Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).
This paper aims at presenting a comparison between objective and subjective tests . This paper attemptsto shed light on these two aspects of tests and make do a compression by using suitable techniques for objective and subjective tests .
The paper compares between the two techniques used by the objective and subjective tests respectively, the time and efforts required by each type, the extent to which each type can be reliable, and the skills each type is suitable to measure.
The paper shows that objective tests, on the contrary of the subjective ones, encourages guess> Objective tests are used to test specific areas of langua
... Show MoreChange the morphological characteristics with the change of the factors affecting it has been shown that the Tigris River has the characteristics of the morphology of the low values in terms of depth, width and perimeter wet and gradient which in turn affected the morphological and other characteristics in terms of the direction and pattern of runoff came through the study of 48 cross-section is taken of the Tigris River Year 2008 by section for each 1 km, it has been shown that the average width of the Tigris River does not exceed 221.1 meters and the average depth of 3.9 meters either wet ocean amounted to 268.9 meters and changed the cross-section area of the last section at a rate of 4594.3 square meters, and through the study turned
... Show MoreAsphaltene is one of the fractions of the crude oil which is soluble in aromatics such as benzene or toluene and insoluble in alkane such as n-heptane, n-pentane or petroleum ether (mixture of alkane compounds). Asphaltene precipitation is one of the most common problems that sometimes occurs in both oil recovery and refinery processes as a result of changing in pressure, oil composition, or temperature. Therefore the stability of asphaltene in the crude oil must be studied to show the tendency of it for precipitating asphaltene to prevent it (Asphaltene precipitation and deposition problem) and eliminate the burden of high treatment costs.
In the present study, saturate, aromatic, resin and asphaltene (SAR
... Show MoreThe novel was generally distinguished from other literary arts in its connection with the living reality as an imaginative practice that relies on political, economic, social, intellectual and cultural references and as a crucial tool in reading cultural references and dive deep into reality. As every novelist has a vision to embody this reality. As every novelist has a vision to embody this reality. The novel of ("Exceeded border by Hammed Al-Kafa’i) is a considered a fertile field for presenting social issues in their apparent structure and revealing the cultural patterns behind them which lies in its deep structure. The novel here moves its characters in its imaginary world in a way that it becomes more capable of adaptation and crysta
... Show MoreA condense study was done to compare between the ordinary estimators. In particular the maximum likelihood estimator and the robust estimator, to estimate the parameters of the mixed model of order one, namely ARMA(1,1) model.
Simulation study was done for a varieties the model. using: small, moderate and large sample sizes, were some new results were obtained. MAPE was used as a statistical criterion for comparison.
After the democratic transformation in 2003 in Iraq, young people waited a lot to take their real opportunity to participate in politics, but most of the laws regulating political and electoral work have been unfair to young people, despite developments in laws and legislation, but opportunities did not allow young people to participate in politics, which was reflected It negatively affected their participation in voting and nomination, and even their assumption of public office and positions, which is why they complained about the ruling class and the political system through protests, or when they refused to vote, and this is reflected in the recent parliamentary elections and low participation rates
Recently, Social Sustainability has gained significant value as it was considered by the late studies as a principal dimension along with the environmental and economic sustainability. And because of, on the other hand, the significant social role of the school for forming the student’s personality, this research is an appeal for rehabilitating and promoting Iraqi Schools according the issue of social sustainability.As there is no evaluation for the Iraqi Schools, the research is dedicated to this problem, aiming to carry out the stated evaluation and define the design treatments needed for the rehabilitation process. To achieve this goal, a theoretical background for the concept of social sustainability, its criteria, the school and i
... Show MoreThe transfer of chemical pollutants from bottled water into water due to heat, sunlight and poor storage is one of the most serious threats to human health around the world, the objective of this study was to estimate the pH value and the transport of heavy metals from plastic bottles to water, for this purpose, 30 bottles of water for 10 local brands were collected and divided into three groups, the first was left at room temperature 25°C, The second was placed in a heat oven at 25°C and the third in another oven at 50°C for two weeks. The results showed significant differences at (P<0.05) between water samples, pH value and concentrations of heavy metals (Sb, Pb, Ni, Cu, Cr, Cd and Fe) we
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The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he
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