: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier model, and the expected trend is obtained using simple linear regression models. Actual and generation data were used for the performance evaluation of the proposed model. The results of the current model, with improvement, showed higher accuracy as compared to ARIMA model performance.
The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange r
... Show MoreSoil suction is one of the most important parameters describing the moisture condition of unsaturated soils. The measurement of soil suction is crucial for applying the theories of the engineering behavior of unsaturated soils.
The filter paper method is one of the soil suction measurement techniques In this paper, five soil samples were collected from five sites within Baghdad city – al-Rasafa region. These soils have different properties and they were prepared at different degrees of saturation. For each sample, the total and matric suction were measured by the filter paper method at different degrees of saturation. Then correlations were made between the soil properties and the total and matric suction. It was concluded that the
The influence of adding metal foam fins on the heat transfer characteristics of an air to water double pipe heat exchanger is numerically investigated. The hot fluid is water which flows in the inner cylinder whereas the cold fluid is air which circulates in the annular gap in parallel flow with water. Ten fins of metal foam (Porosity = 0.93), are added in the gap between the two cylinder, and distributed periodically with the axial distance. Finite volume method is used to solve the governing equations in porous and non-porous regions. The numerical investigations cover three values for Reynolds number (1000 ,1500, 2000), and Darcy number (1 x10-1, 1 x10-2, 1x10-3). The comparison betwee
... Show Morewe studied the effect of low level laser therapy (LLLT) using diode laser with wavelength of (790-805) nm in promotion and enhancement of wound healing of episiotomy and to evaluate the analgesic effect of LLLT in reducing the pain sensation caused by the episiotomy wounds. Nineteen women with episiotomy wound were selected and divided into three groups; 1st group (group No.1: control group) given antibiotics without laser therapy, in the 2nd group (group No.2) the wounds were exposed to laser therapy (4 sessions, each session with energy density of 19.90 J /cm2 every other day ) and systemic antibiotics were prescribed for 1 week. In the 3rd group (group No.3) the wounds were exposed to laser therapy (4 sessions, the same as in the 2nd
... Show MoreThe Electrical power system has become vast and more complex, so it is subjected to sudden changes in load levels. Stability is an important concept which determines the stable operation of the power system. Transient stability analysis has become one of the significant studies in the power system to ensure the system stability to withstand a considerable disturbance. The effect of temporary occurrence can lead to malfunction of electronic control equipment. The application of flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS) devices in the transmission system have introduced several changes in the power system. These changes have a significant impact on the power system protection, due to differences inline impedance, line curre
... Show MoreThis research is a continued efforts for a project on the fire tube boiler control for Al Rasheed edible oil factory. The aim is to enhance the control system with new integral control one. A functional blocks diagram (FBD) was built and simulated. With Schneider smart relays, FBD differs than ladder logic programming in which the PID option is active. An extensive work was done to understand the operation sequence, emergency shutdown, and faults causing the trips. A control program was designed to control logical sequence of operation. Furthermore temperature is controlled via cascade control with fuel and air controllers. The temperature controller output is send as remote set point to the fuel controller in a serial cascade manner. The f
... Show MoreAn experimental and theoretical study has been done to investigate the thermal performance of different types of air solar collectors, In this work air solar collector with a dimensions of (120 cm x90 cm x12 cm) , was tested under climate condition of Baghdad city with a (43° tilt angel) by using the absorber plate (1.45 mm thickness, 115 cm height x 84 cm width), which was manufactured from iron painted with a black matt.
The experimental test deals with five types of absorber:-
Conventional smooth flat plate absorber , Finned absorber , Corrugated absorber plate, Iron wire mesh on absorber And matrix of porous media on absorber .
The hourly and average efficiency of the collectors
... Show MoreThe growing demand for sustainable and high-performance asphalt binders has prompted the exploration of waste-derived modifiers. This study investigates the performance enhancement of Natural Asphalt (NA) using Sugarcane Molasses (SM) and Waste Engine Oil (WEO). The modified blends were prepared by partially replacing 50 % NA with varying proportions of SM and WEO ranging from 10 % to 40 % of the total weight of NA. Comprehensive testing was conducted, including penetration, softening point, ductility, viscosity, Bending Beam Rheometer (BBR), Multiple Stress Creep Recovery (MSCR), Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDX), Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). The results demonstrated that
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