Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

          The primary objective of this paper is to improve a biometric authentication and classification model using the ear as a distinct part of the face since it is unchanged with time and unaffected by facial expressions. The proposed model is a new scenario for enhancing ear recognition accuracy via modifying the AdaBoost algorithm to optimize adaptive learning. To overcome the limitation of image illumination, occlusion, and problems of image registration, the Scale-invariant feature transform technique was used to extract features. Various consecutive phases were used to improve classification accuracy. These phases are image acquisition, preprocessing, filtering, smoothing, and feature extraction. To assess the proposed

The monthly time series of the Total Suspended Solids (TSS) concentrations in Euphrates River at Nasria was analyzed as a time series. The data used for the analysis was the monthly series during (1977-2000).

The series was tested for nonhomogenity and found to be nonhomogeneous. A significant positive jump was observed after 1988. This nonhomogenity was removed using a method suggested by Yevichevich (7). The homogeneous series was then normalized using Box and Cox (2) transformation. The periodic component of the series was fitted using harmonic analyses, and removed from the series to obtain the dependent stochastic component. This component was then modeled using first order autoregressive model (Markovian chain). The above a

The study aimed to test the hypothesis of Caldor to estimate the relationship between industrial production and GDP growth in Iraq using with Integration Framework  and to determine the causal relationship in the short and long term using the error correction vector model for the period 1990-2016. the results showed a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and industrial output, while Ganger causality tests showed a causal relationship in the long run of GDP to output Subliminal thus illustrated the extent of the recession suffered by the industrial sector, which is supposed to be the driving force of the economy and the development and expansion of the productive base of the industry, so this study recommends attent

The Late Cretaceous-Early Paleocene Shiranish and Aliji formations have been studied in three selected wells in Jambur Oil Field (Ja-50, Ja-53, and Ja-67) in Kirkuk, Northeastern Iraq. This study included lithostratigraphy and biostratigraphy. The Late Campanian-Maastrichtian Shiranish Formation consist mainly of thin marly and chalky limestone beds overlain by thin marl beds, with some beds of marly limestone representing an outer shelf basinal environment, the unconformable contact with the above Middle Paleocene-Early Eocene Aliji Formation contain layers of limestone with marly limestone and chalky limestone which represents an outer shelf basinal environment. Five Biozones in the Shiranish Formation were determined which are: 1

Background: Most adult smokers start smoking regularly some time before 18 years of age. Cigarette smoking is a major ‘preventable’ cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. It is well-known that smoking has hazardous effect on many systems like pulmonary and cardiovascular system.

Objectives: Study the prevalence of smoking among school pupils according to the mode of smoking, age, school grade, school environment and possible health risk associated with smoking. Type of the study: A cross-sectional study.

Methods: Study was conducted between 1st of March 2014 to 30th of May 2014 at Al-Doura/Al- Kurkh/Baghdad by using convenient sample, including all pupils from 6 schools. The schools were 2 secondary schools, 3 in