The study of Lake Hamrin is of enormous importance in understanding changes in water levels and their impact on the local environment. It helps to clarify the role of climatic and human factors in the decline of its water resources from 2013 to 2023 in order to ensure sustainable solutions. Satellite imagery from Landsat 8 is used, and processing is performed using ArcGIS Pro and ENVI. The normalized vegetation index (NDVI) is applied to show the changes in the vegetation cover and reveal the amount of change in the surface water area of the lake. It is noted that the water area changes in one year as it increases in the rainy season and decreases in the summer, and it also varies from one year to another with the difference in the amount o

Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

المستخلص [English] Peace-building is a science that has its foundations and needs mechanisms, components, studies and plans based on the needs of the parties responsible for achieving peace and meeting the necessary needs of conflict societies, as it has become a goal sought by many local and regional actors and parties. The State of South Africa has realized this fact and has devoted space in its conception and planning to addressing the issues of conflict and war within the framework of its unitary work.Since security and stability in general seek to create peaceful and legal means through which existing problems can be expressed and addressed. The differences have varied to build peace and create cooperation between groups and th

The study aimed to test the hypothesis of Caldor to estimate the relationship between industrial production and GDP growth in Iraq using with Integration Framework  and to determine the causal relationship in the short and long term using the error correction vector model for the period 1990-2016. the results showed a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and industrial output, while Ganger causality tests showed a causal relationship in the long run of GDP to output Subliminal thus illustrated the extent of the recession suffered by the industrial sector, which is supposed to be the driving force of the economy and the development and expansion of the productive base of the industry, so this study recommends attent

Background: Most adult smokers start smoking regularly some time before 18 years of age. Cigarette smoking is a major ‘preventable’ cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. It is well-known that smoking has hazardous effect on many systems like pulmonary and cardiovascular system.

Objectives: Study the prevalence of smoking among school pupils according to the mode of smoking, age, school grade, school environment and possible health risk associated with smoking. Type of the study: A cross-sectional study.

Methods: Study was conducted between 1st of March 2014 to 30th of May 2014 at Al-Doura/Al- Kurkh/Baghdad by using convenient sample, including all pupils from 6 schools. The schools were 2 secondary schools, 3 in

The monthly time series of the Total Suspended Solids (TSS) concentrations in Euphrates River at Nasria was analyzed as a time series. The data used for the analysis was the monthly series during (1977-2000).

The series was tested for nonhomogenity and found to be nonhomogeneous. A significant positive jump was observed after 1988. This nonhomogenity was removed using a method suggested by Yevichevich (7). The homogeneous series was then normalized using Box and Cox (2) transformation. The periodic component of the series was fitted using harmonic analyses, and removed from the series to obtain the dependent stochastic component. This component was then modeled using first order autoregressive model (Markovian chain). The above a