ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The Objective of the research is to identify the Strategic Vigilance and effect in the Managerial Decision Quality, by knowing the interest of the organization influence the Strategic Vigilance in the Managerial Decision Quality, adopted four dimensions of the Strategic Vigilance is (Environmental Vigilance, Commercial, Competitiveness & Technology) to indicate the extent individually and collectively impact in the Managerial Decision Quality, The questionnaire was used as a main tool to survey the views of a sample of 45 managers, was named Supreme Judicial Council society for research, and the statistical program SPSS, and research found a clear positive impact dimensions Strategic Vigilance in the Manageri
... Show MoreLes sociétés d’assurances sont considérées parmi les importantes entreprises financières non bancaires.
Pour que ces sociétés assurent sa continuité d’existence, il faut qu’elles veillent au rendement financier qui représente ses différentes actions durant une période déterminée, en effectuant une évaluation permanente en utilisant de différentes méthodes parmi lesquelles l’analyse financière avec ses aspects divers.
L’objectif de cette étude est d’évaluer le rendement financier des sociétés d’assurances et où projette l’étude sur la société Algérienne d’assurance durant la période 07- 09.
Banks are considered the main basis of financial sector ,so they must be submitted to sound and strict regulatory system and so as to ensure their operations and according to instructions and regulations , in order to maintain the integrity of the banking sector and financial sector in general .One of the importance regulatory tools that are adopted by the Iraqi Central Bank to control over the banks an financial and periodic statements that are provided by the banks in accordance with planned schedules .The financial statements of the banks must reflect clearly and accurately financial situation and the result of their activities during the period in which they represent to achiveing its purposes.So it has the goal of Search is statemen
... Show MoreThe financial fraud considers part of large concept to management and financial corruption, the financial fraud is appeared especially after corporate, that is Emerge agency theory, that is because recognize relationship between the management company and stakeholder, that is through group from constriction in order to block the management to fraud practice, that on the basis was choose another party in order fraud this practice and give opinion on financial statement, that consider basis decision making from stakeholder to basis the report auditor about creditability this is statement that reflect real activity for the company.The Auditor in order to lead work him Full professionalism to must using group from control Techniques, that is
... Show MoreThe research studies the main variables for the concept of sharing in knowledge in one of the most important control agencies in Iraq, which is (The Federal Board of Supreme Audit). Also, the quality of the controlling businesses by the Board in light of the major challenges that facing the fight against signs of cheating and administrative and financial corruption for offices submitted to controlled and auditing, with the increasing and intensification of these appearances. In order to enable the Board to cope with this situation, has to be thinking hard about how to achieve excellence, progress and development to face these situations, through the application of sharing in knowledge for the financial controller, and then achiev
... Show MoreAnalysis of the main financial statements (financial position, income, cash flow) using the analysis tools gives a clear picture of the results of the annual activity of the economic units, which contribute to the development of future plans and programs and identify weaknesses in the work of economic units including banks. Therefore, the indicators used in the analysis Would be feasible for the rest of the other sectors. such as Central Bank , Security exchange market , which will accordingly contribute in National product , determining market requirements , investor’s desires , knowing economic situation and providing liquidity in a timing manner.
The research aims to shed light on the role of SAIs and the nature of their work, with the definition of the concept of quality reports and to clarify the reality of quality in the FBSA reports, the researchers reached to conclusions, including: The quality of the SAI reports is a requirement seeks to achieve any regulatory system in order to develop audit work output of the form in which its impact is reflected positively on the performance of the entities controlled, and researchers gave a set of recommendations, including: the need to increase community awareness of the importance of the FBSA Supervisory reports through conferences, seminars and workshops and that FBSA to follow-up reports, and check the quality continuously to the fa
... Show MoreThe Psychologists have noticed, not long ago, that the man’s success and happiness in life do not only depend on his degree and education, which express on his mental intelligence but also they need another kind of intelligence called emotional intelligence. The research aims at identifying the emotional intelligence level of the top and administrative leaderships in the Federal Board of Supreme Audit by evaluating their emotional intelligence when the administrative and audit leaderships face emotional interactions by dealing with administrative and audit stuffs in the Board. The research problem is focused on the following question “Is the emotional intelligence of the top and administrative leaderships in the Fede
... Show MoreThe Research topic seeks to analyze the "political risk and its component Terrorism Index," which consists of five indicators index, a number of terrorist operations, and the number of dead and wounded, and the size of the physical losses, based search sub-index analysis of material losses for the index terrorism and its impact on the indicators listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange Finance. As for the practical side, it has been use style gradient unrestricted and link the sample represented by ten banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange. was Statement the correlation and interaction of variables of the studySearch results produced that the volume of material losses is the most important indicator in the influential force and it explain a v
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