يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Les sociétés d’assurances sont considérées parmi les importantes entreprises financières non bancaires.
Pour que ces sociétés assurent sa continuité d’existence, il faut qu’elles veillent au rendement financier qui représente ses différentes actions durant une période déterminée, en effectuant une évaluation permanente en utilisant de différentes méthodes parmi lesquelles l’analyse financière avec ses aspects divers.
L’objectif de cette étude est d’évaluer le rendement financier des sociétés d’assurances et où projette l’étude sur la société Algérienne d’assurance durant la période 07- 09.
The research studies the main variables for the concept of sharing in knowledge in one of the most important control agencies in Iraq, which is (The Federal Board of Supreme Audit). Also, the quality of the controlling businesses by the Board in light of the major challenges that facing the fight against signs of cheating and administrative and financial corruption for offices submitted to controlled and auditing, with the increasing and intensification of these appearances. In order to enable the Board to cope with this situation, has to be thinking hard about how to achieve excellence, progress and development to face these situations, through the application of sharing in knowledge for the financial controller, and then achiev
... Show More
Social networking sites have become very popular since the beginning of the current decade and have become linked to our daily life. We follow the news, Analyses and opinions on the one issue in a way that attracts millions of users and the number grows every secon On Twitter, one of the most important social networking sites, all social groups rushed from the president to the last citizen to open accounts when they found themselves forced to do so . During the recent Gulf crisis, Twitter was buzzing with Twitter, which achieved the largest circulation globally. Instead of serving the issue and directing it to serve the Arab interest, most of the publications were on th |
The research aims at showing the effectiveness of the existing deposit facilities in the liquidity of the Iraqi banking system for the period 2010/2017. The problem of research indicates that the Iraqi banking system enjoys high liquidity levels exceeding the standard rate set by the Central Bank of Iraq amounting to 30% For an appropriate level of liquidity remains a major challenge to the management of the bank because it is a trade-off between profitability and liquidity, and also indicates the existence of funds disabled and not available for credit and investment opportunities, and based on the research hypothesis:
The existence of a significant effect of the deposit facilities existing in the liquidity of the Iraqi banking
... Show MoreDeveloped and underdevelopment countries, on equal terms, face the problem of budget deficiency. Budget deficiency means that the public expenditure surpasses the public revenues. This, on the international level, is one of the most serious economic problems with many direct effects on the national economy, and depends, basically, on its finance chosen method. Looking for a solution to this problem, for this reason and many other ones, has been highlighted in spite of the many attempts to reduce the role of the governmental expenditure. Budget deficiency can not be attributed to a single unique cause since it is complex phenomenons the causes of which are related to many factors contribute to its occurrence, some of which refer t
... Show More
Facing industrial companies many pressures and challenges due to rapid changes in the business environment of contemporary, which requires them to do their performance look more inclusive rather than limiting performance evaluation on the financial perspective in spite of its importance, prompting companies to rethink their reality competitive through the adoption of methodologies and new philosophies to manage competitiveness of total quality management, and re-engineering of production processes, and knowledge management,... etc., as This study framework cognitive and practical "to evaluate the performance of a company Diyala General Electric Industries and how to rehabilitate
The main problem of this research is the delay of implementation of the investment plan projects for the period (2013-2016) and the weakness of the staff ability in the ministries and they don’t have the sufficient experience to carry out the implementation process.
Therefore, the research aims to evaluate the implementation of programs and projects of the investment plan in a manner consistent with the objectives set for them without any wasteful of efforts, time and money. And then identify the problems and obstacles to determine the deviations of the implementation of the specific for each sector according to the criteria of evaluation and the form of cost, quality, time and implementation.<
... Show MoreThe research aimed to test the effect of independent variables career plateaus and workaholism on employees loyalty through the influence of the mediator variable organizational socialization. Descriptive approach with survey style on a sample of managers and executives in the Iraqi Drilling Company in Basra's (123) employees. The most important findings of the research are: the existence of a significant effect of the independent variables career plateaus and workaholism in employees loyalty by having a mediator variable organizational socialization and introduced numerical from recommendations. &nbs
... Show MoreThe study aims to investigate the effectiveness of cognitive-behavioral counseling in reducing symptoms of social anxiety and improving social skills among a sample of intermediate school students in the city of Souq Al-Shuyukh at Dhi Qar Governorate. The sample consisted of (40) female students, their ages ranged (14-15). They were selected based on their high scores on the social anxiety scale. The sample was divided into two groups: an experimental group, and a control group, equal in number (20) students in each group. The researcher used the social anxiety scale and the social skills scale. In addition, he used the cognitive-behavioral counseling program, consisting of (11) counseling sessions, with a rate of (45) minutes per sessio
... Show MoreThis study deals with the role that social work profession plays in all its fields to reduce social extremismat home, or school or within society. The study aims to: examine the historical roots of social work in the Iraqi society, investigate the objectives of the developmental role of social work, review the theories of social extremism, its characteristics, and causes, and to analyze the developmental role of social work to limit social extremism. To meet the objectives of the study, a descriptive analytical approach has been adopted. It involves using the social sampling survey method, i.e., a questionnaire tool in the University of Baghdad community-College of Media. The sample was randomly selected to include (100) students from th
... Show More