This study investigates asset returns within the Iraq Stock Exchange by employing both the Fama-MacBeth regression model and the Fama-French three-factor model. The research involves the estimation of cross-sectional regressions wherein model parameters are subject to temporal variation, and the independent variables function as proxies. The dataset comprises information from the first quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2024, encompassing 22 publicly listed companies across six industrial sectors. The study explores methodological advancements through the application of the Single Index Model (SIM) and Kernel Weighted Regression (KWR) in both time series and cross-sectional analyses. The SIM outperformed the KWR approach in estimating time-varying beta coefficients, yielding a mean Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.14316. Furthermore, the integrated KWR-SIM methodology achieved the lowest Adjusted Root Mean Squared Error (ARMSE) value of 0.08152 when modelling the association between risk factors and asset returns within the cross-sectional analytical framework. Statistical tests for significance produced heterogeneous responses of the returns on assets in the Iraqi financial market to the Fama-French posited economic variables. The estimated coefficients for the betas showed significant oscillations for all assets, confirming changes in economic conditions. The results add to our knowledge of the risk-reward relationship in the context of emerging markets and provide methodological insights into financial asset pricing. The evidence indicates that the KWR-SIM method has better capabilities for model fitting
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models
... Show MorePoverty is defined as a low standard of living in the sense that a poor person can not afford a minimum standard of living. The phenomenon of poverty is one of the most serious problems that must be dealt with seriously. This phenomenon has persisted in Iraq for decades because of the harsh economic conditions and unstable security conditions due to the crises it has faced since 2013. This study requires much study and analysis. And rural areas as a special case. In this study, the researcher examined the poverty line as a criterion in estimating the poverty indicators, which include (poverty percentage H, poverty gap PG, poverty intensity PS), based on the continuous social and economic survey data for households in 2014. The ma
... Show MoreCox regression model have been used to estimate proportion hazard model for patients with hepatitis disease recorded in Gastrointestinal and Hepatic diseases Hospital in Iraq for (2002 -2005). Data consists of (age, gender, survival time terminal stat). A Kaplan-Meier method has been applied to estimate survival function and hazerd function.
In this paper, an estimate has been made for parameters and the reliability function for Transmuted power function (TPF) distribution through using some estimation methods as proposed new technique for white, percentile, least square, weighted least square and modification moment methods. A simulation was used to generate random data that follow the (TPF) distribution on three experiments (E1 , E2 , E3) of the real values of the parameters, and with sample size (n=10,25,50 and 100) and iteration samples (N=1000), and taking reliability times (0< t < 0) . Comparisons have been made between the obtained results from the estimators using mean square error (MSE). The results showed the
... Show MoreSpent hydrodesulfurization (Co-Mo/γ-Al2O3) catalyst generally contains valuable metals like molybdenum (Mo), cobalt (Co), aluminium (Al) on a supporting material, such as γ-Al2O3. In the present study, a two stages alkali/acid leaching process was conducted to study leaching of cobalt, molybdenum and aluminium from Co-Mo/γ-Al2O3 catalyst. The acid leaching of spent catalyst, previously treated by alkali solution to remove molybdenum, yielded a solution rich in cobalt and aluminium.
The paper aims is to solve the problem of choosing the appropriate project from several service projects for the Iraqi Martyrs Foundation or arrange them according to the preference within the targeted criteria. this is done by using Multi-Criteria Decision Method (MCDM), which is the method of Multi-Objective Optimization by Ratios Analysis (MOORA) to measure the composite score of performance that each alternative gets and the maximum benefit accruing to the beneficiary and according to the criteria and weights that are calculated by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The most important findings of the research and relying on expert opinion are to choose the second project as the best alternative and make an arrangement acco
... Show MoreThin a-:H films were grown successfully by fabrication of designated ingot followed by evaporation onto glass slides. A range of growth conditions, Ge contents, dopant concentration (Al and As), and substrate temperature, were employed. Stoichiometry of the thin films composition was confirmed using standard surface techniques. The structure of all films was amorphous. Film composition and deposition parameters were investigated for their bearing on film electrical and optical properties. More than one transport mechanism is indicated. It was observed that increasing substrate temperature, Ge contents, and dopant concentration lead to a decrease in the optical energy gap of those films. The role of the deposition conditions on value
... Show MoreThis research presents a method for calculating stress ratio to predict fracture pressure gradient. It also, describes a correlation and list ideas about this correlation. Using the data collected from four wells, which are the deepest in southern Iraqi oil fields (3000 to 6000) m and belonged to four oil fields. These wells are passing through the following formations: Y, Su, G, N, Sa, Al, M, Ad, and B. A correlation method was applied to calculate fracture pressure gradient immediately in terms of both overburden and pore pressure gradient with an accurate results. Based on the results of our previous research , the data were used to calculate and plot the effective stresses. Many equations relating horizontal effective stress and vertica
... Show MoreThis paper present a simple and sensitive method for the determination of DL-Histidine using FIA-Chemiluminometric measurement resulted from oxidation of luminol molecule by hydrogen peroxide in alkaline medium in the presence of DL-Histidine. Using 70?l. sample linear plot with a coefficient of determination 95.79% for (5-60) mmol.L-1 while for a quadratic relation C.O.D = 96.44% for (5-80) mmol.L-1 and found that guadratic plot in more representative. Limit of detection was 31.93 ?g DL-Histidine (S/N = 3), repeatability of measurement was less that 5% (n=6). Positive and negative ion interferances was removed by using minicolume containing ion exchange resin located after injection valve position.