ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Abstract
The research aims to demonstrate the commitment of the Federal Financial Supervisory Bureau to meet the requirements of the International Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions (INTOSAI) 3000, the general and private supervision of performance as the highest supervisory authority in Iraq, which is the only authorized to carry out the process of monitoring the performance of government work and activities. To analyze and present the results of the survey questionnaire prepared for the compliance of the Bureau with the requirements of the general and specific criteria related to the performance control process. The researcher reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which is the commitment of the
... Show MoreFind the impediments Activity vital and important, but focuses a bancassurance activity, diagnosis and its impact on the financial ratios indicators for insurance companies. The researcher has adopted in his research on several financial ratios used to analyze the financial performance of a (relative profitability, liquidity ratio and the ratio of solvency) of the company Iraqi insurance for a period of one year (2009) to a year (2015), based on the annual reports and financial statements (balance sheet revealed income), financial statements for insurance premiums for banks research sample of this research has addressed several topics of theoretical and practical body through which the researcher obstacles to banking and insurance experi
... Show MoreThe researcher highlighted in his research on an important subject that people need, which is the excuse of ignorance in Islamic law. , As the flag of light and ignorance of darkness. Then the researcher lameness of the reasons for research in this subject as it is one of the assets that should be practiced by the ruler and the judge and the mufti and the diligent and jurisprudent, but the public should identify the issues that ignore ignorance and issues that are not excused even if claimed ignorance.
Then the researcher concluded the most important results, and recommendations that he wanted to set scientific rules for students of science and Muslims in general, to follow the issues of legitimacy and learn its provisions and i
The research aims to explain the reality and the roots of the problem financial crisis and its impact on the performance of the Amman Stock Exchange, by testing three hypotheses, the first and the second relates to the performance of the Amman Stock Exchange and its sectors before and after the financial crisis. And the third examined the relationship between indirect foreign investment and the performance of Amman Stock Exchange.
Hypothesis testing results of the first and second pointed to the existence of statistically significant differences for the performance of the stock market in general and in particular their performance for the period before and after the financial crisis. The third hypothesis resu
It has aimed by this research at presenting new interpretations to diversification phenomenon and its possible effects on firm value. These interpretations are culminated by the disclosure of the distinct role of resource-based view in the study of relationship between diversification strategy and firm value. The study has conducted on a sample consisted of the largest American companies listed in Fortune 500 along with seven years period
(2005-2011). This first local attempt, which has based on panel dat--a analysis for interpreting an expected variance of firm value due to diversification strategy, may helps with a clear vision to solve the contradiction and confusion surrounded the true linkages between t
The subject of the act and its transformations in the presentation is of great importance at the level of study, analysis and interpretation, and through that the researcher adopted the following title (The Dramatic Act and Its Transformations in the Iraqi Theatrical Show). The play of Black Astronomy was chosen as a sample for analysis, and the aim of the research came in order to achieve a special knowledge of the extent of the transformation that occurred between the dramatic structure of the act and theatrical embodiment and its multiple elements of operation in the Iraqi theatrical shows. It was limited to the show of the Iraqi theater in the year (2020) and included the theoretical framework that accommodated three sections. As for
... Show MoreThe research aims to achieve a set of objectives, the most important of which is to educate the management of companies operating in the private sector about the advantages and risks of using creative accounting practices, as on the one hand they serve the interests of the company and improve its image, and on the other hand it exposes it to the risks of non-compliance with tax laws and legislation or the risks of default and bankruptcy as a result of exploiting gaps and flexibility in the application Accounting standards, and in line with the objectives and through the research problem that was formulated in the form of a question (Are their creative accounting practices that are reflected in the honesty and fairness of financia
... Show MoreThe study aims to know the preference of the Iraqi consumer of imported dairy products to local, which has increased demand in recent years due to various reasons including commodity dumping policy that Iraq has been suffering since 2003, which has led to decline in the role of local dairy product in our markets and its inability to compete with imported product for different reasons. The research utilized questionnaire as a survey tool of the opinions of a sample of Iraqi 92 consumers in Baghdad/Alrisafa. The questionnaire consisted of twenty questions included the four components of marketing mixture (product quality, price, place, and promotion). Weighted mean and percentage weight used for data analysis. The study showed that the mos
... Show MoreSince its inception, the theatrical performance has been based on the principle of permanence, continuity, renewal and innovation in the structure of its visual elements. These innovations and the effectiveness of continuity cannot be achieved without searching for everything that is new and different at the level (form and content) in order to create an image with innovative and effective features in the theatrical discourse, and from Among the elements of the theatrical performance (theatrical costumes) that have been subject to variation since the beginning of the theater until now, and for this purpose, the current research was conducted with the question of the research problem: What are the variations of costumes in the contemporar
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