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تحليل وقياس العلاقة بين الدين العام وسرعة دوران النقود في الاقتصاد العراقي للمدة من 1990-2019 حسب منهجية ARDL
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ان دراسة الدين العام في اقتصاد ريعي شديد الارتباط بسوق خارجية شديدة التقلب يعد من الدراسات الحساسة كونها تضع امام الباحثين القيود المالية التي سيتكبل بها اقتصاد ضعيف قليل التنوع يعتمد على سوق الطاقة مما يفقد حالة الاستدامة المالية وتفقد الدولة القدرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها المالية ، ان الحدود الامنة للدين العام يجب ان تكون بنسبة لا تتجاوز 60% من الناتج المحلي الاجمالي حسب اتفاقية ماسترخت الخاصة بمجلس الاتحاد الاوربي التابع للاتحاد النقدي الاوربي غير ان الدين العام في اقتصاد ريعي قد تكون هذه النسبة الامنة حسب الاتفاقيات يكون خارج امكانات الدولة في استدامة الدين مع الحفاظ على الالتزامات المالية للدولة في حدود الايرادات المالية المتقلبة بسبب ارتباطها بعوائد سوق النفط الشديد التأثر بالإحداث السياسية قبل الاقتصادية ، ومن البديهي جدا ان اي سلوك مالي للدولة باعتبارها القدم الثقيلة في الاقتصاد لابد من ان تترك تأثيرات جانبية على المتغيرات النقدية وابرزها هي سرعة دوران النقود من خلال قناة سعر الفائدة والاستثمار نتيجة مزاحمة الدولة للقطاع الخاص على موارد مالية محدودة لذا سنتعرف على هذه العلاقة في سياق بحثنا هذا .

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
discriminate analysis and logistic regression by use partial least square
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Abstract

   The method binery logistic regression and linear discrimint function of the most important statistical methods used in the classification and prediction when the data of the kind of binery (0,1) you can not use the normal regression therefore resort to binary logistic regression and linear discriminant function in the case of two group in the case of a Multicollinearity problem between the data (the data containing high correlation) It became not possible to use binary logistic regression and linear discriminant function, to solve this problem, we resort to Partial least square regression.

In this, search th

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Bayesian Tobit Quantile Regression Model Using Double Adaptive elastic net and Adaptive Ridge Regression
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     Recently Tobit  Quantile Regression(TQR) has emerged as an important tool in statistical analysis . in order to improve the parameter estimation in (TQR) we proposed Bayesian hierarchical model with double adaptive elastic net technique  and Bayesian hierarchical model with adaptive ridge regression technique .

 in double adaptive elastic net technique we assume  different penalization parameters  for penalization different regression coefficients in both parameters λ1and  λ, also in adaptive ridge regression technique we assume different  penalization parameters for penalization different regression coefficients i

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Some Robust Estimators for Estimate parameters logistic regression model to Binary Response – using simulation)).
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 The logistic regression model of the most important regression models a non-linear which aim getting estimators have a high of efficiency, taking character more advanced in the process of statistical analysis for being a models appropriate form of Binary Data.                                                          

Among the problems that appear as a result of the use of some statistical methods I

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparing Several Nonlinear Estimators for Regression Function
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The aim of this paper is to estimate a nonlinear regression function of the Export of the crude oil Saudi (in Million Barrels) as a function of the number of discovered fields.

 Through studying the behavior of the data we show that its behavior was not followed a linear pattern or can put it in a known form so far there was no possibility to see a general trend resulting from such exports.

We use different nonlinear estimators to estimate a regression function, Local linear estimator, Semi-parametric as well as an artificial neural network estimator (ANN).

The results proved that the (ANN) estimator is the best nonlinear estimator am

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
ESTIMATION OF COEFFICIENTS AND SCALE PARAMETER FOR LINEAR (TYPE 1) EXTREME VALUE REGRESSION MODEL FOR LARGEST VALUES WITH APPLICATIONS
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In this paper we estimate the coefficients and scale parameter in linear regression model depending on the residuals are of type 1 of extreme  value distribution for the largest values . This can be regard as an improvement for the studies with the smallest values . We study two estimation methods ( OLS  & MLE ) where we resort to Newton – Raphson (NR) and Fisher Scoring methods to get MLE estimate because the difficulty of using the usual approach with MLE . The relative efficiency criterion is considered beside to the statistical inference procedures for the extreme value regression model of type 1 for largest values . Confidence interval , hypothesis testing for both scale parameter and regression coefficients

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