Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

This work is concerned with designing two types of controllers, a PID and a Fuzzy PID, to be used
for flying and stabilizing a quadcopter. The designed controllers have been tuned, tested, and
compared using two performance indices which are the Integral Square Error (ISE) and the Integral
Absolute Error (IAE), and also some response characteristics like the rise time, overshoot, settling
time, and the steady state error. To try and test the controllers, a quadcopter mathematical model has
been developed. The model concentrated on the rotational dynamics of the quadcopter, i.e. the roll,
pitch, and yaw variables. The work has been simulated with “MATLAB”. To make testing the
simulated model and the controllers m

This study aims to design unified  electronic information system to manage students attendance in Lebanese French university/Erbil, as a system that simplifies the process of entering and counting the students absence, and generate absence reports to expel students who passed  the acceptable limit of being absent, and by that we can replace the traditional way of  using papers to count absence,  with  a complete electronically system for managing students attendance, in a way that makes the results accurate and unchangeable by the students.

            In order to achieve the study's objectives, we designed an information syst

     A partial temporary immunity SIR epidemic model involv nonlinear treatment rate is proposed and studied. The basic reproduction number  is determined. The local and global stability of all equilibria of the model are analyzed. The conditions for occurrence of local bifurcation in the proposed epidemic model are established. Finally, numerical simulation is used to confirm our obtained analytical results and specify the control set of parameters that affect the dynamics of the model.

The phenomenon of spatial variation in the economic, social and urban development levels is considered prevalent in most of the economic and social systems,this relates to the concentration of most of those activities in certain regions and because of their rarity in other regions , that led to the emergence of the problem of the sharp contrast between the most developed areas and least developed areas within the same region or within the regions of the same country,
Reduction of this variables , in addition to the development of areas through following up and relying on an effective regional development enabling to reduce unemployment as well as to stop the migration of the unplanned for population,
And the ideal use of available

The current study is concerned with the analysis of spatial and temporal to death the elderly population in the city of Baghdad and at the level of administrative units Minor (districts and the areas) depending on the general population census of the province of Baghdad, data for 1997 and data from the Ministry of Health Department of Health and Vital Statistics for 2013.
The study showed differing age and quality of mortality rates at the level of administrative units of the study area, and notes the high mortality rates of elderly people of all age groups in 2013 compared to 1997, and this is due to security conditions after the USA occupation, and the accompanying conditions have affected the increase in mortality rates.

The Umm Al-Naaj Marsh was chosen in Maysan province, and it is one of the sections of Mar Al-Hawza, which is one of the most prominent Iraqi marshes in the south. The marshes are located between latitudes 30 35 and 32 45 latitudes and longitudes 13 46 and 48 00. The area of the study area is 76479.432142 hectares to evaluate soil quality and health index and their spatial distribution based on measuring physical, chemical, biological and fertility traits and calculating the total quality index for those characteristics. Using an auger drilling machine, we collected 50 randomly selected surface samples, evenly distributed across the study region, from Al-Aq 0.0–0.30 m, noting their precise locations along the way. Soil health and quality w