The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

In this research، a comparison has been made between the robust estimators of (M) for the Cubic Smoothing Splines technique، to avoid the problem of abnormality in data or contamination of error، and the traditional estimation method of Cubic Smoothing Splines technique by using two criteria of differentiation which are (MADE، WASE) for different sample sizes and disparity levels to estimate the chronologically different coefficients functions for the balanced longitudinal data which are characterized by observations obtained through (n) from the independent subjects، each one of them is measured repeatedly by group of  specific time points (m)،since the frequent measurements within the subjects are almost connected an

The electric quadrupole moments for some scandium isotopes (41, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47Sc) have been calculated using the shell model in the proton-neutron formalism. Excitations out of major shell model space were taken into account through a microscopic theory which is called core polarization effectives. The set of effective charges adopted in the theoretical calculations emerging about the core polarization effect. NushellX@MSU code was used to calculate one body density matrix (OBDM). The simple harmonic oscillator potential has been used to generate the single particle matrix elements. Our theoretical calculations for the quadrupole moments used the two types of effective interactions to obtain the best interaction compared with the exp

  Abstract

      The nuclear structure of ^28-40Si isotopes toward neutron dripline has been investigated in framework of shell model with Skyrme-Hrtree-Fock method using certain Skyrme parameterizations. Moreover, investigations of static properties such as nuclear densities for proton, neutron, mass, and, charge densities with their corresponding rms radii, neutron skin thicknesses, binding energies, separation energies, shell gap, and pairing gap have been performed using the most recent Skyrme parameterization. The calculated results have been compared with available experimental data to identify which of these parameterizations introduced equivalent results with the ex

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models

Background: In this study we evaluate the effect of plasma treatment (oxygen and argon) gas in two different exposure times on the surface of heat cure and light cure acrylic resin. Materials and method: 100 specimens of heat cure and light cure acrylic resin were fabricated. The measurements of the samples were (75mm, 25mm and 4.5mm) length, width and depth respectively with stopper of 3mm depth. Two types of gas used oxygen and argon in (5,10) min by using (DC-glow discharge plasma device) then we apply cold cure soft lining material, with the help of Instron machine we test the shear stress value. Results: A highly significant effect after argon and oxygen gases treatment in both 5 and 10 min exposure times on shear bond strength to soft

Background: Propolis has received great interest because of its wide range antimicrobial activity. Propolis also called (bee glue) due to its collection by (Apismellifera) honeybees from various plants resinous substance. The aim of this study was to determine the antibacterial effect of propolis extracts (aqueous and alcoholic) on anaerobic periodontal pathogen namely Aggregatibacteractinomycetemcomitans. Materials and Methods: Strains of Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans wasisolated from pockets of systemically healthy patients aged between 35-55 years old suffering from chronic periodontitis with pocket depths of 5-6 mm, the bacteria cultured on special blood Agar plates solid media. Propolis was extracted by using water and alcohol.

‎تم في هذه الدراسة ، تزيين ‏رقائق أكسيد الجرافين (‏GO‏) بجسيمات ‏كوبلتيت النيكل النانوية ‏NiCo2O4‎‏(‏NC‏) عن طريق الترسيب في ‏الموقع ، وتم استخدام المتراكب ‏المحضر (‏NC: GO‏) كسطح ماز لإزالة ‏صبغة الميثيل الخضراء ( ‏MG‏) من ‏المحاليل المائية. تم التحقق من ‏التغطية الناجحة لأوكسيد الجرافين ‏بجزيئات كوبلتيت النيكل النانوية ‏‏(‏NC‏) باستخدام دراسات ‏FT-IR‏ وحيود ‏الأشعة السينية (‏XRD‏). كانت أحجام  ‏الجسيم

An experimental investigation of natural convection heat transfer from an isothermal horizontal,vertical and inclined heated square flat plates with and without circular hole, were carried out in two cases, perforated plates without an impermeable adiabatic hole "open core" and perforated plates with an impermeable adiabatic hole "closed core" by adiabatic plug. The experiments covered the laminar region with a range of Rayleih number of (1.11x106 ≤RaLo≤4.39x106 ), at Prandtle number (Pr=0.7). Practical experiments have been done with variable inclination angles from horizon (Ф=0o ,45o,90o,135oand 180o),facing upward (0o≤Ф<90o), and downward (90o
≤Ф<180o). The results showed that the temperature gradient increases whi