ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Abstract:
Central banks seek to control and supervise credit and follow it up effectively due to the high credit risks surrounding it that may lead to damage to banks, and may even lead to damage to the reputation and confidence of the banking system as a whole.
The main role of supervisory control is to control credit by controlling it from excessive expansion during periods of economic inflation or its revitalization and improvement and expansion of credit transactions in cases of economic recession, or when central banks desire to support the national economy or support a sector of various
... Show MoreThe research aims to know the traits or characteristics of woman in terms of her external
appearance, motives for her behavior, feelings, mood and ability.
It, moreover, seeks woman’s relationship with others as it is presented by the Iraqi
satirical television show “ State of Melon “.
The researcher adopted for that survey approach using the method of content analysis
to study the research sample represented by “ State of Melon “ show which was
exposed through the screen of a group of channels:
“Hona Baghdad Satellite Channel, then Asia Satellite Channel, Dijla Satellite Channel,
and UTV Satellite Channel.”For this, the researcher used Margaret Gallagher’s Model to analyze the image of
woman in
The aim of this research is subjected to discover The Dictation mistakes which occur
widely in the Arabic Language written by Iraqi – News papers.
The research classified These Mistakes in Three groups as Follows:
1. The first group dealing with distinguishing between the Arabic – letter ) ا ( When Written
or ) أ ( at The beginning The word and as ) ئ ( which differ in meaning from each other .
2. The second group dealing with the writing of The Arabic ) ٙ( and as ) ٛ( at the end of The
word which differ in meaning from each other.
3. The Third group dealing with distinguishing in written The Arabic letter as ) ض( or as ) )ظ
which differ in meaning From each other.
4. The fourth group dealing with Th
Terrorism is a global phenomenon that engulfs most regions of the world to varying degrees. Media outlets are aware of the many incidents of violence and terrorism that have increased in recent times. The differences between the size of the phenomenon in different societies are the causes and severity of the phenomenon. On the role of local satellite channels in shaping the knowledge and trends of the Iraqi public towards the events of terrorism, in light of the assumptions of reliance on the media. The importance of this study is that it assesses the role of local satellite channels in the formation of knowledge and trends The study seeks to know the extent of exposure of the Iraqi public to local satellite channels, and to reveal the e
... Show MoreThe research is aimed at investigating how the New York Times framed the war against ISIS in its news coverage and which news sources it adopted while reporting on this war.
The research could be classified under descriptive researches. The survey methodology has been adopted and the content analysis has been used. The research sample consists of all the news stories the New York Times have published about the war against ISIS from 10/17/2016 to 4/16/2017 according to the comprehensive sampling method. The number of news stories that were analyzed was (155) news story. The research tool was (coding scheme).
The research has reached the following conclusions:
1. In its news coverage of the war against ISIS, the New York T
Public relations are amongst the social sciences that rely on scientific methods in achieving new knowledge or resolving existing problems by means of its scientific researches that are often applied and require a classification in terms of their results’ analysis. It also requires subtle statistical processes whether in constructing their material or in analyzing and interpreting their results.
This research seeks to identify the relation between public relations and statistics, and the significance a researcher or practitioner in the domain of public relations should assign to statistics being one of the important criteria in identifying the accuracy and object
... Show MoreThe research is based on an important subject according to the researchers' estimations. It is the disclosure of the nature of the relationship between Watching to cultural programs in satellite channels and the book's vision of the intellectual, and the pursuit of purchasing and acquiring it It is a scientific addition to the scientific research media because it deals in the field of new about the nature of the relationship between satellite programs and writers, and it provides a scientific development on the importance of satellite channels in the promotion of the book and sales of intellectual elite. The study examined the audience of the recipients of literature for cultural programs, the nature of the public, characteristic
... Show Moreتحتل أدوات السياسة المالية (الإنفاقية والإيرادية) مكانة مهمة بين أدوات السياسات الاقتصادية الأخرى لما تتمتع به من تأثيرات اقتصادية واجتماعية على مجمل النشاط الاقتصادي .
وفي بحثنا هذا سنركز على الآثار الاجتماعية لأدوات السياسة المالية (الإنفاق العام والإيراد العام) لما للتنمية الاجتماعية من أهمية متزايدة في عالمنا اليوم خاصة فيما يتعلق بمقوماتها غير المادية المتمثلة في خدما
... Show MoreThe current study aims to cover the health topics in the Iraqi journalism , to know the concern 's level of the Iraqi journalism when covering the health subjects and to know the size of its performance under the diversity of visual and audio medias. The researcher has discussed his research by wording it with a set of inquiries that should be answered via the research and study. He could have determined that by the following:
What is the concern's level of Iraqi journalism over the health subjects? What are the forms and press arts that are functionalized by the Iraqi journalism as to get the health message to the republics? What is t
... Show MoreThe research aims to measure the impact of the quality of the audit on the Earnings Quality, for a sample of private joint stock companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange, as the research sample included (14) private and listed joint stock companies in issuing their financial statements for the period from (2010-2018), as well as companies The audit offices in charge of auditing these companies, which number (18) companies or an audit office, and the research relied on two main models for measurement, as the first model reflects the assumed relationship between independent variables represented in the characteristics of external audit quality and measuring the extent of its impact on the dependent variable represented in the Ea
... Show More