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Prediction of Urban Spatial Changes Pattern Using Markov Chain
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Urban land uses of all kinds are the constituent elements of the urban spatial structure. Because of the influence of economic and social factors, cities in general are characterized by the dynamic state of their elements over time. Urban functions occur in a certain way with different spatial patterns. Hence, urban planners and the relevant urban management teams should understand the future spatial pattern of these changes by resorting to quantitative models in spatial planning. This is to ensure that future predictions are made with a high level of accuracy so that appropriate strategies can be used to address the problems arising from such changes. The Markov chain method is one of the quantitative models used in spatial planning to analyze time series based on current values to predict the series values in the future without relying on the past or historical values of the studied series. The research questions in this study are formulated thus: What are the trends in the patterns of urban land use functions in Al-Najaf, Iraq, between 2005 to 2015? How can the values of the changes be predicted for the year 2025? The hypothesis is based on the increasing spatial functional change of land use patterns in the city during the study period due to various economic and social factors. Making accurate predictions of the size of spatial changes motivates this study as a guide to urban management towards developing possible solutions to address the effects of this change, as well as the need to understand its causes and future upward trends. The contribution of this article is the presented outlook for spatial functions for the next 10 years. The computations using the Markov chain model will enable management to understand future relations and develop appropriate policies to reduce the hazards of unplanned changes in the city. Results show that residential posts, slums, and commercial activities are getting worse, while change values for industrial functions and other things are going down. 

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 08 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Quantitative detection and correlation of Epstein - Barr Virus in plasma with gingivitis and severity of chronic periodontitis by using real-time polymerase chain reaction technique
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Background: The main purpose of this study is to find if there is any correlation between the level of C-reactive protein (CRP) in gingival crevicular fluid with its serum level in chronic periodontitis patients and to explore the differences between them according to the probing depth. Materials and methods: Forty seven male subjects enrolled in this study. Thirty males with chronic periodontitis considered as study group whom further subdivided according to probing depth into subgroup 1 with pocket depth ≤6mm, subgroup 2 with pocket depth >6mm. The other 17 subjects considered as controls. For all subjects, clinical examination where done for periodontal parameters plaque index (PLI), gingival index (GI), bleeding on probing (BOP),

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 11 2023
Journal Name
Communications In Mathematical Biology And Neuroscience
Three-species food chain model with cannibalism in the second level
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This article suggests and explores a three-species food chain model that includes fear effects, refuges depending on predators, and cannibalism at the second level. The Holling type II functional response determines food consumption between stages of the food chain. This study examined the long-term behavior and impacts of the suggested model's essential elements. The model's solution properties were studied. The existence and stability of every probable equilibrium point were examined. The persistence needs of the system have been determined. It was discovered what conditions could lead to local bifurcation at equilibrium points. Appropriate Lyapunov functions are utilized to investigate the overall dynamics of the system. To support the a

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
The International Journal Of Central Banking
USING SOME NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATORS OF THE ERROR CORRECTION MODEL TO MEASURE THE EFFECT OF CHANGES IN BANK DEPOSITS ON THE MONEY SUPPLY
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In this paper, the effect of changes in bank deposits on the money supply in Iraq was studied by estimating the error correction model (ECM) for monthly time series data for the period (2010-2015) . The Philips Perron was used to test the stationarity and also we used Engle and Granger to test the cointegration . we used cubic spline and local polynomial estimator to estimate regression function .The result show that local polynomial was better than cubic spline with the first level of cointegration.

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Monitoring Changes in the Spectral Reflectivity of Baghdad City and the Impact of the Atmospheric Elements on it using R.S and GIS
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Abstract<p>Climate change in recent years has greatly affected the distribution of ground covers. Monitoring these changes has become very easy due to the development of remote sensitivity science and the use of satellites to monitor these changes. The aim of this research is to monitor changes in the spectral reflectivity of the Baghdad governorate center for the month (March, June, September, December) of the year 2021 using remote sensing and satellite images Sentinel 2 and knowing the climate imact on them. Fifty-one samples were selected for four types of ground cover (agricultural land, water, buildings and open space) and their spectral reflectivity was calculated using satellite images. </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Apr 01 2021
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Reality analysis of the state of spatial distribution of green areas using geographic information systems (GIS) – The holy city of Najaf as a case study
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Abstract<p>Green areas are an essential component of city planning, as they serve as an outlet for them to spend their free time, in addition to the environmental role that these green areas play in improving the city’s climate by purifying the air and beautifying the city. The study’s problem is summarized in identifying the appropriateness of the current spatial distribution of green areas in the city of Najaf with the current population densities and the pattern in which green areas are distributed using GIS and knowing the per capita share of those green areas in the city, the research assumes that the inconsistency of spaces between regions Green and residential neighbourhoods need to c</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Jul 31 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Rigid Trunk Sewer Deterioration Prediction Models using Multiple Discriminant and Neural Network Models in Baghdad City, Iraq
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering Science And Technology (jestec)
Water Quality Assessment And Total Dissolved Solids Prediction For Tigris River In Baghdad City Using Mathematical Models
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Total dissolved solids are at the top of the parameters list of water quality that requires investigations for planning and management, especially for irrigation and drinking purposes. If the quality of water is sufficiently predictable, then appropriate management is possible. In the current study, Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were used as indicators of water quality and for the prediction of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) along the Tigris River, in Baghdad city. To build these models five water parameters were selected from the intakes of four water treatment plants on the Tigris River, for the period between 2013 and 2017. The selected water parameters were Total Dissolved Solids (TDS

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Rigid trunk sewer deterioration prediction models using multiple discriminant and neural network models in Baghdad city, Iraq
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The deterioration of buried sewers during their lifetime can be affected by several factors leading to bad performance and can damage the infrastructure similar to other engineering structures. The Hydraulic deterioration of the buried sewers caused by sewer blockages while the structural deterioration caused by sewer collapses due to sewer specifications and the surrounding soil characteristics and the groundwater level. The main objective of this research is to develop deterioration models, which are used to predict changes in sewer condition that can provide assessment tools for determining the serviceability of sewer networks in Baghdad city. Two deterioration models were developed and tested using statistical software SPSS, the

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 18 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 26 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Serum Zinc and Copper Changes in Male Infertility
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Objective: The aim of this study to detect the correlation between trace elements such as zinc, copper and
spermatogenesis, sperm viability and motility.
Methodology: Serum and semen samples were collected from one hundred twenty patients with age ranged (20-
50 years) attending the high institute for Embryo Research and Infertility Treatment/ Baghdad University, in
addition to thirty fertile males their age comparable to that of patients. The period of this study was from June
2004 until the end of October 2004.
Results: The result of routine seminal fluid analysis of all infertile males was divided according to WHO, (1999) limit
into four groups: Asthenospermia(A), Asthenoteratospermia(AT), Oligoasthenoteratospermi

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