanced budget, and to proceed to reform the financial situation, In reducing their financial dictates, whether capital or operational, which lead to significant financial and economic consequences. This also requires that the Iraqi political elite have the real will, strategic vision and full awareness that the implementation of these reforms has potential social and economic effects, with long-term measures to be taken. The aim is not only to reform the finan
... Show MoreThe research studies the melodic and rhythmic characteristics of monologue, in addition to how it was transferred from the Arab homeland to Iraq and reviewed its most prominent performers, as well as a review of the monologue types and their propagation in the Arab homeland such as comical, dramatic, and political and guidance monologues.
The methodological framework included: the problem of the research, the importance of the research and the objective of the research which is to uncover the melodic and rhythmic structure of the monologue in Iraq. The limits of the research included the objective limit tackling the art of monologue and the spatial limit which is Baghdad
... Show MoreIn a unique way, heritage libraries enrich Iraq's cultural landscape. Iraq has a large number of heritage libraries, which carry a large number of books of Arab-Islamic heritage. The Library of the Center for the Revival of Heritage is one of these .