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A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes

Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of the Elderly's Environmental Practices Concerning Fall prevention at Governmental Elderly Homes in Baghdad City

Objective :To evaluate elderly's environmental practices concerning fall prevention at governmental elderly care homes in Baghdad city. Methodology: A quazi- Experimental study was carried out in governmental elderly care homes at Baghdad city, during the period 1st, June 2014 to 30th November, 2014 , selected a purposive " Non – probability " sample of (40) elderly men and women aged (60) years old and over who were resident in governmental elderly care homes " Al Ceelakh and Al Sader elderly care homes", the data was collected through the use of constructed questionnaire that consist of (23) items,

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2020
Journal Name
Palarch’s Journal Of Archaeology Of Egypt/egyptology
Delivering an information resources service to users' homes to ensure Healthcare during COVID -19: Case study"

ABSTRACT University college libraries are one of the most important information institutions for all researchers during their research and study life, they seeks to provide information sources such as; books, periodicals, theses, databases, Inquiry service and answering questions services in various disciplines to achieve its goals. In 2020, college libraries of all types stepped up to meet the needs of their users' as they responded to the impacts of COVID-19, also extended necessary lifelines to community members facing job losses, healthcare crises, and remote work and learning during an unprecedented and uncertain time. The research aim to identifying the services provided to the postgraduate students users at University of Baghdad coll

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 05 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Poisson Regression and Conway Maxwell Poisson Models Using Simulation

Regression models are one of the most important models used in modern studies, especially research and health studies because of the important results they achieve. Two regression models were used: Poisson Regression Model and Conway-Max Well-  Poisson), where this study aimed to make a comparison between the two models and choose the best one between them using the simulation method and at different sample sizes (n = 25,50,100) and with repetitions (r = 1000). The Matlab program was adopted.) to conduct a simulation experiment, where the results showed the superiority of the Poisson model through the mean square error criterion (MSE) and also through the Akaiki criterion (AIC) for the same distribution.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
كلية التربية للبنات
The rights of orphans in the Old Testament and Islam, a Comparative Study

Allah Almighty has aggrandized the position of orphans and elevated their status in the society and has given the graces for those who sponsor the orphan and care for and protecting them, even those who rub their heads. The divine care is manifested in the verses of the Holy Bible and the Holy Quran. Therefore, the whole world cared for the orphan, and called for the rights of the orphans in the conferences and the channels. But all that was little effort that does not meet what the orphan need and some were only ink on paper that were not applied. All that mentioned above is necessary in dealing with the study (the rights of orphans in the Old Testament and Islam, a Comparative Study). The study was divided into a Preface and four inquirie

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 03 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Kufa For Chemical Sciences
Biochemical Role of Blood Electrolytes in Old Iraqi Patients with COVID-19

Background: Age progression is regarded as a critical risk factor in morbidity and mortality because of a weakened immune system. Although various studies have dealt with electrolyte imbalance in COVID-19 patients, the outcomes of these studies were partially understood. Objective: The current study aims to determine some biochemical parameters in old Iraqi COVID-19 patients and highlight the outcomes according to the aging role in the development of COVID-19 by suggesting new mechanisms. Materials and methods: forty COVID-19 patients were enrolled in the current study and divided into two groups: Gm includes (20) men, and Gf includes  (20) women. The parameters (Na+, K+, Cl-, LDH, and Hb ) were determined in sera of patients and c

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Business incubators the entrance of organizations to shift towards pioneering performance a study by a number of employees of the technical education organizations in mosul

     The importance of this research is due to its importance goals, Which are about the attempt of researchers to investigate the probability of depending on businesses, environments to transform organizations, performance in away that enhance the leading  role of organizations  in their environments , and through views of a number of the staff working in the foundation of technical institutes in Mosul.  .

     After deciding the methodology of the study that ,in one hand ,performs the goals of the study , and achieving a suitable theoretical framework to present the concepts of businesses, environments and the leadin

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Application
Forecasting enhancement using a hodrick-prescott filter

: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier mod

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agricultural And Statistical Sciences,
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Scopus
Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison Of Some Semiparametric Estimators For consumption function Regression

    This article aims to explore the importance of estimating the a semiparametric regression function ,where we suggest a new estimator beside the other combined estimators and then we make a comparison among them by using simulation technique . Through the simulation results we find  that the suggest estimator is the best with the first and second models ,wherealse for the third model we find Burman and Chaudhuri (B&C) is best.

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Efficiency of Apple Vinegar as A Solvent in Comparison to Water and Ethanol for The Extraction of Some Plants used Against Candida Spp. Biofilm Formation

Apple vinegar has many uses that include burn and wound healing and as an antimicrobial agent against different microorganisms, but not as a solvent. Therefore, this study aimed to use commercial apple vinegar as solvent to the plants of  roselle (Hibiscus sabdariffa), green tea (Camellia sinensis), and clove (Syzygium aromaticum). The effects of apple-vinegar extracts of these plants were compared with those of aqueous and ethanolic extracts against biofilm formation by Candida genus. Clove vinegar extract demonstrated antibiofilm activity against C. albicans, alone (2.4907± 0.382) or in combination with the antifungal agents fluconazole (1.689±0.33), nystati

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