ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The research aims to analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations (EXM and EXN) and inflation (INF) on the gross domestic product (GDP) in Iraq for the period 1988-2020. The research is important by analyzing the magnitude of the macroeconomic and especially GDP effects of these variables, as well as the economic effects of exchange rates on economic activity. The results of the standard analysis using the ARDL model showed a long-term equilibrium relationship, according to the Bound Test methodology, from explanatory (independent) variables to the internal (dependent) variable, while the value of the error correction vector factor was negative and moral at a level less than (1%). The relationship bet
... Show MoreThis study focused on a fundamental issue which was represented by ability of Iraqi central bank in facing the difficulty of determining the optimal ratio of liquidity in the Iraqi banks in terms of the balancing between its obligations to the depositors and borrowers, and liquidate their funds on one hand and the risks on the other hand.the search aimed for achieving the goals which represented by identifying the possibility of Iraqi banks to apply the regulations rules and instructions issued by central bank of Iraq in determining ratio of liquidity and its appropriate with Iraqi banks action to implement a reasonable profit to&
... Show MoreThe technological developments in the field of communication have witnessed considerable impact in the variables which exist in following up and conveying the events which link it’s meaning to political implications. This makes a number of satellite channels depend on the techniques of propaganda and use them in the news bulletins to achieve political aims and ends related to its formational directives where those channels allotted a considerable time in its programming transmission map to concentrate on the security and political status to complete the image of the informational scene according to the logic of its propaganda and styles in processing news for daily events.The technological developments in the field of communication hav
... Show MoreFounding a System to secure deposits and protecting the depositors is considered one of the important and exchanged subjects out there in the banking system/field in Iraq at the current time, and the reason behind the exchange and spread of this subject is due to the financial crisis of which the banking sector is suffering from and the stumbling of many banks, those factors have had led to the insecurity of the depositors and their mistrust towards banks, thus, it is necessary to create a system to secure deposits in which depositors would be compensated for the losses caused by the banks' failures. in addition, it could be a countermeasure system which maintains the banking stability, protects the rights of depositors and gains
... Show MoreEach Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) plan needs to be tested and verified before any treatment to check its quality. Octavius 4D-1500 phantom detector is a modern and qualified device for quality assurance procedure. This study aims to compare the common dosimetric criteria 3%/3 mm with 2%/2 mm for H&N plans for the IMRT technique. Twenty-five patients with head and neck (H&N) tumor were with 6MV x-ray photon beam using Monaco 5.1 treatment planning software and exported to Elekta synergy linear accelerator then tested for pretreatment verification study using Octavius 4D-1500 phantom detector. The difference between planned and measured dose were assessed by using local and global gamma index (GI) analysis method at
... Show MoreThe study aims to measure the level of academic stress in the e-learning environment in three areas, students and their dealing with classmates, dealing with the professor and technical skills, and the nature and content of the curriculum among graduate students in the College of Education at King Khalid University during COVID-19 pandemic. This study was descriptive in nature (survey, comparative). The sample consisted of (512) male and female graduate students in the master's and doctoral programs. The Academic Stress Scale in the E-learning Environment designed by Amer (2021) was used. The results indicated a high level of academic stress among graduate students in the e-learning environment. The study also found that there were stati
... Show MoreAbstract
This study aimed to identify the business risks using the approach of the client strategy analysis in order to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the audit process. A study of business risks and their impact on the efficiency and effectiveness of the audit process has been performed to establish a cognitive framework of the main objective of this study, in which the descriptive analytical method has been adopted. A survey questionnaire has been developed and distributed to the targeted group of audit firms which have profession license from the Auditors Association in the Gaza Strip (63 offices). A hundred questionnaires have been distributed to the study sample of which, a total of 84 where answered and
... Show MoreThis research examines the relationship between dinar deposits and U.S. dollar payments at the Central Bank of Iraq using monthly data for the period 2016–2025. The ARDL model, the GRU neural network, and a hybrid ARDL–GRU model are applied. The results show that dollar payments are stationary at level, while dinar deposits become stationary after first differencing, with a significant positive long-run cointegrating relationship. The linear ARDL model has limited ability to capture sudden shocks, whereas the hybrid ARDL–GRU model achieves superior forecasting performance both in-sample and out-of-sample. The findings confirm the Central Bank of Iraq’s efficiency in managing domestic and foreign liquidity and maintaining market stab
... Show MoreWith the great development in the field of the Internet, the talk about the new media and its implications began, And its interactive services have made the future of media material sometimes participating in it and manufacturing it at other times,
the public is seeking information and choosing the appropriate ones, as well as exchanging messages with the sender after what the role of the receiver is just receiving information only.
This study aims to demonstrate the effects of using digital media in various forms and types to construct the value system of Iraqi society through the identification of the following aims:
Identify the most popular digital media for the Iraqi public in their daily lives on the Internet.
Identify