يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Since there is no market for bond issuance by companies in the Iraqi market and the difficulty of borrowing, companies must resort to proprietary financing to finance their investments. However, in the framework of the literature of financial management, the type of financing used by the company sends signals to investors and therefore reflected on the market value. Therefore, the problem of the study revolves around the variables of the study (Equity financing within the framework the signal theory, price of common stock in the Iraqi market).
The study aims to verify the impact of the capital increase through the issuance of new stock on the price of
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Abstract
The net profit reported in the annual financial statements of the companies listed in the financial markets, is considered one of the Sources of information relied upon by users of accounting information in making their investment decisions. At the same time be relied upon in calculating the bonus (Incentives) granted to management, therefore the management of companies to manipulate those numbers in order to increase those bonuses associated to earnings, This practices are called earnings management practices. the manipulation in the figures of earnings by management will mislead the users of financial statements who depend on reported earnings in their deci
... Show Moreاسهم تطور ادوات الاسواق المالية والتغيرات العالمية كالعولمة المالية وتحرير الاسواق المالية العالمية في احداث العديد من الازمات ومنها الازمة المالية الدولية التي تعد من اكثر الظواهر ملازمة للاسواق المالية على الرغم من التطورات التي تشهدها تلك الاسواق نتيجة تطور ادواتها المالية وانفتاحها على بعضها البعض. وتتعرض الاسواق المالية الدولية والناشئة (Emerging Market) منها بشكل خاص ا
... Show MoreMost companies use social media data for business. Sentiment analysis automatically gathers analyses and summarizes this type of data. Managing unstructured social media data is difficult. Noisy data is a challenge to sentiment analysis. Since over 50% of the sentiment analysis process is data pre-processing, processing big social media data is challenging too. If pre-processing is carried out correctly, data accuracy may improve. Also, sentiment analysis workflow is highly dependent. Because no pre-processing technique works well in all situations or with all data sources, choosing the most important ones is crucial. Prioritization is an excellent technique for choosing the most important ones. As one of many Multi-Criteria Decision Mak
... Show MoreThe research discusses one of the most critical issues of corporate finance which is related to asset utilization efficiency. Researchers used internal growth rate as independent variable (Proxy of asset utilization efficiency) and sustainable growth rate-dependent variable (proxy of stockholders wealth). According to these two variables, researchers formulate major hypotheses (There is no significant effect of internal growth rate on sustainable growth rate), as well as two sub-hypotheses, examine the components of major variables. Sample of Iraqi industrial companies which listed in the Iraqi stock exchange selected to test and examine main hypotheses. Result of simple and multiple regressions explain there is a significant effect of i
... Show MoreThe researcher wanted to make an attempt to identify the foundations of social solidarity, to strengthen the bonds of brotherhood among society, and spread the causes of compassion in the hearts of its members.
The researcher has taken a short course in the hearts of the beloved to hearts.
The great raise and development of residential buildings in modern cities worldwide as a result of urban extends leads to environmental and social problems, that make the designers looking for more complicated and innovative solutions. To encounter these, most advanced technologies in construction had been used resulting buildings had become higher, which was moved away from the land called residential housing. And with the development of these buildings, increase in the inhabitants inside; generate distant from nature, which increased the need for interactive outdoor recreational spaces open green in its high sections, was an alternative or complementary option to outer space at the ground level. Therefore, the research problem has emer
... Show MoreThis study aims to identify the role of forensic accounting in the Iraqi environment, banking stability, and to achieve this goal, we used the field survey method, as it is the most appropriate for studying the phenomenon in question and achieving its objectives.
Where we selected a sample consisting of (50) male and female employees, distributed among five private banks in Baghdad governorate, namely (Ashur International Bank, Development Investment Bank, Iraqi Middle East Investment Bank, Hammurabi Commercial Bank, Khaleej Commercial Bank), and the questionnaire tool was applied to them Designed for this purpose, which consisted of
... Show MoreThis research aims to identify the nature effect of some mechanisms governance in the Accounting Conservatism for a sample of the practices of companies (banks) in the Iraq Stock Exchange and identify any of this mechanics most effects in the accounting Conservatism. To achieve this objective the use of all of it (the size of the board of directors, management ownership, ownership concentration, the auditor's report) as independent variables was used model Basu revised to measure the Accounting Conservatism , which was considered a variable follower with taking into account the effect of the control variables represented by the (company size and leverage) of a sample of listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange companies for the pe
... Show MoreThis study aims to identify the role of forensic accounting in resolving banking disputes in the Iraqi environment, and to achieve this goal, the fiel
d survey method was used, as it is the most appropriate for studying the phenomenon in question and achieving its objectives. A sample of (50) male and female employees was selected, distributed among five banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange in the Baghdad governorate. The questionnaire tool prepared for this purpose was applied to them, which consisted of two main axes. The first axis included paragraphs of questions related to the importance of forensic accounting. The second axis relates to disputes At the end of the research, we reached a set of conclusions, the most import
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