ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The interest in the consumer and the search for appropriate means to protect it is not recent. The consumer protection has been the focus of legal, judicial and juristic interest, since the middle of the last century, and this interest has resulted in the adoption of many rules that would provide protection to the consumer as the weak party in the contractual relationship .banking laws sought to determine who is the banking consumer covered by protection, as well as to indentify financial institutions that are committed to providing protection to the banking consumer when providing banking services, also ,the scope of consumer protection requires determining the banking activities provided
... Show MoreThe entrance process re-engineering one of the main entrances of administrative and technology appropriate to keep pace with scientific progress and the continuing changes in business environment and for the purpose of achieving the goal sought by the organizations in the pursuit of rapid developments and renewable energy in the market competition by changing its operations and activities of the radical change which contributes to an effective contribution to reducing the cost of product or service taking into account the quality improvement in the management of change to keep the increase value and speed of placing on the market to meet customer needs and desires to achieve a
... Show MoreThe organizational integration forms a necessity according to McKinsey model, especially for service organizations. In the context of various service sector developments, importance adoption of compact mechanisms by these organizations to upgrade their services has increased and senior management must be more aware of environmental, competitive and developmental requirements. It gets more important when it shows in an organization seeking at excellence of making services within its policies and strategies. Subject organizational integration dimensions (strategy, structure, systems, style, staff, shared values, and skills) are effective components in directing behaviors of employees and organization. This motivated both researcher
... Show MoreIn the early 90s military operations and United Nations Special Commission “UNSCOM” teams have been destroyed the past Iraqi chemical program. Both operations led an extensive number of scattered remnants of contaminated areas. The quantities of hazardous materials, incomplete destructed materials, and toxic chemicals were sealed in two bunkers. Deficiency of appropriate destruction technology led to spreading the contamination around the storage site. This paper aims to introduce the environmental detection of the contamination in the storage site area using geospatial analysis technique. The environmental contamination level of nutrients and major ions such as sulphate (SO4), potassium (K), sodium (Na), magnesi
... Show MoreThe research is based on a statement of the effect and nature of the relationship of elements of promotional mix represented by (advertising, personal selling, sales promotion, public relations and direct marketing) as the independent variable in the dependent variable represented in the competitive advantage in the General Company for the manufacture of medicines and medical supplies Samarra. Analytical descriptive in the theoretical side, through the use of a number of literature from scientific sources (books, research and studies published in Arab and foreign magazines) was also relied on the methodology of the case study in the practical side, Data collection using the questionnaire tool, which was designed using the triangular Like
... Show MoreThe use analysis value chain such information in the provision as financial so information quality meet and satisfy the needs of users such information , particularly investors and lenders as the identification needs financial information and the knowledge as their behavior influenced by that information can be based on the accounting profession to focus on improving their function in order to achieve its goal that satisfying their needs and rationalize their decisions . In accounting thought discovered fertile ground for users preferences as one of the entrances theorising positive which is based on the need to include knowledge on accounting hypothesis that explain the
... Show MoreThis study aims to expand the traditional model in calculating the break-even point to include the cost of capital invested and the funds employed in industrial companies through a change in the traditional model and the effect of adopting the advanced model of the break point on the operational leverage in planning profits in industrial companies. Where, the analysis of the break-even point and the operational leverage of the tools important by the management, which is used in the field of planning profits. A parity analysis in its sophisticated model will help in planning profits and determine the optimal size of production that maximizes profits. For its part, the operational leverage helps to make decisions regarding the expansion of
... Show More"The aim of the research is to identify the availability of the dimensions of the research variables represented by organizational symmetry and the quality of work-life at the University of Information and Communications Technology, which is one of the formations of the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research in Baghdad, in addition to knowing the relationship and influence between them. The research relied on the descriptive analytical approach based on peer description. The research was analyzed and the research sample consisted of (148) individuals, the sample was chosen using the comprehensive inventory method, data was obtained by relying on the questionnaire which was prepared from ready-made m
... Show MoreThe aim of the current research is to study the effect of adding green tea to the edible film prepared from the whey protein isolate on the effectiveness of microorganisms and evaluating the of antimicrobial effectiveness of these films on Iraqi soft cheese packaging during the nine days of storage as an alternative to commercial packaging. At the beginning of the study, the minimum inhibitory concentration was measured by calculate the diameter of the zone of inhibition on growth of the bacteria and it's included the group of Gram negative bacteria (Escherichia coli, Salmonella spp, Pseudomonas Aeruginosa) and the group of Gram positive bacteria (Staphylococcus Aureus, Bacillus spp) and a yeast (Candida Albican). Where the diameter of t
... Show MoreAfter the political change in Iraq in 2003, Iraq witnessed a stage of social and political development and the strengthening of the legal foundations of the state system, by the approval of the permanent Iraqi constitution of 2005, and stipulating the quota system.
Iraqi women participated in the parliamentary elections from 2005 until 2021, and despite the participation of Iraqi women in all elections, there are challenges that women in Iraq face that prevent their political participation in general and participation in parliament in particular. There are factors behind this, including those related to Iraqi women themselves, including those concerning the political institution and factors related to the nature of society, and it
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