ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Abstract:
The current research is aimed at analyzing the impact of the dimensions of Job involvement of all of (the enthusiasm, the Devotion, Assimilation ) in the Crystallize organizational Identification across the dimensions of (organizational loyalty, membership, similarities) and was named the Middle East, the Iraqi Investment Bank room to look as the research community of staff adopted in the bank, to be applied to a Random sample of (100) employees working in the said bank, and developed for the purposes of data collection, a questionnaire form included three axes covered (32) paragraph of the measure, which is included adopted Liekrt Quintet for the
... Show MoreThe innate art,is a major tributary in the art world, It is a bold achievement, has a special flavor, With self-identity, linked to the origins and roots of human ,That goes back to the past and the history and culture of peoples. This business is not limited to only aesthetic side, but is loaded with religious and magical experience, and have social functions, This creations stayed live, breathe, grow, and change with the transformation of society, these processors emerged, from local people have not been trained academically.Their Elvis came from community culture,Which are, Mesopotamian thoroughbreds.This culture that we desperately need today, in order to increase ourselves Iraqi force, In the face of the modern world, which is locke
... Show Morethe civil relation between Iraqis and Egyptian was close , it is clear that is the opening relation between two countries esoecally in trade and demand education , but after mongle occupation , For the capital of the Abbasid Caliphate, the situation in Baghdad, had changed in 656 AH/1258 AD, the Iraqi migration started security and safety,
The bailment is one of the well-established legal systems of the English common law, and which included the distinguished characteristics of both the law of contract and the law of property. It is worth-mentioning that this legal system has acquired those common features of these two prominent legal systems, which form an important part of the common law. By the judicial precedents made by English courts. And these precedents have adopted two different and divergent attitudes towards the qualification of the legal nature of bailment in English law . Whereas the Iraqi civil law No. (40) of 1951 regulated the legal rules of the bailment, considering it as a real contract, the conclusion of which requires the availability of four basic elem
... Show MoreThis research deals with the role that the media can play in spreading awareness, culture and sound behavior among members of society, due to its ability to reach the largest number of individuals; its wide spread within society; and the moral responsibility of the media in consolidating the components of civil peace. The media works on forming intellectual convictions and behavioral attitudes by publishing opinions and ideas, introducing them to people's awareness and enhancing them in the practice of their daily lives, he was its media medium. Sociologists and psychologists confirm that the media. The significance of the research comes due to the broadening of violence and sectarian fighting; the absence of a culture of civil social pe
... Show MoreThis research aims to clarify the advantages of statistical sampling method and provided the scientific basis of the auditor was able to defend the future of any objection to the validity of his opinion on the financial statements of the restrictions of personal rule as much as possible during the stages of the general Company for Cotton industries.Aresearc An applied study in the Board of supreme Audit (the accounts of the cotton industry), have been used, a researcher at the theoretical side to achieve the objectives of the research methodology descriptive inference in the collection and analysis of financial statements of the circle (sample) for the financial year (2008). To achieve the objectives of the field study was designed
... Show MoreAbstract
The research aims to determine the nature of the Iraqi market in terms of banking financial stability and the extent impact of the operational efficiency on it, Accordingly, chosen 15 relational banks were chosen as an intentional sample that could represent the Iraqi banking system for the period 2010-2020. The operational efficiency variable was measured according to the data envelope model, and banking financial stability used CAMELS model which includes five indicators (capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, profitability, and liquidity), so for testing the research hypotheses used the random regression model by adopting the S
... Show MoreThis research deals with the frameworks and mechanisms of international press coverage of the issue of foreign interference in the formation of the Iraqi government in the Saudi newspapers Asharq Al-Awsat and Kayhan Al-Arabi Iran and how this topic was addressed in the two newspapers. The frameworks for international press coverage of external interference in the formation of the Iraqi government. ”This research is one of the descriptive research that adopted the survey method، which made it possible to use the content analysis tool to analyze
the content of the two newspapers، whose numbers are (624) from the
newspapers (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat Al-Saudi Arabia and Kayhan Al-Arabi Iran) from (1/1/2018 to 31/12/2018)، and the researc
The present study is an attempt to throw light on the nature of the US policy regarding the Middle East region as portrayed by AI-Sabah, Al-Mashriq and Tariq Al-Shaab papers over a period of three months from 1st of July to 30th of September 2013.
In writing this study, a number of goals have been set by the researcher. These goals may include but in no way limited to the nature of the US image as carried by the above three papers, the nature of the topics tackled by them and the nature of the Arab countries which received more and extensive coverage than others.
A qualitative research approach is proposed for the study. This approach has allowed the researcher to arrive at definite answers for the possible questions rais
... Show MoreRepresenting banking supervision An important function performed by the Iraqi Central Bank, in order to achieve stability in the financial and banking system, and safeguard the rights of depositors, investors and other targets, and to realize the Iraqi Central Bank banking supervision actors on banks, there must be an awareness of regulatory bank's existing control and subject them, as well as the role of banking oversight interested in spreading this awareness.
So sought search to find out the role played by the Iraqi Central Bank in raising awareness of the regulatory banking between the parties to the regulatory process, through the presentation and analysis of the legal framework for banking supervision and awareness supervisory