Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).
The diversity of ideas and freedom of expression among the authors, who are looking for what's new serve the goals of musical expression and aesthetic, which calls for the use of traditional instruments with the formation of the great instrumental music and well-known orchestra, is a major challenge from several quarters, the failure of some of those musical instruments or limited potential or method performed by costly sometimes prevents the use of a permanent in this great configuration, had to be the emergence of some of the problems faced by the author and musician on the one hand and the receiver on the other hand, which must be looking for the perfect, some of these musical instrument are used systematically follows the work of the
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The research aimed to test the relationship between the size of investment allocations in the agricultural sector in Iraq and their determinants using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method compared to the Error Correction Model (ECM) approach. The time series data for the period from 1990 to 2021 was utilized. The analysis showed that the estimates obtained using the ECM were more accurate and significant than those obtained using the OLS method. Johansen's test indicated the presence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the size of investment allocations and their determinants. The results of th
... Show MoreIn the present study, the aim was made to identify the relationship between thyroid autoimmunity (TAI) and female infertility. The study was performed on 30 infertile women and 22 age-matched healthy fertile control age (33 ± 5 years). Overall, serum prolactin (PRL), thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) assay is the key test for the diagnosis and management of hypo and hyperthyroidism. Anti-TPO Ab and anti-TG Ab were measured. The mean ± SE of serum PRL (31.080 ± 3.06) ng/ml was significantly (P<0.05) higher in infertile group compared with control (16.191±1.36) ng/ml. Serum TSH was significantly (P<0.05) higher in infertile group (5.689 ± 1.12) µIU/ml compared to control group (2.282 ± 0.18) µIU/ml. The prevalence of positive
... Show MoreThis paper presents a grey model GM(1,1) of the first rank and a variable one and is the basis of the grey system theory , This research dealt properties of grey model and a set of methods to estimate parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the least square Method (LS) , weighted least square method (WLS), total least square method (TLS) and gradient descent method (DS). These methods were compared based on two types of standards: Mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and after comparison using simulation the best method was applied to real data represented by the rate of consumption of the two types of oils a Heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and has been applied several tests to
... Show MoreLet R be a commutative ring , the pseudo – von neuman regular graph of the ring R is define as a graph whose vertex set consists of all elements of R and any two distinct vertices a and b are adjacent if and only if , this graph denoted by P-VG(R) , in this work we got some new results a bout chromatic number of P-VG(R).
This paper included derivative method for the even r power sums of even integer numbers formula to approach high even (r+2) power sums of even integer numbers formula so on we can approach from derivative odd r power sums of even integer numbers formula to high odd (r+2) power sums of even integer numbers formula this derivative excellence have ability to used by computer programming language or any application like Microsoft Office Excel. Also this research discovered the relationship between r power sums of even integer numbers formula and both formulas for same power sums of odd integer numbers formula and for r power sums of all integer numbers formula in another way.
Class consciousness represents its highest stage in the contemporary Marxist thought of Rosa Luxemburg and Antonio Gramsci, not just a reflection of reality, but rather a dialectical form through the reflection of consciousness on reality and its reproduction. The superiority over the infrastructure (historical materialism) promised the revolutionary class consciousness to be achieved spontaneously, and the seeds of a breakthrough are mass strikes, denying the role of the party to organize this awareness, limiting its role to the interconnection between classes, emphasizing the role of socialist democracy as a conscious vanguard for organizing spontaneity, struggle, and developing awareness during the revolutionary process and the leader
... Show MoreLinear regression is one of the most important statistical tools through which it is possible to know the relationship between the response variable and one variable (or more) of the independent variable(s), which is often used in various fields of science. Heteroscedastic is one of the linear regression problems, the effect of which leads to inaccurate conclusions. The problem of heteroscedastic may be accompanied by the presence of extreme outliers in the independent variables (High leverage points) (HLPs), the presence of (HLPs) in the data set result unrealistic estimates and misleading inferences. In this paper, we review some of the robust
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