ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
This study, which is considered the first of its kind in the world and the Arab homeland, was carried out in the laboratory of mushroom production belonging to the Medicinal Plant Unit/ College Of Agricultural Engineering Sciences/ University of Baghdad during the period from July 21, 2016, to December 30, 2018, aiming to isolate and purify the mycelium of the wild isolation in addition to the genetic and morphological identification of the mushroom Agaricus bellaniae. The obtained pure isolation was tagged in the American National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) with symbol MF987843.1, thus Iraq would be the second country in the world in which the mushroom is grown following the United States of America. The
... Show MoreArt of legend was arisen out of pillars of theatre which casts light on those legends that were written to glorify powers and situations surpass level of human beings . So we find that legend was transformed through its doctrine sides over level of concept and realization on field of subjects where by which Greek theatre was founded . As soon as it was adopted by drama art as legendary ritual phenomena with its stories . With that modes of social , spiritual expressions were differentiated within communities , peoples over all different countries and civilizations . This explains us the apparent difference in cases of legends , alike if they were within thoughtful , social or cultural sides between civilizations . Since drama art is mirr
... Show MoreThe tax is a financial amount collected from the taxpayer for the account of the public treasury.. and is the cornerstone of the close bond between members of the community and the country in which they live , as income tax is imposed on the profits and revenues achieved by people and often the constitution of most contemporary countries stipulate that the legislator is obligated to determine the sources of revenues and profits subjected to tax. Because the tax has a serious impact on people’s money because it is exposed to that money through direct deduction . Therefore, we note that the applicable income Tax Law stipulated that in order income to be subject to tax , it must be derived from one or more of the income sources st
... Show MoreFinance is an essential element when developing any housing policy because of its role in providing funds to institutions concerned with housing lending. Therefore, the research aims to evaluate the financial aid provided by the Central Bank of Iraq in solving the housing crisis through the adoption of the Central Bank of Iraq initiatives to support the financing of the housing sector, and here The importance of the research is highlighted to determine the role of the initiative by drawing an effective strategy aimed at providing the housing sector with the necessary funding. By providing financing to financial institutions directed towards providing real estate credit, and that the percentage of the contribution of the implement
... Show MoreIn view of the large profits made by the sex trade on the one hand, and the minor penalties imposed on the traffickers (brokers) compared with the severe penalties imposed on the drug trade and illegal weapons, on the other hand, this trade has become popular and spread in most countries of the world, and the cornerstones of this trade and A safe haven for them is hotels, especially luxury ones with international brands where their guests are rich and some may look for sex for money. Given the great physical and psychological damage to the victims, this research highlights the civil liability of hotels towards these victims in US and Iraqi law.In order not to limit the
... Show Moreعد الرقابة الإشرافية احد اهم الأدوات التي تستخدمها البنوك المركزية في تقييم التزام المصارف بالمتطلبات التنظيمية والقوانين الصادرة منها وتستخدم البنوك المركزية عدة مؤشرات مالية منها مؤشر السيولة المصرفية لتقييم أداء المصارف تجاه حماية أموال المودعين وحماية المصارف من خطر نقص السيولة ومن ثم التعرض للإفلاس، لذا اقتضت الضرورة إلى دراسة مؤشر السيولة المصرفية الذي يستخدم كأحد أدوات الرقابة الإشرافية من قبل ال
... Show MoreThe research aims to analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations (EXM and EXN) and inflation (INF) on the gross domestic product (GDP) in Iraq for the period 1988-2020. The research is important by analyzing the magnitude of the macroeconomic and especially GDP effects of these variables, as well as the economic effects of exchange rates on economic activity. The results of the standard analysis using the ARDL model showed a long-term equilibrium relationship, according to the Bound Test methodology, from explanatory (independent) variables to the internal (dependent) variable, while the value of the error correction vector factor was negative and moral at a level less than (1%). The relationship bet
... Show MoreFounding a System to secure deposits and protecting the depositors is considered one of the important and exchanged subjects out there in the banking system/field in Iraq at the current time, and the reason behind the exchange and spread of this subject is due to the financial crisis of which the banking sector is suffering from and the stumbling of many banks, those factors have had led to the insecurity of the depositors and their mistrust towards banks, thus, it is necessary to create a system to secure deposits in which depositors would be compensated for the losses caused by the banks' failures. in addition, it could be a countermeasure system which maintains the banking stability, protects the rights of depositors and gains
... Show MoreThis study focused on a fundamental issue which was represented by ability of Iraqi central bank in facing the difficulty of determining the optimal ratio of liquidity in the Iraqi banks in terms of the balancing between its obligations to the depositors and borrowers, and liquidate their funds on one hand and the risks on the other hand.the search aimed for achieving the goals which represented by identifying the possibility of Iraqi banks to apply the regulations rules and instructions issued by central bank of Iraq in determining ratio of liquidity and its appropriate with Iraqi banks action to implement a reasonable profit to&
... Show More