ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
In this study, the CR-39 detector technique was used, to estimate the uranium concentration from the soil in midland refineries Company (Doura refine (, Baghdad, Iraq. Uranium concentrations in soil samples have been measured using solid state nuclear track detector type CR-39. Nine soil samples were collected from different areas within the Doura refinery and other soil samples were collected form Abu Tayara Street and ALshortaa District outside the refinery for comparison. The results showed variable values for uranium concentrations. The average value of uranium concentration was found to be 0.37 ppm in doura refinery. For areas outside the refinery, the concentration of uranium was 0.008 ppm. Thes
... Show MoreLibraries, information centers, and everything related to organizing and preparing information need to be periodically re-evaluated in order to stand on the level of quality, which means improving the general reality of these institutions to ensure sufficient satisfaction from beneficiaries of the services provided. This is what was worked on in this research, as one of the most important quality standards in libraries and information centers, LibQUAL+®, was applied in one of the most important and oldest central university libraries, namely the Central Library of the University of Baghdad at its two locations, Al-Jadriya and Al-Waziriya. The sample of beneficiaries to whom the questionnaire was distributed reached 75 beneficiaries distrib
... Show MoreOne of the troublesome duties in chemical industrial units is determining the instantaneous drop size distribution, which is created between two immiscible liquids within such units. In this work a complete system for measuring instantaneous droplet size is constructed. It consists of laser detection system (1mW He-Ne laser), drop generation system (turbine mixer unit), and microphotography system. Two immiscible liquids, water and kerosene were mixed together with different low volume fractions (0.0025, 0.02) of kerosene (as a dispersed phase) in water (as a continuous phase). The experiments were carried out at different rotational speed (1180- 2090 r.p.m) of the turbine mixer. The Sauter mean diameter of the drops was determined by la
... Show MoreThe objective of this research to analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy in achieving economic stability and growth for the period 2004-2011 ،This period of time saw a fundamental shift in monetary policy after the issuing new law the Central Bank of the full independence of the monetary authority ،This is Prompt the monetary authority to bring about a change in the philosophy and objectives and the tools used to achieve the desired goals ،Which give them the ability to control the size of the money supply and to achieve price stability Indeed، Monetary policy has been able to achieve the golden triangle of economic stability ،Consisted of staff، exchange rate stability and low and stable general level of prices
... Show MoreIraq within the ranks of the fledgling communities characterized by a broad base of the population pyramid, because they pose the age group (under 15 years) of a large proportion of the community, as it exceeded the proportion (40%) during the years of research extended (1986-2010) Despite the relative decline in the rates fertility during that period, but the proportion of young people remained high, especially for groups of at least five years, amounting to about 14% in 2012, a little more than the proportion of what constitutes age group (5-9 above) years, where it was (13%) and this naturally predicts continuing population increases in coming decades, due to the entry of those numbers of individuals in the reproductive stage,
... Show MoreThe Sebkha is considered the evaporative geomorphological features, where climate plays an active role. It forms part of the surface features in Mesopotamia plain of Iraqi, which is the most fertile lands, and because of complimentary natural and human factors turned most of the arable land to the territory of Sebkha lands. The use satellite image (Raw Data), Landsat 30M Mss for the year 1976 Landsat 7 ETM, and the Landsat 8 for year 2013 (LDCM) for the summer Landsat Data Continuity Mission and perform geometric correction, enhancements, and Subset image And a visual analysis Space visuals based on the analysis of spectral fingerprints earth's This study has shown that the best in the discrimination of Sebkha Remote sensing techniques a
... Show MoreThe inflation phenomenon inherent to all economies in the world, including Iraq, and to find out the reasons for this phenomenon must be measured impact on the national economy, and is the index of consumer prices of the most common measure of inflation in order to find the means and the treatments needed and this can be reached through the study of the role of aggregates Commodity and its impact on the general trend of cash inflation, in Iraq for the period 2004 2009 to determine the groups lead to inflation in Iraq, where it emerged that the group rent is ranked first in the proportion of its contribution to the index of consumer prices, and food group is ranked second. The fuel and lighting group ranked third.
Source of energy and protein Field crops considered an important needed for human
beings Due of this fact increases should appear in the quantities of their production in order to
meet the needs of continuous increasing in the population of the glope year after year ;
otherwise, an increase in the gap between the amount of production and consumption will
occur .
This study aims to reveal the geographical distribution of the potato crop in the district
of Abu – Ghraib. For this purpose, a study conducted about the cultivated areas, production
and crop yields per Dunam for period of 7 years lasted from 2005-2011.
The study shows that potato is one of the most important field crops that are grown in
the Abu –
The research, whose goal was to study students' failure in secondary school in Iraq, found that 50% of the Iraqi governorates achieved the lowest student failure rates, and Baghdad governorate had the highest percentage of repeaters. And that half of the provinces in Iraq have males constitute 70% of the repeaters, and failure in the exam represented 79.7% of the reasons for failure, and that half of the students who failed are confined to the first and third intermediate grades at a rate of 51.9% , and the research revealed that the security instability was the most influential factor in Students fai
Abstract
Tourism is one of the essential economic fields of many countries, both developed and developing. The social plays a greater role in the continuous awareness of a tourist culture based on the need to attract tourists continuously. the tourism heritage and state-owned tourism are the main factors in attracting more tourists. The interest in this strategic sector makes the country the first and most active framework in the development of appropriate mechanisms for investment in this sector, all within the framework of sustainable development of society through the rational use of resources obtained by various bodies in the implementation of seve
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