: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier model, and the expected trend is obtained using simple linear regression models. Actual and generation data were used for the performance evaluation of the proposed model. The results of the current model, with improvement, showed higher accuracy as compared to ARIMA model performance.
Hyperbole is an obvious and intentional exaggeration in the sense that it takes things to such an extreme that the audience goes too far and then pulls itself back to a more reasonable position, i.e. it is an extravagant statement or figure of speech not intended to be taken literally. This paper focuses on the formal and functional perspectives in the analysis of hyperbole which American candidates produce in their speeches in electoral campaigns, for it is hypothesized that candidates in their electoral campaigns use hyperbolic expressions excessively to persuade voters of the objectives of their electoral campaign programs. Hence, it aims to analyze hyperbole in context to determine the range of pragmatic func
... Show MoreThe economical design of plate loaded by pressure can be obtained by using stiffeners instead of increasing the thickness of plate. The main subject of this work is to obtain the effect of stiffener height on the maximum stress in the plate subjected to pressure load. Different plate-stiffener sets are selected to find the effects of stiffener thickness, plate dimensions and pressure, on the optimum stiffener height. The models under consideration are square plates clamped rigidly from four edges. Finite Element method is used to analyze 160 different models by using the Finite Element software package ANSYS version 11. Another analysis method based on maximum stress equation is used to analyze 30 models. The graphical comparison of results
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to use the data content analysis technique (DEA) in evaluating the efficiency of the performance of the eight branches of the General Tax Authority, located in Baghdad, represented by Karrada, Karkh parties, Karkh Center, Dora, Bayaa, Kadhimiya, New Baghdad, Rusafa according to the determination of the inputs represented by the number of non-accountable taxpayers and according to the categories professions and commercial business, deduction, transfer of property ownership, real estate and tenders, In addition to determining the outputs according to the checklist that contains nine dimensions to assess the efficiency of the performance of the investigated branches by investing their available resources T
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The current research aims to identify the analysis of the questions for the book of literary criticism for the preparatory stage according to Bloom's classification. The research community consists of (34) exercises and (45) questions. The researcher used the method of analyzing questions and prepared a preliminary list that includes criteria that are supposed to measure exercises, which were selected based on Bloom's classification and the extant literature related to the topic. The scales were exposed to a jury of experts and specialists in curricula and methods of teaching the Arabic language. The scales obtained a complete agreement. Thus, it was adapted to become a reliable instrument in this
... Show MoreBackground: Beta thalassemia major (β-TM) is an inheritable condition with many complications, especially in children. The blood-borne viral infection was proposed as a risk factor due to the recurrent blood transfusion regimen (hemotherapy) as human parvovirus B19 (B19V). Objective: This study investigated the B19V seroprevalence, DNA presence, B19V viral load, and B19V genotypes in β-TM patients and blood donors. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study incorporating 180 subjects, segregated into three distinct groups each of 60 patients, namely control, β-TM, and β-TM infected with Hepatitis C Virus (HCV). For the B19V prevalence in the studied group, the ELISA technique and real-time PCR were used. The genotyping was follo
... Show MoreThis paper presents numerical and experimental stress analyses to evaluate the contact and bending stresses on the teeth of spiral bevel gear drive. Finite Element Method has been adopted as a numerical technique which accomplished basically by using ANSYS software package. The experimental stress analysis has been achieved by using a gear tooth model made of Castolite material which has photoelastic properties. The main goal of this research is detecting the maximum tooth stresses to avoid the severe areas that caused tooth failure and to increase the working life for this type of gear drives.
The thermal performance of three solar collectors with 3, 6 mm and without perforation absorber plate was assessed experimentally. The experimental tests were implemented in Baghdad during the January and February 2017. Five values of airflow rates range between 0.01 – 0.1 m3/s were used through the test with a constant airflow rate during the test day. The variation of the following parameters air temperature difference, useful energy, absorber plate temperature, and collector efficiency was recorded every 15 minutes. The experimental data reports that the increases the number of absorber plate perforations with a small diameter is more efficient rather than increasing the hole diameter of the absorber plate with decr
... Show MoreNew series of metal ions complexes have been prepared from the new ligand [4-Amino-N-(5-methyl-isaxazol-3-yl)-benzenesulfonamide] derived from Sulfamethoxazole and 3-aminophenol. Accordingly, mono-nuclear Mn(II), Fe(III), Co (II), and Rh(III) complexes were prepared by the reaction of previous ligand with MnCl2.4H2O, CoCl2.6H2O, FeCl3.6H2O and RhCl3H2O, respectively. The compounds have been characterized by Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR), ultraviolet–visible (UV–vis), mass, 1H-, and 13C-nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra and thermo gravimetric analysis (TGA& DSC) curve, Bohr magnetic (B.M.), elemental microanal
... Show MoreThis study presents a mathematical model describing the interaction of gut bacteria in the participation of probiotics and antibiotics, assuming that some good bacteria become harmful through mutations due to antibiotic exposure. The qualitative analysis exposes twelve equilibrium points, such as a good-bacteria equilibrium, a bad-bacteria equilibrium, and a coexisting endemic equilibrium in which both bacteria exist while being exposed to antibiotics. The theory of the Sotomayor theorem is applied to study the local bifurcation around all possible equilibrium points. It’s noticed that the transcritical and saddle-node bifurcation could occur near some of the system’s equilibrium points, while pitchfork bifurcation cannot be accrued at
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