يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The importance of vibrations in rotating rotors in engineering applications has been examined, as has the best approach to interpreting vibration data. The most extensively used analytical approaches for rotating shaft vibration analysis have been investigated. In this research, a detailed study was made of the Rayleigh and Dunkerley methods due to their importance in the special calculations to find the amplitude of vibrations in the rotation system. The multi-node method was used to calculate both Dunkerley's and Rayleigh's methods. An experimental platform was built to study the vibrations that occur in the rotating shafts, and the results were compared with theoretical calculations and with different distances of the bearings. It pro
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The main challenge of military tactical communication systems is the accessibility of relevant information on the particular operating environment required for the determination of the waveform's ideal use. The existing propagation model focuses mainly on broadcasting and commercial wireless communication with a highs transceiver antenna that is not suitable for numerous military tactical communication systems. This paper presents a study of the path loss model related to radio propagation profile within the suburban in Kuala Lumpur. The experimental path loss modeling for VHF propagation was collected from various suburban settings for the 30-88 MHz frequency range. This experiment was highly affected by ecological factors and existing
... Show MoreThe most common cause of death is cardiovascular disease (CVD), with ischemic heart disease being the most notable type. There is a propensity to raise the sensitivity of methods in contemporary laboratory for diagnosing of CVD, and assessing key as CVD bio-indicators. The urgent task is to seek for different indicators as a hopeful tool for early detection and monitoring of myocardial infarction in blood samples only. This study comprised 117 Volunteers, recorded with both genders in the age range of 32-64 years old. The volunteers were categorized into two groups: 67patients of myocardial infarction, other group embraced 50 healthy individuals. The samples of blood were collected and directed for biochemical analysis to evaluate estr
... Show MoreJudo has witnessed tremendous developments since its inception until the present day. It has been distinguished by its adaptation to the various challenges it has faced throughout the ages. Judo is one of the sports that have been affected by social, technological and cultural changes. These changes reflect its transformation from the traditional Japanese martial art to a global sport practiced. All over the world, therefore, studying the historical development of judo is important, as it provides valuable insights into the development of martial arts over a century, by studying the origins, principles and techniques of judo for the period (1880 - 1980), and also enables us to gain an understanding A deeper understanding of how the art form
... Show MoreThe construction of development is required to develop various economic sectors with the necessity to meet the various requirement of both individuals and institutions , or through the import process , which must be commensurate with the needs of the market and the economy and development. But in fact , we found that the process of import in Iraq after 2003 took a turn dangerous excesses on limits of philosophy and objectives of the import , which reflected the level of national production as well as the policy of dumping and given to the lack of matching a lot of goods and materials imported for Standards and Measures of quality and stands behind it causes many of them exposure to the market and weak sectors with an o
... Show MoreThe construction of development is required to develop various economic sectors with the necessity to meet the various requirement of both individuals and institutions , or through the import process , which must be commensurate with the needs of the market and the economy and development. But in fact , we find that the process of import in Iraq after 2003 took a turn dangerous excesses on limits of philosophy and objectives of the import , which is reflected at the level of national production as well as the policy of dumping and given and the lack of matching a lot of goods and materials imported for Standards and Measures of quality and stands behind it causes many of them exposure to the market and weak sectors with an overlap betwee
... Show MoreThe research aims to Measuring the auditors' commitment with the analytical procedures of the economic units of the research sample in carrying out their professional duties and the importance of this commitment to the tax administration and the extent of their reliance on the external auditor's report and the financial statements in determining the income tax and its effect on the tax revenues.
The research depends on a main hypothesis stating that "The use of analytical procedures by the external auditor has a positive impact on the availability of confidence and credibility in the financial statements presented to the tax administration and has a positive impact on the tax revenues."
The resear
... Show MoreThe advertising has emerged as an effective force and an effective instrument upon with all organizations and companies depend on achieving their goals. In additional to the need to use promote sales, The nature and objective of advertising go beyond the scope of specific personal communication to a broader and more effective range for consumers from multiple groups and combination play need to use as well as the need to use means of communication than com convey the message more professional, The coincides with the rapid and remarkable development of all different media technologies and as much as possible social networking sites including mobile phone companies. The advertising has emerged as an effective force and an effective instrum
... Show MoreThis study aimed at investigating the level of social skills and its relationship with self-regulation among gifted students according to the academic stage and gender. The sample consisted of (417) male and female students at King Abdullah II School for Excellence in Salt, Jordan. Two instruments were used to collect the data; A scale of social skills and a scale of self-regulation. The results revealed that the level of social skills was high among gifted students. There were statistically significant differences in the social skills among gifted students according to their academic stage in favor of the secondary stage and according to their gender in favor of female students. There were statistically signific
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