ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The research consists of four chapters, and the research aims to uncover the melodic and rhythmic aspects of the Iraqi Sufi chanting (Thalilah as a model) as one of the models of Sufi chanting in Iraq that is held at the tomb of Sheikh "Abdul Qadir Al-Kilani". As for the temporal limit of the research, it is from 2011 to 2012.
The researcher selected two samples for the research sample:
1. Separation of the Thalilah of the Prophet Al Adnani
2. Separate the chanting of prayers
According to the musical analysis, the researcher prepared the search tool, which consisted of eight paragraphs, for a special standard system in line with the research objectives. The validity and reliability of the instrument was verified by experts to
Facing the Iraqi economy, a number of economic challenges that threaten the future of Iraq and the security of economic, political and social, such as poverty, unemployment, inflation and the dilapidated infrastructure and rising production costs and administrative and financial corruption, environmental pollution, water problems and the deterioration of agricultural and industrial production, etc., and over the seriousness of these challenges, they are intertwined and overlapping and growing worse, without the corresponding adoption of state strategies that will develop appropriate solutions and appropriate to resolve those challenges because of concern the subject of security and terrorism, which requires the development of an
... Show MoreReduction has been linked visually in art since man began making functional and aesthetic forms, and this beginning can be identified with cave paintings. Reduction is one of the clearest indications of intellectual presence in aesthetic experience. Modernism was greatly supported by the great transformations that the intellectual movement witnessed in the world in general and in Europe in particular. There, and their transfer of European artistic experiences, and the reflection of this influence in their aesthetic sculptures, and for this reason the researchers find that the study of the aesthetic references of the reductive forms in the Iraqi sculptural experience represents a great importance in the study of the history of contemporar
... Show MoreThe theatrical view reflects various connotations and intellectual and aesthetic implications, as the view includes a symbolic geometric, architectural and archetypal connotation suggestive of reality and nature, as theatrical art is the woman that reflects reality, specifically the significance of the theatrical view that reveals to us the philosophical, aesthetic and cognitive dimensions of theatrical trends, so the research came with the methodological framework, which It included the research problem (what is the significance of the scene as a symbolic system in the Iraqi theatrical performance), the importance of the research and the need for it, the research objective, the limits of the research and the most important terms.
A
Theatrical production mechanisms were determined according to the extents of the theatrical performance, the directing plan, and the ideas that the theatrical performance seeks to convey to the audience. Accordingly, theatrical production mechanisms differ between one theatrical performance and another according to the requirements of each of them and the surrounding circumstances that accompany the production of theatrical performance, and in order to search for production mechanisms and their repercussions on the show. Theatrical The current research was divided into four chapters, namely (Chapter One - Methodology), which identified the research problem in the following question: What are the production mechanisms and their implicatio
... Show MoreThe research aims to identify the level of psychological pollution in Iraqi society and the significant differences in psychological pollution in the Iraqi society according to variables. A sample of (600) individuals randomly selected from all governorates of Iraq, with (285) males and (315) females was used in the current study. The researcher adopted the scale of (Muhammad, 2004) psychological pollution consisting of (118) items, which limited (46) items after modification distributed into four areas: denial and abuse of the civilized identity, attachment to foreign formal aspects, effeminacy, and anarchism. The results of the research showed that there is no statistical significance among the individuals of the research sample. They
... Show MoreThe tagged research is concerned with observation and investigating the concepts of consistency and harmony in contemporary Iraqi painting (selected models) in order to reveal the mechanisms and rules of these two concepts in the artistic field and their mechanisms of operation. How reflected tools Consistency and harmony in contemporary Iraqi painting? What is consistency and what are its mechanisms and principles? Is consistency a unit product quality? Are there similarities between consistency and harmony? What is harmony and its principles and rules? As for the second chapter, it included two topics that dealt with the first topic - consistency and harmony between concept and significance, while the second topic meant - histor
... Show MoreObjective: To establish growth curve for a sample of infertile women and to assess Body Mass Index.
Methodology: Non-probability (purposive sample) of (100) infertile women, who visit Kamal Al-Samaraee
Hospital/ fertility and IVF center . The data are collected through the use of constructed questionnaire, which
consists of two parts. Part 1: consists of (5) items about demographic characteristics, part 2: consists of (4) items
about reproductive status, descriptive statistical analysis procedures (frequency, percentage, Contingency
coefficients, polynomial cube order).
Results: Revealed that the infertile women in the study group had decrease in their Body Mass Index with aging
(with increase of infertility duration
Bank credit function plays an important role in realizing the targets of commercial banks , so that the credit dominate the most of assets for these banks , also the credit contribute by bigger share of operational income for these banks .Bank credit faces
high challenge that it is bank credit risks which hinder realizing goals of bank credit . the researcher discover that in spite of the international accounting standards assured that it is necessary to disclose about risks related assets, which include bank credit, and also disclosure about fund which specified to face probable loss for this credit , but the recent disclosure about bank credit risks and its provision indicate that it faces sever defect which hinder
... Show MoreThe research aims to clarify the COBIT5 framework for IT governance and to develop of a criterion based on Balanced Scorecard that contributes in measuring the performance of IT governance. To achieve these goals, the researchers adopted the deductive approach in the design of balanced scorecard to measure the IT governance at the Bank of Baghdad that was chosen because it relied heavily on IT.
The research has reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which is that the performance of IT department in the Bank of Baghdad falls within the good level that requires constant monitoring, the most committed items of Balanced Scorecard by the Bank were customer, internal operation, growth and finally the financial item; IT
... Show More