ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The investment climate is the main engine of economic development. If an appropriate and attractive investment climate is created that takes into account economic, administrative, political and environmental issues, it will contribute to the development of industry, transfer of technology, diversification of agricultural production, increased productivity, the promotion of a green economy and support for sustainable and inclusive growth. Thus, analyzing the investment climate of a country can provide reasons and roots for the complexity of the problems in the economy. In the Iraqi economy, the problem has not been rooted in the economy, but the roots of the problem are deeper and inherent in the management of the economy. Investm
... Show MoreThe process of discovering pharmaceuticals is of great importance in our contemporary life, in a way that without life becomes almost impossible, as this process is the first building block in the field of pharmaceutical industries to search for new methods and means of treatment and treatment. This process results in the commitment of the discoverer to a set of obligations in the face of the volunteer. This responsibility or negation of intentional infliction of damage by means of what is known in the law as methods of paying liability
لاحظ صناع القرار السياسي عدم مشاركتهم لمجموعة من الطوائف الاجتماعية في صنع القرار السياسي للدولة، مما دفعهم لتقوية هذه الطوائف، وتمت التدقيق في الجانب النسوي وعدم مشاركتهم في اتخاذ القرارات رغم الفئة الكبير منهم في المجتمع، مما أدى لاتخاذ أنظمة تساعد على تمثيل هذه الفئة في الحكم النيابي من خلال نظام الكوتا.
Research aims to shed light on the concept of corporate failures , display and analysis the most distinctive models used to predicting corporate failure; with suggesting a model to reveal the probabilities of corporate failures which including internal and external financial and non-financial indicators, A tested is made for the research objectivity and its indicators weight and by a number of academics professionals experts, in addition to financial analysts and have concluded a set of conclusions , the most distinctive of them that failure is not considered a sudden phenomena for the company and its stakeholders , it is an Event passes through numerous stages; each have their symptoms that lead eve
... Show MoreAs a result of the entry of multinationals companies in Iraq for investing in the joint projects through conducting agreements and contracts for work on important and strategic projects to get the necessary funds and various experiences which characterize the foreign participant sides that Iraq currently needs them and because of the non-applying the accounting processing stipulated in the unified accounting system in addition to the absence of a local accounting bases as well as the default of the participant contracts on indicating the accounting methods about those projects which are considered one of the bases that enables auditors in the public sector to depend on it, thus the research paper deals with studying an
... Show MoreThe technology of reducing dimensions and choosing variables are very important topics in statistical analysis to multivariate. When two or more of the predictor variables are linked in the complete or incomplete regression relationships, a problem of multicollinearity are occurred which consist of the breach of one basic assumptions of the ordinary least squares method with incorrect estimates results.
There are several methods proposed to address this problem, including the partial least squares (PLS), used to reduce dimensional regression analysis. By using linear transformations that convert a set of variables associated with a high link to a set of new independent variables and unr
... Show MoreChina's economic policy and its huge capabilities operate according to an expansion strategy, especially in investing foreign projects, as the past ten years have witnessed a major development in the elements of comprehensive strength, especially in the economic field, in 2014 China launched the largest initiative in the world, represented by the Belt and Road Project (BRI), which links nearly 70 countries, through this project, a very important region has emerged, which is (the port of cadres) in Pakistan, as China has headed towards that region and given the highest importance that is in its interest in the first place regardless of the great Pakistani interest, This is consistent with its future aspirations, especially after breaking
... Show MoreAfter the fall of the Iraqi regime in the 9th of April 2003, and after the disintegration of the country, political and party political chaos that had never been witnessed before, has now taken over. In the past 2 years, the American military forces had a primary role in spreading this chaos and disorder by applying a set of wrong measures and policies. This chaos that is still affecting the iraqi people was completely ignored by the USA even 2 years after the occupation, no serious steps have been taken in order to bring back order and security, on the other hand, most of the government institutions and its forces were disintegrated, along with the decision made by Paul Bremer of dismissing all the iraqi journals and the workers of the
... Show Moreسجلت الدولة الجزائرية محاولتين من أجل التنمية، بهما أرادت القضاء على كل مخلفات الاستعمار الفرنسي، من فقر وجهل وأمراض وحرمان من أبسط ضرورات الحياة، كما عملت جاهدة على أن تكون دولة لها مكانة في صفوف الدول الصاعدة على الأقل، لما حباها الله من موارد مادية ومالية وبشرية، وموقع جيو استراتيجي، قلت مثيلة في العالم، بالنسبة لمساحتها الجغرافية الكبيرة وتنوع تضاريسها الطبيعية، وترتيبها المتقدم في الطا
... Show MoreIn a resource-limited world, there is an urgent need to develop new economic models, from the traditional unsustainable industrial model of product consumption and disposal, to a new model based on the concepts of sustainability in its comprehensive sense, the so-called circular economy, using fewer resources in manufacturing processes and changing practices in product disposal to waste, by removing its use, recycling and manufacturing to start another manufacturing process. In an era of intense competition in domestic and global markets, the importance of the circular economy is highlighted in its ability to strengthen the competitiveness of enterprises in those markets, by reducing the cost and increasing the quality of the pro
... Show More